Global Insights – eine Meinung: Kein Mißbrauch beim Kindergeld!

Aufregung erzeugt derzeit wieder einmal die Zahlung von deutschem Kindergeld ins Ausland. 343 Millionen Euro sind 2017 für im Ausland lebende ausländische Kinder geflossen, deutlich weniger als im Vorjahr (414 Millionen Euro). Richtig ist, daß sich dabei die Zahlungen im Vergleich zu 2010 fast verzehnfacht haben. Während es 2010 noch knapp 62 Tausend Kinder waren, sind es Ende 2017 knapp 216 Tausend, darunter 103 Tausend die in Polen und je 17 Tausend, die in Kroatien und Rumänien leben. Niveau und Anstieg dieser Zahlen sind eng mit der in dieser Periode starken Ausweitung der Beschäftigung in Deutschland verbunden: Europäische Arbeitnehmer erfahren Freizügigkeit, zahlen Steuern und haben nach europäischem Recht Anspruch an Kindergeld auch für im Heimatland lebende Kinder. Das ist nicht nur rechtens, sondern sichert den deutschen Wohlstand und ist politisch gewollt und wirtschaftlich zweckmäßig. Die Integration der Arbeitsmärkte ist erklärtes Ziel der europäischen Politik, da sie die Wirtschaftsbedingungen verbessert und auch Arbeitsplätze für deutsche Arbeitnehmer sichert. Kindergeldzahlungen tragen zur Sicherung der nötigen Arbeitsmobilität in Europa bei. Wenn ausländische Arbeitnehmer nur temporär nach Deutschland kommen, bleiben ihre Kinder oft im Heimatland zurück, da sie so besser in Gesellschaft, Kindergarten und Schule integriert werden können. Kämen sie nach Deutschland, müßten sie nicht nur hier integriert werden, sondern aus einer temporären Zuwanderung würde auch schnell eine dauerhafte.  (KFZ)

 

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Wirtschaftsprofessor und Präsident der Global Labor Organization (GLO), äußert hier seine Meinung. Er äußerte sich zu dieser Frage im “RTL Nachtmagazin” am 21./22. 3. 18 (Null Uhr).

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Understanding “Fading Hope” in the United States: Ritzen & Zimmermann suggest a new understanding of major changes of our world today

A large literature has discussed whether the increase in inequality over the last decade in Western industrial countries such as the United States (US) would lead to increasing tensions between socio-economic groups, social uprising and political change which might in turn hamper economic growth. The French economist Thomas Piketty had popularized the inequality issue. Now we know that inequality perceptions of population groups are behind major changes in the world, e.g. Brexit, Trump, the rise of popular movements in Europe and else.

A newly published paper by GLO Fellow Jo Ritzen and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann studies this issue with long-term data for the United States. They document fading hopes of the wider population about the long-term future as a decisive indicator of change:

Ritzen, Jo & Klaus F. Zimmermann: Fading Hope and the Rise in Inequality in the United StatesEurasian Business Review, (2018) 8:1–12. LEAD ARTICLE. DOI: 10.1007/s40821-016-0071-3. UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2016-025  Prepublication. A very preliminary version of the paper was a DP already in 2012.

Both authors are Professors of Economics and are affiliated with UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University. Jo Ritzen was previously Dutch Minister for Education and Science and President of Maastricht University. Klaus F. Zimmermann was President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Founding Director of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) and was affiliated with Harvard University and Princeton University.

The paper uses survey data for the US collected by the Pew Research Center for the People covering 1999–2014 documenting a long-run decline in hope. Over the first decade, the decline in hope cannot be traced back to the rising inequality. However, recent data from 2014 suggest that inequality is now a major driver of a lower than ever level of hope. Therefore, inequality is a recent factor, but was not the long-run driver of the decline in hope.

Jo Ritzen

Klaus F. Zimmermann

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GLO President Zimmermann visits Jinan University in Guangzhou China

On the invitation of Professor and Dean Shuaizhang Feng, Head of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht), visits Jinan University in Guangzhou China from March 11 to March 20.

Together with GLO Fellow Feng, he has organized a joint IESR – GLO Labor Workshop that takes place at Jinan University on March 13, 2018.  Several other GLO Fellows are present at the event, including M Niaz Asadullah (University of Malaysia), who is also the Southeast Asia Lead of the GLO research program.

Zimmermann will provide the opening paper presentation on Tuesday, a public lecture on European Migration Challenges on Thursday, a “career talk” for young scholars on Monday and various individuals talks with GLO Fellows and faculty throughout the whole visit.

 

 

 

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“Big Data and Unemployment Analysis” published in the Journal of Renmin University of China

Internet or “big” data are increasingly measuring the relevant activities of individuals, households, firms and public agents in a timely way. The information set involves large numbers of observations and embraces flexible conceptual forms and experimental settings. Therefore, internet data are extremely useful to study a wide variety of human resource issues including forecasting, nowcasting, detecting health issues and well-being, capturing the matching process in various parts of individual life, and measuring complex processes where traditional data have known deficits.

A seminal article by Nikos Askitas and Klaus F. Zimmermann (2009) had demonstrated for the first time, how Google activity data measuring activity on the labor market can inform about official unemployment. This has opened the perspective to analyze real world phenomenon using internet data. This article has generated a strong and rising literature and caused a large number of cites in particular with reference to the unemployment issue (Google cites: March 9, 2018: 457).

Askitas, N., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2009). Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting. Applied Economics Quarterly, 55(2), 107-120.

In a recent article on “Big Data and Unemployment Analysis” GLO Fellows Mihaela Simionescu (Romanian Academy, Bucharest) and Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT)  have revisited his topic and research strategy and surveyed the relevant literature so far. A pre-publication version of the paper is available as

Simionescu, Mihaela; Zimmermann, Klaus F. (2017) : Big Data and Unemployment Analysis, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 81

Free download in English

The GLO paper has been published in Chinese as the lead article in the Journal of Renmin University of China, 2017, Volume 31, No.6, 2 – 11.

 Simionescu (Bratu) Mihaela at Romanian Academy
 Mihaela Simionescu
 
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Global Insights – MyView: The double SDP in decline?

As announced this morning, the members of the German Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), the SDP, are supporting a new Grand Coalition with Angela Merkel and her conservatives with a strong vote of two thirds. It is a self-rescue in the last moment. This way and for the time being, the party escapes an almost certain further decline in otherwise unavoidable new elections. But the old problems remain. In four of the five past governmental periods the SDP has shaped German politics, but never wanted as a whole to commit to and identify with the great achievements. In this respect, the SDP was always two parties, a reform government party and a left-wing opposition party. Scholz and Nahles were in the past leading exponents for these directions: Scholz as an important player during Schröder’s labor market policy, Nahles as an effective terminator of social-democratic key concerns in particular as a successful minister of employment of the last Merkel government. Neither the great successes of Schröder’s policy for the economic recovery of Germany nor the consistent policy of equality pursued by Nahles have brought the party to a clear position with itself. The fact that the two exponents Nahles and Scholz now jointly want to lead the SDP into the government and reform the party from the outside is at first just a replication of previous  constellations. Only if the new axis manages to not only allow successful governmental work, but also commit the party to support it, and not let the SDP to slip into the sole role of another opposition party, it has a chance of recovery. That would be the indispensable prerequisite for regaining the support of the electorate. (KFZ)

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Professor of Economics and President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), expresses his own opinion here.

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Global Insights – eine Meinung: Die doppelte SPD im Niedergang?

Die SPD rettet sich mit ihrem Mitgliederentscheid mit klarem Votum in die Große Koalition. Damit ist sie einem fast sicheren, weiteren Niedergang vorerst entkommen. Aber die alten Probleme bleiben. In vier der fünf vergangenen Regierungsperioden hat sie die Politik Deutschlands geprägt, wollte sich aber nie als Ganzes zu ihren großen Erfolgen bekennen. Insofern war die SPD immer zwei Parteien, eine Reformpartei und eine linke Oppositionspartei. Scholz wie Nahles standen in der Vergangenheit für diese Richtungen. Scholz als wichtiger Akteur der Schröder’schen Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Nahles als effektiver Terminator sozialdemokratischer Schlüsselanliegen und erfolgreiche Arbeitsministerin der letzten Regierung Merkel. Weder die großen Erfolge der Schröder’schen Politik für die wirtschaftliche Genesung Deutschlands noch die von Nahles betriebene konsequente Gleichheitspolitik haben die Partei mit sich selbst ins Reine gebracht. Daß die beiden Exponenten Nahles und Scholz jetzt gemeinsam die SPD in die Regierung führen und von außen reformieren wollen, ist zunächst nur eine Neuauflage alter Konstellationen. Nur wenn es der neuen Achse gelingt, erfolgreiche Regierungstätigkeit nicht nur zuzulassen, sondern auch in die Partei zu vermitteln, und die SPD nicht zu einer Ersatz-Opposition entgleiten zu lassen, hat sie eine Chance auf Regeneration. Das wäre die unverzichtbare Voraussetzung, auch beim Wähler wieder anzukommen. (KFZ)

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Wirtschaftsprofessor und Präsident der Global Labor Organization (GLO), äußert hier seine Meinung.

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St. Petersburg: “Second International Labour Forum” Debates the Future of Labor and How to Learn From other Countries

March 1 -2, 2018: St Petersburg/Russia presented  the Second International Labour Forum of the Government of St Petersburg. The forum was organized by the Government of St Petersburg, St Petersburg State University and the ExpoForum-International company and supported by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation. The Forum aims to become the largest platform in Russia to discuss issues related to the development of human capital based on advanced research and global best practices.

March 1, 2018, Moscow: Russia President Vladimir Putin gave his annual state of the nation address, where he revealed that the country had developed nuclear weapons capable of overcoming traditional defenses. This reacts to Western plans to increase military budgets substantially. On the same day, US President Donald Trump had indicated that the US would begin imposing heavy tariffs on imports. Retaliation from the EU and China is expected. Facing the potential of a new arms race and a trade war, the exchange of people and arguments are even more important than before.

March 1, 2018, St Petersburg: The organizers of the Forum had invited Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University) to represent the Global Labor Organization (GLO) at this important event. He spoke on “The design of effective labor market policies“. The conference gave an excellent platform for many speakers to discuss the lessons from other countries for efficient policymaking.

From the successful German labor market policies, Zimmermann suggested the following relevant elements:

►Economic difficulties are the friend of effective labor market reforms.

►Economic incentives to take up work matter.

►Program evaluation with counterfactual analysis is key.

►The successful reforms in Germany are a prime example for the power of evidence-based policy making.

References:

  • Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann (2012): Another Economic Miracle? The German Labor Market and the Great Recession
    IZA Journal of Labor Policy 1, Article 3. (available at www.izajolp.com/content/1/1/3)
  • Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann (2012): Another Economic Miracle? The German Labor Market and the Great Recession
    IZA Journal of Labor Policy 1, Article 3.
    (available at www.izajolp.com/content/1/1/3)
  • Ulf Rinne & Klaus F. Zimmermann (2012):
    Another Economic Miracle? The German Labor Market and the Great Recession, IZA Journal of Labor Policy 1, Article 3.
    (available at www.izajolp.com/content/1/1/3)

Below: Klaus F. Zimmermann spoke on the Second International Labour Forum of the Government of St. Petersburg

 

BELOW: OPENING PANEL OF THE INTERNATIONAL LABOUR FORUM. Left: Dmitry Cherneyko, Chairman of Saint-Petersburg Labour and Employment Committee; Right: Andrew Spence, Strategic  Workforce Advisor, “Glass Bead Consulting”.

 

Below: Zimmermann in St Petersburg. He had many interactions with participants, among others with Dmitry Cherneyko, Chairman of Saint-Petersburg Labour and Employment Committee, Andrew Spence, Strategic  Workforce Advisor, “Glass Bead Consulting”, and Nikolay Rogachev, Deputy Chairman of Saint-Petersburg Labour and Employment Committee.

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GLO President Zimmermann spoke in Policy Panel of DIE WEIS[S]E WIRTSCHAFT in Vienna evaluating the migration and integration policy objectives of the new Austrian government

In a series of evaluation events, the Vienna-based DIE WEIS[S]E WIRTSCHAFT, an independent group of policy analysts supporting evidence-based policymaking, has brought together experts to discuss and evaluate the new Austrian government coalition contract. A last round of experts met on February 27, 2018 in a public Policy Panel in Vienna in the Press Center Concordia on:

Migration and Integration Policies in the New Austrian Government Contract

The expert panel consisted of Robert Holzmann, Ursula Struppe, Franz Wolf and Klaus F. Zimmermann. The moderator was Andreas Kresbach, and the organizer (and well-known head of DIE WEIS[S]E WIRTSCHAFT), Peter Brandner.

Klaus F. Zimmermann is a Professor of Economics, the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), a Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT and affiliated with Maastricht University and Bonn University. He has been a frequent advisor of various governments around the globe, the EU Commission, the World Bank and the OECD, and the Inter-American Development Bank.  He also had served as President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and the Founding Director of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn.

The Policy Panel with the moderator (from the left: Robert Holzmann, Ursula Struppe, Andreas Kresbach, Klaus F. Zimmermann and Franz Wolf)

Video documentation of the event (in German).

Examining the plans in the Austrian government contract and comparing it with the plans for the German government, Zimmermann had based his various comments on the Vienna Panel on:

  • Austria and Germany face similar challenges and it is not surprising that the issues covered in both government contracts are pretty similar. In fact, already the number of pages of both documents are about the same (about 180 pages). The Austrian government is based on a collaboration between the (Christian Democratic) center-right People’s Party with the far-right Freedom Party affiliated with the recent European populist movements. In Germany, the newly planned government contract has been negotiated between the (Christian Democratic) Conservatives, the CDU, and the Social Democratic Party, SPD. While the CDU has become closer to the SPD on various themes, the Bavarian conservatives, the CSU, are challenged stronger by the attempt to deal with these recent populist movements.
  • Both government contracts seem to assume that the refugee and the labor migration issues can be separated. It cannot. By re-establishing a fortress policy towards refugees, it seems difficult to signal openness for labor migrants at the same time. A false dream is that one could copy the rough refugee and the successful labor immigration policies of Australia. While neither Austria nor Germany are islands and face (like Australia) a strong excess – supply of economic migrants and a long -established image as a promising immigration country. Also “flooded” by Asian immigrants, in particular Chinese, most of them currently come as students where they are the input into the generation of the second largest export good of Australia, university education.
  •  The new Austrian government believes much stronger that in can protect its borders against refugees. At least, it promises its voters a larger number of concrete measures in Austria, in Europe and in the sending regions, even to engage on the migration routes in Africa. The German contract is much less concrete, although it wants to limit the refugee inflow to not repeat the 2015 experience. Whether it makes sense to promise the impossible as in the Austrian approach, reality will have to show. At least one should not expect that economic development measures would stop the migration pressure, development only makes illegal migration pressures stronger. Stricter border controls only lead to more permanent illegal immigrants, because people do not only come by boat but also as tourists, the overstay, and the borders in the South and the East of Europe cannot be fully closed. The German approach is more cautious, announcing to create two expert commissions to study “integration potentials” and “flight causes”.
  • While the Austrian government plans refuse to show European solidarity with respect to the refugee issue, it is the German government contract that insists on a central role of Europe and a quota system for asylum seekers. The understanding of the role of Europe marks the strongest differences between Austria and Germany in the near future. Whether it makes sense to let Greece, Italy and potentially Spain, Bulgaria and Romania alone with future illegal migration pressures, will have to be seen. As in the past, they will allow migrants to move on, if necessary.
  • Both contracts accept economic migration for work, but Austria seems to think that it can get its needed laborer further mainly from the European partners. In the past, Austria was able to attract needed workers from the European Union member countries, in particular from the new member states in the East. However, the labor markets of Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic are empty and can hardly fulfill such needs in the future. (See also a related website report.)
  • While the Austria government still wants to develop a concept to organize and attract economic immigration more effectively, the German contract indicates a few channels and instruments by providing a number of keywords and is listing a number of categories which could be part of a potential point system in a new immigration law. The labor market, the universities and the apprenticeship system of Germany could operate as filters for such a policy; the Austrian government seems to be also sufficiently open for it.
  • While Germany wants to strengthen integration and foster integration research, Austria is much more determined to monitor and supervise integration on all societal levels. The Austrian government plan also offers a transparent pathway to citizenship. Both governments intend to integrate refugees early in the labor market, but Germany is already ahead with already existing practical measures. The German contract has a more balanced view on the Islam, while the Austrian government wants to strictly oppose radical Islamism.

Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University), who is also the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), used the visit to discuss various issues of joint interest with Bernhard Felderer (the former Director of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna), and GLO Fellows Peter Brandner, Manfred Deistler and Robert Holzmann.

Klaus F. Zimmermann contributing to a well-attended public Policy Panel in Vienna in the Press Center Concordia.

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Comparative Economics meets new global policy challenges and research questions

The world is at the beginning of a new phase of global challenges. Posting from St Petersburg in the morning after President Putin’s recent national speech, I would like to share with you an interview with GLO Fellow Nauro Campos on Comparative Economics published also on the GLO (Global Labor Organization) blog.

Nauro Campos, Professor of Economics at Brunel University London and Research Professor at ETH-Zürich, has recently been appointed Editor of the prominent research journal Comparative Economic Studies. Prof. Campos works with a new Editorial Board. I have asked him about his perspectives for this challenging new role.

KFZ: Soviet studies, transition economics, new global challenges: What is Comparative Economics today?

Nauro Campos: Comparative economics is today in the cusp of becoming, once again, a really vibrant and exciting research area. Think of institutions 20 years ago, or economic history 10 years ago, and that gives you an idea where comparative economics is today. The Comparative Economic Studies journal (CES) tries to reflect that. It welcomes both submissions that are obviously comparative and case studies of single countries or of regions. It is looking for papers that investigate how economic systems respond to economic structural changes and crises, whether these are brought about by globalization, demographics, institutions, technology, politics, and/or the environment. CES is an economics journal, but is one that openly welcomes contributions from political scientists, historians and sociologists, to name a few selected disciplines.  In order to accommodate these aspirations, the new Editorial team has broadened the journal’s regional focus and has changed its mission and objectives accordingly.

KFZ: Did you change the regional focus of Comparative Economic Studies?

Nauro Campos: Yes. CES is a journal of the Association of Comparative Economic Studies which when it started out, in the Cold War years of the 1960s to 1980s, was mostly concerned with what one may call “issues of the Soviet economy.” After the fall of the Berlin Wall, CES became a crucial outlet for work on the transition away from central planning. It focused on the Central European and the Former Soviet Union countries.  While working hard to maintain this prominent position, the regional focus and scope of CES has now been further enlarged to encompass other areas as well. There is a lot of interest in comparative economics today in European Union as a whole and the journal is very attentive to that. Moreover, the scope has been even further broadened to include studies about Asian, Latin American, and African experiences.

KFZ: How will you combine research articles with the mission to connect Comparative Economic Studies to important policy debates?

Nauro Campos: As I said, the new editorial team has made some substantial changes in the mission of the journal as well as on its more specific goals. The overall idea is to move the journal, slowly but surely, towards it becoming an outlet in the mould of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Think of it as a JEP-style comparative economics outlet; that is what the journal wants to be in the medium-term. We want to publish papers that offer original political economy analysis from a comparative perspective. Papers that are a truly accessible source for state-of-the-art comparative economics thinking. Articles that genuinely encourage cross-fertilization of ideas from various disciplines and that are the forefront of the debate of the directions for future research in comparative studies. But we also want papers that provide materials and insights that become useful and relevant for teaching, for the public policy debate and for the media. This change makes CES quite unique, so we will not be competing with other journals but mostly complementing their work, and the link to policy and to policy debates should become quite natural and hopefully quite strong.

KFZ: Thank you very much and good luck with your new venture!

Professor Nauro Campos

Bio note:  Nauro Campos is Professor of Economics at Brunel University London and Research Professor at ETH-Zürich. Previously he taught at the Universities Paris 1 Sorbonne, Newcastle, CERGE-EI and Warwick. He was a Fulbright Fellow at Johns Hopkins and Robert McNamara Fellow. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Southern California (Los Angeles) in 1997, where he was lucky enough to learn about institutions from Jeff Nugent and Jim Robinson and (more than) happy to be Dick Easterlin’s RA for three years.

Note: KFZ is Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and President of the Global Labor Organization.

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Vienna: Meeting with Austrian Business about the need of a flexible and free European labor market

Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University) is the President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). On February 26, 2018, he participated in a conference of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, in Vienna/Austria on the “The European Labor Market – between Unemployment and Shortages of Skilled Labor”. Zimmermann gave a speech on “Challenges and Chances of the free European Mobility of Workers” and participated on a Plenary Panel about the labor markets of Austria, Poland and Romania. He had many interactions with participants, among others with Christoph Leidl, the President of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, and GLO Fellow Rainer Münz (European Political Strategy Centre, European Commission, Brussels).

Key messages of the speech of Zimmermann (Challenges and Chances of the free European Mobility of Workers):

► In the past, Austria was able to attract needed workers from the European Union member countries, in particular from the new member states in the East. However, the labor markets of Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic are empty and can hardly fulfill such needs in the future.

► EU – internal labor mobility is crucial for the welfare of Europe and Austria. Labor market flexibility is an important factor for economic prosperity. It helps to adjust to long term-demands and absorbs asymmetric economic shocks.

► EU labor market flexibility has recently increased in comparison with the US. This has been driven by migrants from the recent EU enlargement new member states, but also from third country nationals.

► Labor mobility demonstrates the advantages of migration for the receiving economies. It hence helps to reduce potential tensions against migrants in the native population.

Literature:

►Jauer, Julia & Liebig, Thomas & Martin, John P. & Puhani, Patrick A., Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006-2016,  GLO Discussion Paper 178, February 2018. Free download.

Abstract: We estimate whether migration can be an equilibrating force in the labour market by comparing pre-and post-crisis migration movements at the regional level in both Europe and the United States, and their association with symmetric labour market shocks. Based on fixed-effects regressions using regional panel data, we find that Europe’s migratory response to unemployment shocks was almost identical to that recorded in the United States after the crisis. Our estimates suggest that, if all measured population changes in Europe were due to migration for employment purposes – i.e. an upper-bound estimate – up to about a quarter of the asymmetric labour market shock would be absorbed by migration within a year. However, in Europe and especially in the Eurozone, the reaction to a very large extent stems from migration of recent EU accession country citizens as well as of third – country nationals.

►Zimmermann, Klaus F., Migrationspolitik im Mediensturm (Migration Policy in the Media Storm), Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 63 (2016), 497-508. Pre-publication draft.

►Zimmermann, Klaus F., Migration, jobs and integration in Europe, in: Migration Policy Practice, 2014, 6(4), 4-16. Publication, free access.

►Bauer, Thomas K. & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zimmermann, Klaus F., Immigration policy, assimilation of immigrants, and natives’ sentiments towards immigrants: Evidence from 12 OECD countries, Swedish Economic Policy Review (2000) 7, 11-53. (497 Google Scholar Cites.)

GLO President Zimmermann in front of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, Vienna, on February 26, 2018.

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