“Intergenerational effects of the pension reform in China” and other fresh research in Population Economics! Access to the table of content of issue 3, 2018, of the Journal of Population Economics.

The intergenerational education spillovers of pension reform in China

“Economic theory establishes that pension privatization weakens the link between old and young and so reduces the incentive to invest in public education in an economy with lower return rate of capital than growth rate of wage. However, empirical studies of the link change are few. In this paper, we investigate the effects of pension privatization and the central government’s subsidy to individual accounts on public education spending in a three-period overlapping generation model. And then, we take contemporary pension reforms in a number of Chinese provinces as offering natural experiment conditions. Using a difference-in-difference framework and 282 municipal districts panel data over years 1998–2009, we test the pension-education theoretical link change. Both our theoretical and empirical results confirm that pension privatization is adversely associated with local public spending on education in China. Private pension subsidies, moreover, magnify this effect. Our study supports the theoretical assertion and selective empirical findings of a negative intergenerational effect of pension privatization.”

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I am pleased to distribute the new table of contents alert for Journal of Population Economics, Volume 31 Number 3 in 2018, which is now available online.

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Editor-in-Chief

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Original Paper

The intergenerational education spillovers of pension reform in China

Cheng Yuan, Chengjian Li & Lauren A. Johnston

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Original Paper

Private versus public old-age security

Richard C. Barnett, Joydeep Bhattacharya & Mikko Puhakka

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Parental retirement timing: the role of unanticipated events in the lives of adult children

Marina Miller, Christopher R. Tamborini & Gayle L. Reznik

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Why are fewer married women joining the work force in rural India? A decomposition analysis over two decades

Farzana Afridi, Taryn Dinkelman & Kanika Mahajan

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Does it pay to care? Volunteering and employment opportunities

Stijn Baert & Sunčica Vujić

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Original Paper

Informal search, bad search?: the effects of job search method on wages among rural migrants in urban China

Yuanyuan Chen, Le Wang & Min Zhang

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Original Paper

Social networks and the labour market mismatch

Eleni Kalfa & Matloob Piracha

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Original Paper

The effect of female education on marital matches and child health in Bangladesh

Youjin Hahn, Kanti Nuzhat & Hee-Seung Yang

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Original Paper

The long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on children’s education and employment

Cuong Viet Nguyen

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Original Paper

The long-term effect of childhood poverty

Rune V. Lesner

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Journal of Population Economics

Klaus F. Zimmermann

Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Population Economics

President, GLO

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) supports the Journal of Population Economics.

 

 

 

 

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Small & Young Companies are Driving Job Creation

Due to its huge relevance, the relationship between firm size, firm growth and firm job creation is heavily debated in the industrial organization literature. A core theorem in this context has been Gibrat’s law suggesting that the proportional rate of growth of a firm is independent of its absolute size (Gibrat, 1931). However,  the existing studies (mostly for developed countries) are rejecting Gibrat’s law by finding that smaller and younger firms grow more than larger and older ones.

In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Hassan Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef, Francesco Quatraro and Marco Vivarelli show that this result is also found in the development context using data for Tunisia. The implication again is that small and young companies drive job creation, suggesting priority for those firms for receiving  public  support.

Hassan Arouri is associated  with the National Institute of Statistics, Tunisia.
Adel Ben Youssef is associated  with the University of Nice Sophia, Antipolis and GREDEG-CNRS, France.
Francesco Quatraro is associated  with the University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Torino, Italy.
GLO Fellow Marco Vivarelli is associated  with the Universita’ Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy.

Hassan Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef, Francesco Quatraro & Marco Vivarelli, Growth Dynamics of Young Small Firms: Evidence from Tunisia, GLO Discussion Paper No. 197.  FREE DOWNLOAD: Download PDF

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to investigate the growth dynamics of young small firms (in contrast with  larger  and  older  incumbents)  in  a  developing  country  context,  using  a  unique  and comprehensive  dataset  of  non-agricultural  Tunisian  companies.  Our  results  suggest  that significant differences between  young and mature firms can be found as far as the drivers of their growth  are  concerned.  The  key  finding  being  that -while  consistently  with  the  extant literature  Gibrat’s  law  is  overall  rejected -the  negative  impact  of  the  initial  size  is significantly   larger   for   young   than   mature   firms.   This   result   has   interesting   policy implications: since smaller young firms are particularly conducive to employment generation, they  can  be  considered  good  candidate  for  targeted  accompanying  policies  addressed  to sustain their post-entry growth.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

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Free Access to Fresh & Original Research: Global Labor Organization – GLO Discussion Papers April 2018 & DP of the Month

Titles and free access/links to GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Discussion Paper of the Month: April

Djankov, Simeon & Nikolova, Elena, Communism as the Unhappy Coming, GLO Discussion Paper No. 192, April 2018. Free download.

Abstract:  We show that Eastern Orthodox believers are less happy compared to those of Catholic and Protestant faith using data covering more than 100 countries around the world. Consistent with the happiness results, we also find that relative to Catholics, Protestants and non-believers, those of Eastern Orthodox religion have less social capital and prefer old ideas and safe jobs. In addition, Orthodoxy is associated with left-leaning political preferences and stronger support for government involvement in the economy. Compared to non-believers and Orthodox adherents, Catholics and Protestants are less likely to agree that government ownership is a good thing, and Protestants are less likely to agree that getting rich can only happen at the expense of others. These differences in life satisfaction and other attitudes and values persisted despite the fact that communist elites sought to eradicate church-going in Eastern Europe, since communists maintained many aspects of Orthodox theology which were useful for the advancement of the communist doctrine. The findings are consistent with Berdyaev’s (1933, 1937) hypothesis of communism as a successor of Orthodoxy.

GLO Discussion Papers of April 2018

207 How valid are synthetic panel estimates of poverty dynamics? – Download PDF
by Hérault, Nicolas & Jenkins, Stephen P.

206 Selective immigration policies, occupational licensing, and the quality of migrants’ education-occupation match – Download PDF
by Tani, Massimiliano

205 Long-Term Relatedness between Countries and International Migrant Selection – Download PDF
by Krieger, Tim & Renner, Laura & Ruhose, Jens

204 The Power of the Government: China’s Family Planning Leading. Group and the Fertility Decline since 1970 – Download PDF
by Chen, Yi & Huang, Yingfei

203 Impact of delivering iron-fortified salt through a school feeding program on child health, education and cognition: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in rural India – Download PDF
by Krämer, Marion & Kumar, Santosh & Vollmer, Sebastian

202 And Thou Shalt Honor: children’s caregiving, work and religion – Download PDF
by Mazzotta, Fernanda & Bettio, Francesca & Zigante, Valentina

201 To Impute or Not to Impute? A Review of Alternative Poverty Estimation Methods in the Context of Unavailable Consumption Data – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H.

200 From Elitist to Sustainable Earnings: Is there a group legitimacy in financial flows? – Download PDF
by Charles, Aurelie & Vujić, Sunčica

199 Hours Worked of the Self-Employed and Agglomeration – Download PDF
by Cai, Zhengyu

198 A Tale of Two Tracks – Download PDF
by Asali, Muhammad

197 Growth Dynamics of Young Small Firms: Evidence from Tunisia – Download PDF
by Arouri, Hassan & Ben Youssef, Adel & Quatraro, Francesco & Vivarelli, Marco

196 Immigrant Category of Admission and the Earnings of Adults and Children: How far does the Apple Fall? – Download PDF
by Warman, Casey & Webb, Matthew D. & Worswick, Christopher

195 The Effects of Foreign Aid on Refugee Flows – Download PDF
by Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah

194 Will Urban Migrants Formally Insure their Rural Relatives? Family Networks and Rainfall Index Insurance in Burkina Faso – Download PDF
by Kazianga, Harounan & Wahhaj, Zaki

193 The Impact of Compulsory Education on Employment and Earnings in a Transition Economy – Download PDF
by Liwiński, Jacek

192 Communism as the Unhappy Coming – Download PDF
by Djankov, Simeon & Nikolova, Elena

191 Towards a European Full Employment Policy – Download PDF
by Ritzen, Jo & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

 

Successful GLO team:

GLO Managing Director Matloob Piracha (University of Kent, right) and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University, left).

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Contributions Invited: Book Series “Population Economics”

The Editors of the Journal of Population Economics are also editing the Springer book series in “Population Economics”. Researchers working on human resources issues are invited to send book proposals to the publisher at Springer, Martina Nolte-Bohres (Martina.Nolte-Bohres@springer.com). The Global Labor Organization (GLO) supports the Journal of Population Economics.

 

Population Economics

Editor-in-Chief: Klaus F. Zimmermann
Editors: Alessandro Cigno, Erdal Tekin, Junsen Zhang
Managing Editor: Michaella Vanore

 

 

 

 

  • Covers pressing topics of our time, such as migration, population aging, employment,health, and economic growth
  • The series is useful as handbooks for policymakers as weil as for students and teachers of graduate and postgraduate courses
  • Treats both theoretical and empirical aspects
  • Written by the leading scholars in the field, employing the latest research methodologies

Research on population economics deals with some of the most pertinent issues of our time and, as such, is of interest to academics and policymakers alike. Like the Journal of Population Economics, the book series “Population Economics” addresses a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics related to all areas of the economics of population, household, and human resources. Books in the series comprise work that closely examines special topics related to population economics, incorporating the most recent developments in the field and the latest research methodologies. Micro-level investigations include topics related to individual, household or family behavior, such as migration, aging, household formation, marriage, divorce, fertility choices, labor supply, health, and risky behavior. Macro-level inquiries examine topics such as economic growth with exogenous or endogenous population evolution, population policy, savings and pensions, social security, housing, and healthcare. These and other topics related to the relationship between population dynamics and public choice, economic approaches to human biology, and the impact of population on income and wealth distributions have important individual, social, and institutional consequences, and their scientific examination informs both economic theory and public policy.

Keywords:  >Population Economics > Household and Family Economics > Labour Economics >Human Resources >Migration Economics

Recently published books:

A. Yakita: Population Aging, Fertility and Social Security

C. Diebolt, F. Perrin: Understanding Demographie Transitions. An Overview of French Historical Statistics

A. Artal-Tur, G. Peri, F. Requena-Silvente (Eds.): The Socio-Economic Impact of Migration Flows Effects on Trade, Remittances, Output, and the Labour Market

 

 

 

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GLO Supported Events in May

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) supports events and international collaborations. In May a few interesting conferences will take place involving a larger number of GLO Fellows. Here are some links as a reminder:

  • Bucharest on May 10-11, 2018. 4th International Conference on “Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research organized by the Institute for Economic Forecasting and the Romanian Academy. (Paper submission still possible until May 2.)
  • Yale University on May 11-13, 2018. This is the 2nd biennial meeting of the China Health Policy and Management Society (CHPAMS). The topic is Advances in Health Policy and Healthcare: The Road Ahead, with a special focus on Healthy China 2030 national blueprint and two special GLO sessions.
  • Paris on May 23-24, 2018. The Second Meeting of the Society of the Economics of the HOusehold (SEHO) is held at the Paris School of Economics.
  • Berlin on May 23-25, 2018. 25th Conference of the Eurasia Business  and Economics Society (EBES) is jointly organized with GLO and hosted by the FOM University in their Berlin study center.

 

 

 

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Zimmermann spoke at UNU-MERIT about Walls and Fences

On April 18, 2018 at lunchtime (12.00 to 13.00), Klaus F. Zimmermann, Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT and President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO) spoke in the UNU-MERIT Migration Seminar about “The Economics of Walls and Fences”. The event was well-attended and the issues covered were discussed intensively.

As Zimmermann argued, migration research suggests that mobility creates economic welfare. The question then is why there is not more global migration than is observed. One explanation is the existence of borders, either legal, cultural or ethnic constraints, others are limits generated by geography or are simply walls and fences build by humans. Behind the creation of such borders are either humanitarian, military, security or economic arguments. However, migration research also suggests that hindering free mobility creates a larger stock of migrants and delays cultural assimilation, typically the opposite of what those want who propose those borders. Examining the fate of walls and fences around the world, one can conclude that they are in general not very successful. They also tend to be at odds with economic rationale and their popularity as political projects remain a puzzle.

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Mein Freund der Baum ist tot……

Mein Freund der Baum ist tot…… Er starb am frühen Nachmittag, 19. 4. 2018.

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Selective labor immigration policies matter: Insights from Canada in a New GLO Research Paper

Europe is discussing how to improve the labor market performance of economic migrants and their integration chances. The Canadian immigration system is often seen as a model case. Is there an earnings benefit depending on the selection channel under the economic classe? In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Casey Warman, Matthew D. Webb and Christopher Worswick provide strong empirical evidence that selection matters. Using Canadian data sources they find that relative to the Family Class, the Adult Arrivals in the Skilled Worker category have earnings that are 29% higher for men and 38% higher for women.  Child Arrival immigrants landing in the Skilled Worker Class have similar earnings advantages.

GLO Fellow Casey Warman is associated with the Department of Economics, Dalhousie University and NBER.

GLO Fellow Matthew D. Webb is associated with the Department of Economics, Carleton University

GLO Fellow Christopher Worswick is associated  with the Department of Economics, Carleton University and CReAM

Casey Warman, Matthew D. Webb & Christopher Worswick: Immigrant Category of Admission and the Earnings of Adults and Children: How far does the Apple Fall? GLO Discussion Paper No. 196.  FREE DOWNLOAD: Download PDF

ABSTRACT

Immigrants  in  many  Western  countries  have  experienced  poor  economic  outcomes. This has led to a lack of integration of child immigrants (the 1.5 generation) and the second generation in some countries.  However, in Canada, child immigrants and the second generation have on average integrated very well economically.  The study examines the importance of Canada’s admission classes to determine if there is an earnings benefit of the selection under the Economic Classes to:  (i) the Adult Arrival immigrants and (ii) the Child Arrival immigrants (1.5 generation) once old enough to enter the labor market.  The study employs unique administrative data on landing records matched with subsequent  income  tax  records  that  also  allows  for  the  linking  of  the  records  of  Adult Arrival parents and their Child Arrival children.  It is found that relative to the Family Class, the Adult Arrivals in the Skilled Worker category have earnings that are 29% higher for men and 38% higher for women.  These differences persist even after controlling for  detailed  personal  characteristics  such  as  education  and  language  fluency  at  21% for men and 27% for women. Child Arrival immigrants landing in the Skilled Worker Class have earnings advantages (as adults) over their Family Class counterparts of 17% for men and 21% for women.  These Child Arrival Skilled Worker advantages remain at 9% for men and 14% for women after controlling for child characteristics, the Principal Applicant parent’s characteristics and the parent’s subsequent income in Canada. (Abstract marginally adapted from the DP.)

The paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics. The responsible Editor has been Klaus F. Zimmermann.

The study is in line with earlier research on entry category effects of migrant’s labor market performance. For an analysis see a recent review paper:

Zimmermann, Klaus F., Refugee and Migrant Labor Market Integration: Europe in Need of a New Policy Agenda. Mimeo. Presented at the EUI Conference on the Integration of Migrants and Refugees, 29-30 September 2016 in Florence. Published in: Bauböck, R. and Tripkovic, M.,  The Integration of Migrants and Refugees.  An EUI Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography, European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florence 2017, pp. 88 – 100.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

Journal of Population Economics

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Amazing again – Bonn Cherry Blossoms 2018

NOW AGAIN: Party in the “Old City” of Bonn, the so-called Altstadt, the craft and civil city quarter of Bonn/Germany. Cherry trees will unfold soon their full bloom into a sea of cherry blossoms…

 

Bonn Cherry Blossom Festival

WONDERFUL PICTURES

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Does Foreign Aid Stop Refugee Flows? New Evidence for the Policy Debate

In the recent heated public debates in Europe about how to control refugee flows to Europe, it is often argued that foreign aid should be helpful to moderate such migration. In a new Discussion Paper of the Global Labor Organization (GLO), Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs and Sarah Langlotz provide strong empirical evidence using global data sources to suggest that while exogenous aid encourages recipient governments to support the return of citizens, we find no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows in the short term; however, the authors find effects in the very long run.

GLO Fellow Axel Dreher  is associated  with the Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University; KOF Swiss Economic Institute; CEPR; Georg-August University Goettingen; and CESifo.

GLO Fellow Andreas Fuchs is associated with the Research Center for Distributional Conflict and Globalization & Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University.

GLO Fellow Sarah Langlotz is associated  with the Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, Heidelberg University.

Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs & Sarah Langlotz: The Effects of Foreign Aid on Refugee Flows, GLO Discussion Paper No. 195.  FREE DOWNLOAD: Download PDF

ABSTRACT

This article is the first to systematically study whether foreign aid affects the net flows of refugees from recipient countries. Combining refugee data on 141 origin countries over the 1976-2013 period with bilateral Official Development Assistance data, we estimate the causal effects of a country’s aid receipts on both total refugee flows to the world and flows to donor countries. The interaction of donor-government fractionalization and a recipient country’s probability of receiving aid provides a powerful and excludable instrumental variable,when we control for country – and time-fixed effects that capture the levels of the interacted variables. Although our results suggest that exogenous aid induces recipient governments to encourage the return of their citizens, we find no evidence that aid reduces worldwide refugee outflows or flows to donor countries in the short term. However, we observe long-run effects after four three-year periods, which appear to be driven by lagged positive effects of aid on growth. (Abstract marginally adapted from the DP.)

The study is in line with earlier research on South-North refugee migration. As Rotte, Vogler and Zimmermann (1997) have shown in their econometric analysis using refugee migration data to Germany, the issue had been discussed before. Short-term measures would not work, a long-term perspective would be needed.

Ralph Rotte, Michael Vogler & Klaus F. Zimmermann (1997), South-North Refugee Migration: Lessons for Development Cooperation, Review of Development Economics, 1 (1), pp. 99-115. Access.

Abstract: Migration has become a major concern of European development policies. By improving socio-economic and political conditions through development cooperation, a reduction of South-North migration flows is envisaged. This new approach is examined by analyzing the causes of asylum migration from developing countries to Germany. The econometric findings suggest that support of democracy, economic development and trade will not reduce migration, at least not in the medium-run. However, restrictive legal measures work. Migration control by international development cooperation therefore seems to need a long-term perspective.

Titles and free access to all GLO Discussion Papers

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers).

Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

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