On January 1, 2019, Klaus F. Zimmermann will become the President of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES), but will keep his position as the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO).
On 15 July 2018, representatives of EBES and the GLO had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) about establishing a long-term collaboration on educational and research activities between both organizations. Among other issues, the cooperation includes the exchange of academic documents, the organization of events, joint publications and other means to foster research.
GLO intends to organize a session at the Bali EBES 27 conference on January 9-11, 2019: Extended deadline is November 9, 2018.
GLO will organize three sessions at the May 29-31, 2019 EBES conference in Coventry, UK, following the very successful experiences of the first joint event organized in May 2018 in Berlin (EBES 25).
After two days of scientific discussions, the joint FOM-GLO-KAS Conference about “Climate Change and Human Responses” (DETAILS) co-organized by the Global Labor Organization (GLO), FOM University of Applied Sciences and Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) met on 2 November 2018 German business at and with the German Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong for a Breakfast Discussion.
The meeting ended a four weeks trip of GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann to Beijing and Hong Kong to discuss climate change. The trip was exceptionally successful, and the perfect ending in Hong Kong was celebrated at the airport with champagne and beer…. Zimmermann returned home after lunch to Bonn/Germany.
The Breakfast Discussion was chaired by Andreas Oberheitmann (FOM, RWI and GLO) and welcomed by Wolfgang Ehmann, Head of the German Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong. The keynote speeches were provided by Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment, and Eric CHUNG, President and CEO of Siemens Ltd. Hong Kong and Member of the Board of Directors of the Business Environment Council (BEC), Hong Kong. Peter Hefele, Head of the Hong Kong Konrad-Adenauer Foundation was organizing this part of the event.
From the left above: Manfred Fischedick, Andreas Oberheitmann and Eric Chung.
Above: GLO Fellows Christopher Parsons, Almas Heshmati, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, and Xi Chen under the observation of Peter Hefele, Head of the Hong Kong basis of the Konrad-AdenauerFoundation.
GLO experts debating at the German Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong about the consequences of climate change for business and humanity:
– Xi Cheng, Professor at Yale University and GLO Cluster Lead “Environment and Human Resources”.
– Almas Heshmati, Professor at Jönköping International Business School, Sogang University and GLO, Sweden/South Korea, and GLO Cluster Lead “Green Employment Creation”.
– Andreas Oberheitmann, Professor at FOM, RWI and GLO.
– Christopher Parsons, Professor at the University of Western Australia and GLO.
– VenkatachalamAnbumozhi, Senior Economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and GLO.
– Klaus F. Zimmermann, Professor at Bonn University (em.), Honorary Professor at the Renmin University of China, UNU-MERIT, and President of the GLO
Wolfgang Ehmann,Manfred Fischedick and Andreas Oberheitmann (from the left).
PROGRAM; FRIDAY, 2ND NOVEMBER 2018
8:30 Breakfast Discussion (in cooperation with the German Chamber of Commerce) Climate Change and Human Responses: How to prepare for Change?
Venue: German Chamber of Commerce, 3601, Tower One, Lippo Centre,
89 Queensway, Admiralty, Hong Kong
Chair: Andreas OBERHEITMANN, FOM, RWI and GLO
Welcoming Remarks – Wolfgang EHMANN, German Chamber of Commerce
– Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and GLO
Keynote Speeches (10 min each) – Wolfgang EHMANN, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment – Eric CHONG, President and CEO of Siemens Ltd. Hong Kong; Member of the
Board of Directors of Business Environment Council (BEC), Hong Kong
Q&A
10:00 End of Event
The three organizers of the joint FOM-GLO-KAS Conference on “Climate Change and Human Responses” at the Hong Kong basis of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation: Peter Hefele, Klaus F. Zimmermann and Andreas Oberheitmann.
The joint FOM-GLO-KAS Conference about “Climate Change and Human Responses” scheduled for 31 October – 2 November 2018 in Hong Kong has begun on Wednesday, 31 October 2018. The event is co-organized by the Global Labor Organization (GLO), FOM University of Applied Sciences and Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS). It will continue November 1-2. REPORT SECOND DAY; REPORT THIRD DAY.
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st Century. It will have severe consequences for societies and economies and affect global production chains, output, labor markets and well-being. Rising sea levels, floods and droughts, changing agricultural patterns will lead to unforeseeable consequences on human well-being, public health, labor performance and productivity. The innovative conference deals with the under-researched human consequences of climate change and brings together researchers, business, the policy community and civil society in a city which will be heavily affected by climate change, Hong Kong.
Organizers are Peter Hefele (KAS RECAP, Hongkong), Andreas Oberheitmann (FOM, RWI and GLO) and Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and GLO). Participants are renowned researchers, politicians and entrepreneurs from Hong Kong, Asia, Europe and the US.
The conference opened on Wednesday with a keynote speech by GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann on “Climate Change: The Global Labor Challenge”.
GLO has recently provided a number of Discussion Papers on the topic, see below a listing and the links.
THE PROGRAM: “Climate Change and Human Responses”
WEDNESDAY, 31ST OCTOBER 2018 Venue: Meeting Room Whampoa 1&2, 1/F, Hotel Harbour Grand Kowloon, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
16:00 Registration
16:15 Welcoming Remarks
– Peter HEFELE, KAS RECAP, Hong Kong
– Andreas OBERHEITMANN, FOM Hochschule, RWI and GLO
16:45 Keynote Speech Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and GLO Climate Change: The Global Labor Challenge
17:15 Q&A
18:00 End of Discussion
19:00 Dinner
Keynote Speech: Ir Albert LAI, CEO of Carbon Care Asia, Hong Kong Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Hong Kong´s Innovation System
Venue: Grand Salon, Hotel Harbour Grand Kowloon
THURSDAY, 1ST NOVEMBER 2018
9:00 Session 1: Impact of Climate Change on Regions and Industry Sectors
Chair: ZHANG Yifan, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and GLO – Manfred FISCHEDICK, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment Climate Change and (Basic) Industry: Options and Related Chances and Challenges for a Green Transformation – Andreas OBERHEITMANN, FOM, RWI and GLO Challenges of Climate Change for Coastal Regions and Cities: the Case of China
10:30 Coffee break 11:00 Session 2: Impacts of Climate Change on Global Labor Force and Labour
Markets
Chair: GUO Chaoran, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and GLO
– FENG Shuaizhang, Jinan University and GLO (with CUI Xiaomeng, Jinan University) Climate Variability, Agricultural Productivity and Migration
(video presentation) – CHEN Xi, Yale University and GLO Climate and Environmental Challenges to Health Capital – Christopher PARSONS, The University of Western Australia and GLO Climate Change and Migration, Exit, Voice and Loyalty: A Solution to the Immobility Paradox
13:00 Lunch
Venue: Restaurant Waterfront Bar & Terrace, G/F, Harbour Grand Kowloon
14.00 Session 3: Climate Change: Historical Lessons
Chair: Manfred FISCHEDICK, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment – Almas HESHMATI, Jönköping International Business School, Sogang University
and GLO, Sweden/South Korea What Can We Learn from Environmental Disasters for the Climate Change Challenges? – PEI Qing, Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Mandate of Heaven – Climate change, migration and geopolitical cycles in imperial China
15:30 Coffee Break 15:45 Session 4: Climate Change: How to React?
Chair: Anbumozhi VENKATACHALAM, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East
Asia (ERIA) – Astghik MAVISAKALYAN, Curtin University and GLO Gender and Climate Change: Do Female Parliamentarians Make a Difference? Eileen GALLAGHER, BSR (Business for Social Responsibility), Hong Kong How Business Can Manage Climate Risk in Southeast Asia
17:00 Coffee Break
17:20 KAS–CUHK Students Forum
(in cooperation with the Faculty of Law/Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)
“Climate Change and Human Responses”
Chair: Peter HEFELE, KAS RECAP, Hong Kong / Anjle GUPTA, CUHK, Hong Kong
Welcoming Remarks: – Anatole BOUTE, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)
Statements (each 5–10 mins)
– LL.M-Master Course Student, CUHK
Discussion
18:00 Wrap-up and Concluding Remarks – Andreas OBERHEITMANN – Peter HEFELE
18:30 Meet at Lobby and Transfer to Restaurant
19:00 Dinner
FRIDAY, 2ND NOVEMBER 2018
8:30 Breakfast Discussion (in cooperation with the German Chamber of Commerce) Climate Change and Human Responses: How to prepare for Change?
Venue: German Chamber of Commerce, 3601, Tower One, Lippo Centre,
89 Queensway, Admiralty, Hong Kong
Chair: Andreas OBERHEITMANN, FOM, RWI and GLO
Welcoming Remarks – Wolfgang EHMANN, German Chamber of Commerce
– Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and GLO
Keynote Speeches (10 min each) – Manfred FISCHEDICK, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment – Eric CHONG, President and CEO of Siemens Ltd. Hong Kong; Member of the
Board of Directors of Business Environment Council (BEC), Hong Kong
Q&A
10:00 End of Event
RECENT GLO Discussion Papers on the issue (freely downloadable):
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Beijing Normal University hosts a larger number of prominent Chinese labor economists lead by GLO Fellow & Professor LI Shi, including the Dean of the Business School, Professor LAI Desheng, and GLO Fellow & Professor Chunbing Xing. Professor LI Shi had invited Klaus F. Zimmermann while resident in Beijing for research talks and a seminar presentation.
On Friday October 26, Zimmermann visited Beijing Normal University to provide a research seminar on “Arsenic Contamination of Drinking Water and Mental Health”.
The seminar was chaired by GLO Fellow & Professor Li Shi, who also introduced Zimmermann to the very large audience. The presentation was based on a revised version of his recent Princeton University Discussion Paper (Working Paper #607, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section). The discussion was lively and Zimmermann has received a larger number of very useful comments.
Zimmermann during his lecture.
LAI Desheng (right), Professor & Dean of the Business School of Beijing Normal University.
AFTER THE HOUR.
Zimmermann, left, with GLO Fellow Professor LI Shi of Beijing Normal University, one of the leading labor scholars of the country.
The Center for China & Globalization (CCG) in Beijing had invited prominent speakers to debate the situation of global trade at the age of Trump in a private setting on 28 October 2018 at the institute. CCG is now the most prominent independent think-tank in China. Moderated by Huiyao Wang, President of the Center for China & Globalization in Beijing (CCG) and Counselor for the Chinese State Council, Hon. Rufus H. Yerxa, President of the National Foreign Trade Council, Former Deputy USTR and Deputy Director General of the WTO, was introducing the confidential and very intensive discussion of the meeting.
From the left: Rufus H. Yerxa, Huiyao Wang, Fan Cui (Professor of the University of International Business and Economics, UIBE), & Zimmermann.
The meeting.
Discussant Zimmermann & Dene Yeaman, Economic Counsellor, Australian Embassy Beijing.
The core discussion group (from the left):
Wallace (Shuaihua) CHEN, Director of International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)
TU Xinquan, Professor and President of China Institute for WTO Studies, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)
Dene YEAMAN, Economic Counsellor, Australian Embassy Beijing
SUN Jie, Former President of Asset Management Association of China, Former Director of Department of Asset Management at China Security Regulatory Commission, CCG Senior Fellow
Ricardo MELÉNDEZ-ORTIZ, CEO of International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)
WANG Huiyao, President of CCG, Counsellor for the Chinese State Council
Hon. Rufus H. YERXA, President of National Foreign Trade Council, Former Deputy USTR and Deputy Director General of the WTO
Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN, President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University
TU Xinquan, Professor and President of China Institute for WTO Studies, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)
CUI Fan, Professor of the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)
Ben MILLER, Head of Multilateral Trade Policy, Economic Section, British Embassy Beijing
Lu Mabel MIAO,Co-founder, Vice President of CCG & Secretary General of CCG
Huiyao (Henry) Wang and Klaus F. Zimmermann have collaborated over the years in other contexts and share a joint vision about the importance of open relationships in a globalized world. Henry Wang and Zimmermann agreed to intensify collaborations between CCG and GLO in the near future.
Through all October, Klaus F. Zimmermann, President GLO and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, has visited Renmin University of China, where he will leave on October 31. He has enjoyed very much the hospitality and the attractive research environment of the university, he is affiliated with so long as an Honorary Professor. He was discussing research with many colleagues, PhD students and Master students.
Invited and chaired by GLO Fellow Jun Han of Remin University, Zimmermann provided a research seminar on “Arsenic Contamination of Drinking Water and Mental Health” on October 25 in front of a large audience. The presentation was based on a revised version of his recent Princeton University Discussion Paper (Working Paper #607, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section).
AFTER THE HOUR
After dinner with faculty of Renmin University on October 27, 2018.
From the left: Liqiu Zhao, Zhong Zhao, Zimmermann, Dean Weiguo Yang, and Xiangbo Liu, all Renmin University of China and GLO Fellows.
In front of the special restaurant with Liqiu Zhao.
After dinner with PhD students of Renmin University on Ocober 24, 2018.
New research in the Discussion Paper Series of the Global Labor Organization (GLO): In its Labor Contract Law introduced in 2008, China strengthened the labor protection for workers. As a consequence, temporary work contracts have to be permanent after 10 years of work duration. Randall Akee (University of California, Los Angeles) with GLO Fellows Ligiu Zhao and Zhong Zhao (both Renmin University of China) have presented evidence that Chinese companies have often dismissed workers to avoid such permanent contracts resulting in large welfare losses among those workers.
GLO Fellow Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China, Beijing, and Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
China’s new Labor Contract Law, which intended to strengthen the labor protection for workers, went into effect on January 1, 2008. The law stipulated that the maximum cumulative duration of successive fixed-term (temporary) labor contracts is 10 years, and employees working for the same employer for more than 10 consecutive years are able to secure an open-ended (permanent) labor contract under the new law, which is highly desirable to employees. However, in order to circumvent the new Labor Contract Law, some employers may have dismissed workers, after the passage of the new law, who had worked in the same firm for more than 10 years. Using data from the 2008 China General Social Survey, we find strong evidence that firms did in fact dismiss their formal-contract employees who have been employed for more than 10 years. Additionally, using a regression discontinuity design based on this exogenous change in unemployment status for this particular group of workers, we show that the dismissed workers suffered significant welfare loss in terms of happiness. Our results are robust to various specifications and placebo tests.
Global international economic relationships are under pressure with unclear consequences for the world economy and individual welfare. The United States of America have left the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, raised tariffs against its trade partners, in particular for China, dismantled the North American Free Trade Agreement, and re-negotiated the terms of bilateral trade with the European Union and Japan.
To debate this development, Dr. Huiyao Wang, President of the Center for China & Globalization in Beijing (CCG) and Counselor for the Chinese State Council, has invited Professor Klaus F. Zimmermann, President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and currently visiting Renmin University of China, and other experts to discuss the situation in a private round-table with Hon. Rufus H. Yerxa, President of National Foreign Trade Council, Former Deputy USTR and Deputy Director General of the WTO. The private event takes place on 28 October 2018 at the Center for China & Globalization in Beijing.
Huiyao Henry Wang and Klaus F. Zimmermann have collaborated over the years in other contexts and share a joint vision about the importance of open relationships in a globalized world. Henry Wang (left) and Zimmermann during an CCG event in Washington DC on trade policies in September 2016.
Posted inEvents, News, Policy|Comments Off on The Future of Global Trade: GLO President Visits the Center for China & Globalization in Beijing for Debate
On October 18, 2018, The China Institute for Employment Research (CIER) at Renmin University of China had celebrated its 10th Anniversary during a regular seasonal meeting to analyze the employment situation at the Chinese labor market. The large and influential meeting of experts from universities, government and business took place in the conference center of Renmin University of China in Beijing. More details.
First row, from the left of GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann: Former Chinese Minister of Labor Xiaojian Zhang, and GLO Fellows and Professors Xiangquan Zeng (Renmin University, Director CIER) & Shi Li (Beijing Normal University).
The global picture of mobility in the next decades of this century will be characterized by huge demographic imbalances between Asia, Europe and Africa; a core player will be China. While the demand and supple forces are so large that they seem to be unavoidable, they could be moderated by managed migration and educational development strategies. To discuss these issues, GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann has met population economist Michele Bruni (Team Leader and Resident Expert of the EU-China Social Protection Reform Project, Beijing, and GLO Fellow; see bio below) for various discussions. One product of this collaboration is this interview with Professor Bruni in a Beijing coffee shop.
QUESTION: Your research seems to suggest that the world will soon experience the largest demographic imbalances that mankind has ever seen. What do you mean by this?
During this century, the growth of working age population will level off as a consequence of the unstoppable demographic transition. But this will result from two opposite tendencies: the working age population of (i) an increasing number of countries will sharply decline, and (ii) of an decreasing number of countries, the poorest ones, it will explode. This is an unprecedented demographic polarization due to the very different stages countries are currently in the demographic transition.
Over the next 40 years, the world’s working age population will increase from 4.85 billion to 6.21 billion, this is a rise of 1.36 billion people and 28%. This results from positive balances of 1.9 billion and negative balances of 524 million people. The shrinking areas are lead by China with a share of 48.1%, followed by Europe (25.6%), Asia excluding China (18.2%), Latin America (4.1%), and the new world countries (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) with only 3.8%. The positive balances will be concentrated in Africa (56.8%) and in Asia (37.6 %).
QUESTION: Although both shrinking and aging, China and Europe plan to play the “fortress game”. Will this be sustainable?
In absence of migration the working age population of Europe will decline by 134 million and that of China by 252 million over the next 4 decades. Can Europe and China really continue on their path of economic growth and social development without migrants? Is technological change capable to increase productivity as then needed?
The idea that AI and robots will produce a dramatic decline of labor needs has been put forward by gurus of the new technologies, economists, and obviously politicians. However, this is not supported by empirical evidence, it is static and ignores second order effects. Computer-based technologies may destroy jobs, but may also create new ones. Furthermore, the human mind has what appears to be a limitless capacity and fantasy to “invent” new needs and a limitless capacity to invent and produce new goods to satisfy them. It seems therefore evident that for Europe, China – and other numerous countries like Japan and Korea that will experience an even more dramatic decline of working age population – mass immigration is not an option, but a necessity.
To play the “fortress game” by exploiting irrational fears and ignore how the labor market works and how strong the demographic trends are would be totally irrational. Moreover, this game would be undermined by the market itself that will find a way to satisfy its labor needs. At the same time it is difficult to believe that Africa, a continent plagued by war, endemic problems of corruption, and a low educational level will be able to outperform the Chinese economic miracle and create over a 40 year period the more than 700 million jobs necessary to satisfy its increase of labor supply. Therefore, African mass emigration is not an option, but unavoidable.
QUESTION: Would global collaboration help, and could educational investments be part of a solution?
The demographic polarization contains the potential solution to the problems it generates: The structural need of labor of the countries in the last phase of the demographic transition will correspond a structural excess of labor in the countries in the first phase. However, it is unrealistic that in the present political context immigration countries will open their countries sufficiently allowing the market to do the matching. In my work, I have suggested a cooperative management of migration flows recognizing that arrival countries will almost only need migrants with a medium or high level of education. Hence, the necessary education and vocational training should be financed by the immigration countries and organized by a specialized international organization in the origin countries.
QUESTION: How can China and Europe cooperate, and could they absorb African excess supply of labor?
Europe and China cannot absorb the huge rise in the job-seeking African population, but significantly reduce the burden of job-creation there to less than 400 million. Still a large number, but together with the Chinese infrastructure initiatives the proposed educational activities could help to give the African continent a push. This analysis also suggest that Europe, China and other Asian countries could join forces to maximize the potential of demand-driven migrations, while given its location and rich experience in this field, Europe could take the role of the “training center” of the project.
QUESTION: So the face of migration in the future is “African”?
Human history has already recorded two “out of Africa” migrations. It is a matter of speculation whether those early migrations were due to economic reasons or, as I suspect, to one of the basic characteristic of primates, curiosity. This century will record the third out of Africa migration, but this time migrants will be pulled by the labor needs of Europe and Asia.
BIO Michele Bruni
Michele Bruni holds a Laurea in Political Sciences from the University of Florence and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. He has taught at the Universities of Calabria, Bologna, and Modena. He is a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and member of the Center for the Analysis of Public Policies of the Faculty of Economics “M. Biagi”, University of Modena (CAPP). At present, Bruni lives in Beijing where he is Team Leader and Resident Expert of the EU-China Social Protection Reform Project. For more than twenty five years he has participated as labor market expert in numerous EU, ADB and WB funded projects in Eastern Europe, Africa and South East Asia countries. In his research, Bruni has focused on the development of stock and flow models and their application to the analysis of labor market and migration.
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