Klaus F. Zimmermann

A new GLO Discussion Paper contains robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 536, 2020

Does retirement lead to life satisfaction? Causal evidence from fixed effect instrumental variable models – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R.

GLO Fellow Ha Trong Nguyen

Author Abstract: This paper presents robust evidence that retirement causally improves overall life satisfaction which is subsequently explained by improvements in satisfaction with one’s financial situation, free time, health, and participation in local community activities. Furthermore, while the positive wellbeing impact of retirement is sizable initially, it fades after the first 3 years. We find that the improvements in financial satisfaction upon retirement are only observed for low-income individuals. However, the wellbeing impact of retirement does not differ by gender, educational, occupational, economic or marital backgrounds. We also explore several potential explanations for our findings. This paper employs a fixed effect instrumental variable model, which exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension to construct an instrument for retirement, and 18 waves of high-quality Australian panel data. The results also suggest that failing to adequately account for the endogeneity of retirement would result in a downward-biased estimate of a positive wellbeing impact of retirement.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that information and communications technology (ICT) significantly increases students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and higher wages. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search.

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The effect of educational technology on college students’ labor market performance

Yi Lu, Hong Song

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1101-1126
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on college students’ labor market performance. Using a large, representative survey of college students in China, we examine outcomes before and after students were exposed to technology-aided instruction, compared with students who were not exposed to such instruction. The results indicate that the ICT program significantly increased students’ likelihood of obtaining a job offer in the labor market and the wage they were offered. The positive effect comes from students’ increased use of computers and the internet for job search. While most previous studies of the use of technology in education focus only on students’ academic achievement and find zero or negative effects, our study demonstrates that technology may be an effective tool for improving college students’ labor market performance, and that the potential benefits of technology might be underestimated if we focus only on test scores and ignore students’ career development.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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A new GLO Discussion Paper uncovers patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution in India over a quarter century.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 535, 2020

Welfare Dynamics in India over a Quarter Century: Poverty, Vulnerability, and Mobility during 1987-2012 – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw, Peter F.

GLO Fellow Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: We analyze the Indian National Sample Survey data spanning 1987/88–2011/12 to uncover patterns of transition into and out of different classes of the consumption distribution. At the aggregate level, income growth has accelerated, accompanied by accelerating poverty decline. Underlying these trends is a process of mobility, with 40–60 percent of the population transitioning between consumption classes and increasing mobility over time. Yet, the majority of those who escape poverty remain vulnerable. Most of those who are poor were also poor in the preceding period and, thus, are likely to be chronically poor. The characteristics of upwardly mobile households contrast with those of the poor; these households are also far less likely to experience downward mobility. We also find that states exhibit heterogenous mobility patterns.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics provides a model that can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth.

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Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth

Alberto Bucci, Klaus Prettner

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1025-1068
FREE READ LINK

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates Covid-19 infection detection by using a machine learning procedure for hardly reliable data to identify structural breaks. It finds successfully for Italy three structural breaks that can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 534, 2020

Drawing policy suggestions to fight Covid-19 from hardly reliable data. A machine-learning contribution on lockdowns analysis – Download PDF
by Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Patriarca, Fabrizio

GLO Fellow Fabrizio Patriarca

Author Abstract: Feedback control-based mitigation strategies for COVID-19 are threatened by the time span occurring before an infection is detected in official data. Such a delay also depends on behavioral, technological and procedural issues other than the incubation period. We provide a machine learning procedure to identify structural breaks in detected positive cases dynamics using territorial level panel data. In our case study, Italy, three structural breaks are found and they can be related to the three different national level restrictive measures: the school closure, the main lockdown and the shutdown of non-essential economic activities. This allows assessing the detection delays and their relevant variability among the different measures adopted and the relative effectiveness of each of them. Accordingly we draw some policy suggestions to support feedback control based mitigation policies as to decrease their risk of failure, including the further role that wide swap campaigns may play in reducing the detection delay. Finally, by exploiting the huge heterogeneity among Italian provinces features, we stress some drawbacks of the restrictive measures specific features and of their sequence of adoption, among which, the side effects of the main lockdown on social and economic inequalities.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming OPEN ACCESS in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that housing or real estate improves the man’s status in the marriage market of Taiwan.

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Males’ housing wealth and their marriage market advantage

C. Y. Cyrus Chu, Jou-Chun Lin, Wen-Jen Tsay

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 1005-1023
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: In theory, people who own real estate should have advantage finding a partner in the marriage market. Empirical analyses along this line, however, face three issues. First, it is difficult to identify any causality for whether housing facilitates marriage or expected marriage facilitates a housing purchase. Second, survey samples usually do not cover very wealthy people, and so the observations are top coding in the wealth dimension. Third, getting married is a dynamic life cycle decision, and rich life-history data are rarely available. This paper uses registry data from Taiwan to estimate the impact of males’ housing wealth on their first-marriage duration, taking into account all three issues mentioned above. We find that a 10% increase in real estate wealth increases probability of a man getting married in any particular year by 3.92%. Our finding suggests that housing or real estate is a status good in the marriage market.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the total productivity of their respective networks among all nobel prize winners identifies Deaton, Tirole, Arrow and Stiglitz as global leaders in economics.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 533, 2020

Leaders among the leaders in Economics: A network analysis of the Nobel Prize laureates – Download PDF
by Molina, José Alberto & Iñiguez, David & Ruiz, Gonzalo & Tarancón, Alfonso

GLO Fellow José Alberto Molina

Author Abstract: We analyse the production and networks of Nobel laureates in Economics, employing the Normalized Impact Factor (NIF) of their publications in the Journal of Citation Report (Economics), to identify the academic leaders among those laureates awarded between 1969 and 2016. Our results indicate that direct collaborations among laureates are, in general, rare, but when we add all the co-authors of the laureates, there appears a very large component containing 70% of the nodes, so that more than two thirds of the laureates can be connected through only two steps. Deaton, Tirole, Arrow, and Stiglitz are identified as leaders according to the total production of their respective networks.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics highlights that fathers in Australia play a pivotal role in the skill production process of their kids over the lifecourse.

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Exploring the role of parental engagement in non-cognitive skill development over the lifecourse

Rosemary Elkins & Stefanie Schurer

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 957-1004
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We examine the role that parental engagement with child’s education plays in the lifecourse dynamics of locus of control (LOC), one of the most widely studied non-cognitive skills related to economic decision-making. We focus on parental engagement as previous studies have shown that it is malleable, easy to measure, and often available for fathers, whose inputs are notably understudied in the received literature. We estimate a standard skill production function using rich British cohort data. Parental engagement is measured with information provided at age 10 by the teacher on whether the father or the mother is very interested in the child’s education. We deal with the potential endogeneity in parental engagement by employing an added-value model, using lagged measures of LOC as a proxy for innate endowments and unmeasured inputs. We find that fathers’, but not mothers’, engagement leads to internality, a belief associated with positive lifetime outcomes, in both young adulthood and middle age for female and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort members. Fathers’ engagement also increases the probability of lifelong internality and fully protects against lifelong externality. Our findings highlight that fathers play a pivotal role in the skill production process over the lifecourse.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking and digital conferencing will continue after the coronacrisis.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 532, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis and telework: A research survey on experiences, expectations and hopes – Download PDF
by Baert, Stijn & Lippens, Louis & Moens, Eline & Sterkens, Philippe & Weytjens, Johannes

GLO Fellow Stijn Baert

Author Abstract: While a considerable number of employees across the globe are being forced to work from home due to the COVID-19 crisis, it is a guessing game as to how they are experiencing this current surge in telework. Therefore, we examined employee perceptions of telework on various life and career aspects, distinguishing between typical and extended telework during the COVID-19 crisis. To this end, we conducted a state-of-the-art web survey among Flemish employees. Notwithstanding this exceptional time of sudden, obligatory and high-intensity telework, our respondents mainly attribute positive characteristics to teleworking, such as increased efficiency and a lower risk of burnout. The results also suggest that the overwhelming majority of the surveyed employees believe that teleworking (85%) and digital conferencing (81%) are here to stay. In contrast, some fear that telework diminishes their promotion opportunities and weakens ties with their colleagues and employer.

The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis. After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.
REVISED DRAFT NOW PUBLISHED OPEN ACCESS ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, Issue 4, 2020.

Further publication on COVID-19 of a GLO DP:
GLO Discussion Paper No. 508, 2020
Inter-country Distancing, Globalization and the Coronavirus Pandemic – Download PDF
by Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin is now forthcoming in The World Economy doi:10.1111/twec.12969 PREPUBLICATION VERSION

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that an early-life social safety net program has a sizeable impact on child health outcomes at birth.

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Growing together: assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program

Damian Clarke, Gustavo Cortés Méndez

Journal of Population Economics (2020) 33, Issue 3: 883-956
FREE READ LINK

Author Abstract: We study the acting mechanism of an early-life social safety net program and quantify its impact on child health outcomes at birth. We consider both the equity and efficiency implications of program impacts and provide a metric to compare such programs around the world. In particular, we estimate the impact of participation in Chile Crece Contigo (ChCC), Chile’s flagship early-life health and social welfare program, using a difference-in-differences style model based on variation in program intensity and administrative birth data matched to social benefits usage. We find that this targeted social program had significant effects on birth weight (approximately 10 grams) and other early-life human capital measures. These benefits are largest among the most socially vulnerable groups but shift outcomes toward the middle of the distribution of health at birth. We show that the program is efficient when compared to other successful neonatal health programs around the world and find some evidence to suggest that maternal nutrition components and increased links to the social safety net are important action mechanisms.

Access to the newly published complete Volume 33, Issue 3, July 2020.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 3:
Blau, F.D., Kahn, L.M., Brummund, P. et al., Is there still son preference in the United States?.
Journal of Population Economics 33, 709–750 (2020). READ LINK FREE.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00760-7

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