Author Abstract: Whether or not immigration negatively affects the labor market outcomes of natives is an ongoing debate. One of the challenges for empirical evidence is the simultaneity of supply- and demand-side effects. To isolate the demand side, we focus on recent refugees in Germany who are exogenously allocated to districts and largely excluded from the labor market. Using panel data of all German districts between 2010 and 2018 and leveraging variation in the local stock of asylum seekers, we find that 1,000 asylum seekers create 267 jobs on average in a district. This growth effect is mainly driven by a demand for additional labor in service, public administration, and social work. As a consequence, we also observe a significant reduction in the local unemployment rate when more refugees arrive. The dynamic panel data estimates are robust to various sensitivity checks and two different instrumental variable approaches. Quantifying the demand side of immigration adds to our understanding of local labor market dynamics in an increasingly mobile world.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Governments face a potential trade-off between provision for the growing population in retirement and the support of working-age households with low income. Using EUROMOD-based microdata from 28 countries, we (a) quantify the redistribution to the pensioner and non-pensioner populations, (b) study the position of net beneficiaries in the overall income distribution and (c) analyse how taxes and benefits affect the working-age population with low income. Our results provide novel insights into the distributive role of tax-benefit systems across Europe. Interestingly, a strong overall redistribution between households is associated with generous pensions for a portion of the retirees but negatively related to support for low-income households.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Gokhan Karabulut, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin and Asli Cansin Doker (2021), “Democracy and COVID-19 Outcomes”, Economics Letters, Vol. 203, June 2021, 109840 Open Access; free PDF. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109840
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Gokhan Karabulut, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin and Asli Cansin Doker (2020), “Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic“, The World Economy, Vol. 43, pp. 1484-1498. OPEN ACCESS, doi:10.1111/twec.12969. PDF.
The Journal of Population Economics awards annually the Kuznets Prize for the best paper published in the Journal in a particular year. The 2022 Prize based on the articles in 2021 goes to:
The award ceremony is part of a journal workshop on December 6, 2021. 4-6 pm CEST: Presentation of Kuznets Prize 2022 & Highlights of JOPE Issue 4/2021 on Covid-19 economics. MORE information and info to participate: LINK
Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy
Giovanni Gallo, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; National Institute for Public Policies Analysis (INAPP), Rome, Italy
Sergio Scicchitano, National Institute for Public Policies Analysis (INAPP), Rome, Italy
***
Paper abstract: In the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home (WFH) became of great importance for a large share of employees since it represents the only option to both continue working and minimize the risk of virus exposure. Uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and future contagion waves even led companies to view WFH as a ‘new normal’ way of working. Based on influence function regression methods, this paper explores the potential consequences in the labor income distribution related to a long-lasting increase in WFH feasibility among Italian employees. Results show that a positive shift in WFH feasibility would be associated with an increase in average labor income, but this potential benefit would not be equally distributed among employees. Specifically, an increase in the opportunity to WFH would favor male, older, high-educated, and high-paid employees. However, this ‘forced innovation’ would benefit more employees living in provinces have been more affected by the novel coronavirus. WFH thus risks exacerbating pre-existing inequalities in the labor market, especially if it will not be adequately regulated. As a consequence, this study suggests that policies aimed at alleviating inequality, like income support measures (in the short run) and human capital interventions (in the long run), should play a more important compensating role in the future.
Posted inEvents, News, Science|Comments Off on Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19: Paper by Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano receives the Kuznets Prize 2022 of the Journal of Population Economics
Author Abstract: This paper represents one of the first attempts at building a direct measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and LS robotic patents retrieved by Montobbio et al. (2022), the underlying 4-digit CPC definitions are employed in order to detect functions and operations performed by technological artefacts which are more directed to substitute the labour input. This measure allows to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The Journal of Population Economics(JOPE) announces an event for December 6, 16:00-18:00 CET (Maastricht/Dutch time) to present the Kuznets Prize 2022 and a selection of the articles fromissue 34(4)/2021. The event is supported by GLO and hosted by UNU-MERIT via Zoom. Editor-in-Chief Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Netherlands, and GLO) will welcome the participants and present the prize. Managing Editor Michaella Vanore, (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, Netherlands, and GLO) will guide through the event. Editor Terra McKinnish (University of Colorado Boulder, USA, and GLO) and Associate Editor Kompal Sinha (Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, and GLO) will also attend to chair sessions. This is a unique opportunity to keep contact with fresh research and to meet the researchers behind.
The event will highlight a selection of the 10 articles published in issue 34(4)/2021 entirely on Covid-19 issues. All articles are published freely accessible and possible to download.
Since the first days of the pandemic, the journal has become a leading outlet for research on the disease by publishing influential articles. JOPE will continue to strengthen this reputation.
Open to the public. Mark your calendars. Detailed program below. The event will be recorded. Please click the link to join the webinar on December 6, 2021; 16:00-18:00 CEST: LINK https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83267591773?pwd=ZkpuSExTTnQ4emZMTC9QTXl3TzQ1dz09
16:00-16:30 Welcoming Remarks: Michaella Vanore (Managing Editor) Kuznets Prize 2022: Announcement and presentation: Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief)
TOP 5 of Covid-19 papers in the Journal of Population Economics (as of November 29, 2021):
1. Qiu, Y., Chen, X. & Shi, W.: Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. J Popul Econ33, 1127–1172 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00778-2 Springer measures: 59k accesses, 146 citations; Google citations: 364
2. Bonacini, L., Gallo, G. & Scicchitano, S.: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19.J Popul Econ34, 303–360 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00800-7 Springer measures: 42k accesses, 46 citations; Google citations: 146
3. Milani, F.: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. J Popul Econ34, 223–252 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4 Springer measures: 10k accesses, 33 citations; Google citations: 66
4. Papageorge, N.W., Zahn, M.V., Belot, M. et al.: Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic. J Popul Econ34, 691–738 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00818-x Springer measures: 13k accesses, 32 citations; Google citations: 128
5. Bonacini, L., Gallo, G. & Patriarca, F.: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. J Popul Econ34, 275–301 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x Springer measures: 4.8k accesses, 27 citations; Google citations: 46
Posted inEvents, News|Comments Off on Journal of Population Economics Online Event on December 6, 2021: Presentation of Kuznets Prize 2022 and Highlights of Issue 4/2021.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that initially authoritarian countries are slow in the vaccination process, while education is most relevant for scaling up the campaign and financial strength of the economies drive them to higher vaccination rates.
Author Abstract: Since vaccination is the decisive factor for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand the process to vaccination success. We identify a variety of factors playing a crucial role including the availability of vaccines, pandemic pressures, economic strength (GDP), educational development and political regimes. Examining the speed of vaccinations across countries, we find that initially authoritarian countries are slow in the vaccination process, while education is most relevant for scaling up the campaign and financial strength of the economies drive them to higher vaccination rates.
Further research on the pandemic:
Gokhan Karabulut, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin and Asli Cansin Doker (2021), “Democracy and COVID-19 Outcomes”, Economics Letters, Vol. 203, June 2021, 109840 Open Access; free PDF. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109840
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Gokhan Karabulut, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin and Asli Cansin Doker (2020), “Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic“, The World Economy, Vol. 43, pp. 1484-1498. OPEN ACCESS, doi:10.1111/twec.12969. PDF.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that a school reform in Hungary increasing the length of schooling did not decrease the probability of dropping out of secondary school at all levels.
Author Abstract: This paper examines the effects of increasing the compulsory school leaving age from 16 to 18 in Hungary using a difference-in-regression-discontinuities design identification strategy. While the reform increased the length of schooling, it did not decrease the probability of dropping out of secondary school, either on average or among the most at-risk group of Roma ethnic minority young people. Due to grade retentions, marginal students were older than their peers and couldn’t have made it to the final grade of secondary school by age 18. Neither did the reform increase the probability of employment at age 20 and 25. I show descriptive evidence that the share of disadvantaged students increased heavily in vocational training schools -that most marginal students attended- and potentially crowded out resources. This mechanism raises concerns about using school leaving age reforms as instrumental variables for education as it may violate its monotonicity assumption.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that restricting family allowance eligibility criteria decreases fertility and increases both male and female labor supply.
Author Abstract: This paper examines fertility and labor supply responses to a French policy reform that consisted in conditioning the amount of child allowances on household income. Relying on Regression Discontinuity Design and administrative income data, the paper finds that restricting family allowance eligibility criteria decreases fertility. The results also highlight that receiving half the amount of the allowances or not receiving any leads to an increase in both male and female labor supply. Auxiliary regressions show that at least part of the decline in fertility is due to timing effects, as the fertility impact declines as women’s age increases.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
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