Klaus F. Zimmermann

An Italian view about the challenges of the #coronacrisis.

Posted on April 6, 2020 by admin

The world still struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis. Radical alternatives focus around (i) herd immunity and selective social distancing and (ii) a total lockdown of the economy and the entire society. In previous posts the GLO website was reporting about the strategy of lockdown, the societal consequences and the arguments against it, and the alternative Swedish strategy. Today we listen to a feedback from Italy, the country hit hardest first after China. The interview partner is Alessandro Cigno of the University of Florence.

Some core messages of the interview:

The course of the contagion is the same everywhere.
Italy is on its way out of the crisis.
It started in the most populated North with global connections, affecting the most vulnerable.
Italy has an efficient public health system which managed the crisis.
The radical lockdown had no alternative and saved very many lives.
The missing European solidarity may result in the end of European unification.

GLO Fellow Alessandro Cigno is a Professor of Economics at the University of Florence, and Editor of the Journal of Population Economics.

Interview

GLO: The coronacrisis in Italy has become a terrible catastrophe, and there is no end in sight…..

Alessandro Cigno: ….not quite true that there is no end in sight in Italy. The number of contagions has stabilized, and the number of intensive care cases is decreasing , the number cured or dead is larger than the number of new cases…..

GLO: But what can the other countries learn from the Italian experiences? Why was the coronavirus affecting Italy suddenly like a tsunami?

Alessandro Cigno: The course of the contagion is the same everywhere. It just started earlier in Italy.

GLO: Why has the disease largely affected first the North and so much the Old?

Alessandro Cigno: The North is more densely populated and has more intense relations with the rest of the world. The old are more likely to have other pathologies.

GLO: What role played the openness of the country, the strength of the healthcare system and the strong family relationships in the Italian culture? What role played missing data and slow government response?

Alessandro Cigno: Openness facilitated the contagion. Fortunately we have an efficient public health system. But the number of intensive care beds per 1000 inhabitants, while double that of the UK, was initially half of that of France and one third that of Germany. That number has been raised very quickly. Strong family relationships helped the contagion, especially from the young to the old. As Italy was the first to start, the government response was unavoidably tentative (that of other countries who started later had no excuse).

GLO: Italy is strongly related to China through the Belt & Road initiative. Has this played any role?

Alessandro Cigno: The Belt & Road initiative may have played a role.

GLO: Were the radical lockdown measures effective?

Alessandro Cigno: Radical lockdown is estimated to have saved 30 000 lives.

GLO: Did Italy discuss alternatives?

Alessandro Cigno: Alternatives to lockdown were and are discussed, but the scientific and medical consensus is that they are inferior.

GLO: How do Italians react to the missing European solidarity in this crisis?

Alessandro Cigno: Italians are offended by the missing European solidarity and fear that it will be the end of European unification.

*************
With Alessandro Cigno spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

Related GLO research:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020):
Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494; Discussion Paper of the Month March.
More Information.

Activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the Coronavirus.

Ends;

Posted in Interview, News, Policy | Comments Off

Online Job Vacancy Data to Explore the Wage Setting and Unemployment Trade-off

Posted on April 4, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a weak trade-off between aggregated national-level wage inflation and unemployment.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 503, 2020

Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data – Download PDF
by Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy

GLO Fellow Oleksandr Talavera

Author Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between labour market conditions and wage dynamics by exploiting a unique dataset of 0.8 million online job vacancies. We find a weak trade-off between aggregated national-level wage inflation and unemployment. This link becomes more evident when wage inflation is disaggregated at sectoral and occupational levels. Using exogenous variations in local market unemployment as the main identification strategy, a negative correlation between vacancy-level wage and unemployment is also established. The correlation magnitude, however, is different across regions and skill segments. Our findings suggest the importance of micro data’s unique dimensions in examining wage setting – unemployment relationship.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Posted in News, Research | Comments Off

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month March is about the Coronavirus.

Posted on April 4, 2020 by admin

The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month March suggests that the public health measures adopted in China have effectively contained the virus outbreak there already around February 15.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs downloadable for free.

GLO Discussion Paper of the Month: March

GLO Discussion Paper No. 494, 2020

Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei
PDF of the GLO Discussion Paper

GLO Fellows Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi

Yun Qiu & Wei Shi are Professors at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University, China
Xi Chen is a Professor at Yale University & President of the China Health Policy and Management Society

Author Abstract: This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population flow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19.

GLO Discussion Papers of March 2020

506 The Dynamic Electoral Returns of a Large Anti-Poverty Program – Download PDF
by Zimmermann, Laura

505 Do Public Program Benefits Crowd Out Private Transfers in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence – Download PDF
by Nikolov, Plamen & Bonci, Matthew

504 Why Guarantee Employment? Evidence from a Large Indian Public-Works Program – Download PDF
by Zimmermann, Laura

503 Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data – Download PDF
by Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy

502 Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets – Download PDF
by Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M.

501 Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke B.

500 Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity – Download PDF
by Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar & Weber, Clas

499 Game of Prejudice – Experiments at the Extensive and Intensive Margin – Download PDF
by Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Vecci, Joe & Želinský, Tomáš

498 Welfare Magnets and Internal Migration in China – Download PDF
by Jin, Zhangfeng

497 Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China and India – Download PDF
by Emran, M. Shahe & Jiang, Hanchen & Shilpi, Forhad

496 What Do Employers’ Associations Do? – Download PDF
by Martins, Pedro S.

495 Does vocational education pay off in China? Instrumental-variable quantile-regression evidence – Download PDF
by Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S.

494 Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China – Download PDF
by Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wie

493 Flexible Work Arrangements and Precautionary Behavior: Theory and Experimental Evidence – Download PDF
by Orland, Andreas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud

492 Life Satisfaction, Subjective Wealth, and Adaptation to Vulnerability in the Russian Federation during 2002-2017 – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Abanokova, Kseniya & Lokshin, Michael M.

491 Unobserved Worker Quality and Inter-Industry Wage Differentials – Download PDF
by Ge, Suqin & Macieira, João

490 Climate Shocks and Teenage Fertility – Download PDF
by Dessy, Sylvain & Marchetta, Francesca & Pongou, Roland & Tiberti, Luca

489 Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Latin American Economies: An Empirical Approach – Download PDF
by Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Pastore, Francesco & Yavuz, Hasan Bilgehan

488 Employee Training and Firm Performance: Quasi-experimental evidence from the European Social Fund – Download PDF
by Martins, Pedro S.

487 France and Germany Exceed Italy, South Korea and Japan in Temperature-Adjusted Corona Proliferation: A Quick and Dirty Sunday Morning Analysis – Download PDF
by Puhani, Patrick A.

486 Business visits, technology transfer and productivity growth – Download PDF
by Piva, Mariacristina & Tani, Massimiliano & Vivarelli, Marco

485 A Broken Social Elevator? Employment Outcomes of First- and Second-generation Immigrants in Belgium – Download PDF
by Piton, Céline & Rycx, François

484 What Does Someone’s Gender Identity Signal to Employers? – Download PDF
by Van Borm, Hannah & Dhoop, Marlot & Van Acker, Allien & Baert, Stijn

483 The Future of Work in Developing Economies: What can we learn from the South? – Download PDF
by Egana del Sol, Pablo

482 Performance Feedback and Peer Effects – Download PDF
by Villeval, Marie Claire

481 Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Connelly, Luke B. & Le, Huong Thu & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R.

480 Conversionary Protestants do not cause democracy – Download PDF
by Nikolova, Elena & Polansky, Jakub

GLO DP Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org

Ends;

Posted in News, Research | Tagged #coronavirus, #lockdown, #socialdistancing, COVID-19 | Comments Off

Does less lockdown work? Insights from the Swedish strategy.

Posted on April 3, 2020 by admin

The world still struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis. Radical alternatives focus around (i) herd immunity and selective social distancing and (ii) a total lockdown of the economy and the entire society. In previous posts the GLO website was reporting about the strategy of lockdown, the societal consequences and the arguments against it. Today we investigate a constructive alternative, the Swedish strategy.

Some core messages of the interview:

Sweden has clearly focused less on forcing people to increase social distance and more on encouraging people to act responsibly.
There’s clearly social pressure to comply with recommendations from the government.
Government agencies are more independent from political influence in Sweden.
The stated objective has been to “flatten the curve” to avoid overburdening the health care system.
A feared “crisis-fatigue” is one major reason why the Swedish Public Health Authority has been reluctant to push social distancing further.
Sweden’s great registry data will only in the long-run help to understand the viruscrisis better.
Covid-19 will not change the Swedish very positive outlook on globalization.

GLO Fellow Erik Lindqvist is a Professor of Economics at the Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University, and Editor of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Interview

GLO: While most of the European governments have applied very restrictive measures to fight the Coronacrisis, Sweden’s reaction remains more relaxed: What are the key elements of the Swedish strategy?

Erik Lindqvist: The Swedish government has implemented a number of measures similar (though less comprehensive) to those in other countries. Public gatherings larger than 50 people are no longer allowed; almost all education in upper secondary-school and universities is now online; visits to nursery homes are no longer allowed, etc. These sharp measures are combined with pleas to the public to reduce travel; to work from home in case it’s feasible; to avoid public transport during rush hour, etc. High-risk groups (especially people above age 70) are strongly encouraged to self-isolate to the extent possible. Yet unlike most other countries, restaurants, schools, gyms and similar facilities are still open. So, Sweden has clearly focused less on forcing people to increase social distance and more on encouraging people to act responsibly.

GLO: Has the Swedish population more “social discipline” than other nations that allow for such a strategy?

Erik Lindqvist: There’s clearly social pressure to comply with recommendations from the government and my impression is many (though not all) do. But whether this pressure is stronger in Sweden than in other countries I really don’t know.

GLO: While the decisive actors in most countries are policymakers, who use the moment to strengthen their profile as conflict managers which ends in what has been called “availability cascades”, Sweden’s policy seems to be more designed by the Swedish Public Health Authority than by the government.

Erik Lindqvist: Compared to most other countries, government agencies are more independent from political influence in Sweden. But I also think the Swedish government has deliberately chosen to rely on advice of the Swedish Public Health Authority regarding the public health-side of the crisis.

GLO: Are there outlined objectives of the Swedish policy, and how do the Swedish authorities measure success?

Erik Lindqvist: The stated objective has been to “flatten the curve” to avoid overburdening the health care system. My impression is that this is the key factor guiding policy. I am unaware of any explicit quantitative targets beyond that.

GLO: How important is it that an initial response is in line with a long-term consistent policy?

Erik Lindqvist: From what I gather, I think a fear “crisis-fatigue” is one major reason for why the Swedish Public Health Authority has been reluctant to push as far ahead with social distancing as other countries have done. My personal hope is that Sweden (and other countries) might be able to implement somewhat less restrictive measures in the long-term by ramping up testing for Covid-19. This also seems to be underway, though perhaps not yet quite as forcefully as I personally would have hoped for.

GLO: What is the data situation in Sweden, which typically has excellent individual-level data. Can those data be used to handle the situation effectively, by connecting them with good measures of infections, deaths and those recovered?

Erik Lindqvist: Sweden indeed has great registry data which in time will allow researchers to learn a lot about Covid-19. Yet because there is a lag of, say, 3-6 months before the relevant registries are updated, such analyses are not yet possible. I think this is unfortunate – analyses using real-time data could help inform policy as the crisis unfolds – but I also understand and respect the fact that updating the data is non-trivial and that the people responsible for it have many other pressing matters to attend to at this moment.

GLO: Will Swedes consider globalization as a burden after this crisis?

Erik Lindqvist: The effect of Covid-19 on globalization is, I think, one of the major issues for the years to come after the crisis. Swedes in general have a very positive outlook on globalization – we are, after all, a small, export-dependent country. My guess is Covid-19 will not change this. But a somewhat soberer view on the extent to which we can rely on global supply chains in times of crisis is inevitable, I think. There seems to be general agreement in Swedish policy circles that we need to increase our storage of basic medical supplies, for instance.

*************
With Erik Lindqvist spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

Related GLO research:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020):
Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494. Introduction.

Activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the Coronavirus.

Ends;

Posted in Interview, News, Policy | Comments Off

How Twitter Tweets Relate to Stock Market Movements in Developed and Emerging Markets

Posted on April 2, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that investor sentiments and emotions derived from stock market-related Twitter tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements in developed and emerging markets.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 502, 2020

Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets – Download PDF
by Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M.

GLO Fellow Talita Greyling

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the predictability of stock market movements using text data extracted from the social media platform, Twitter. We analyze text data to determine the sentiment and the emotion embedded in the tweets and use them as explanatory variables to predict stock market movements. The study contributes to the literature by analyzing high-frequency data and comparing the results obtained from analyzing emerging and developed markets, respectively. To this end, the study uses three different Machine Learning Classification Algorithms, the Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors and the Support Vector Machine algorithm. Furthermore, we use several evaluation metrics such as the Precision, Recall, Specificity and the F-1 score to test and compare the performance of these algorithms. Lastly, we use the K-Fold Cross-Validation technique to validate the results of our machine learning models and the Variable Importance Analysis to show which variables play an important role in the prediction of our models. The predictability of the market movements is estimated by first including sentiment only and then sentiment with emotions. Our results indicate that investor sentiment and emotions derived from stock market-related Tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements, not only in developed markets but also in emerging markets.

Ends;

Posted in News, Research | Comments Off

Global Insights – eine Meinung: Coronavirus und das Elend des “Lockdowns”.

Posted on April 2, 2020 by admin

Wie die Prognostiker in der Finanzmarktkrise können heute die Virologen noch nicht viel über das neue Virus wissen. Deshalb ist nicht überraschend, daß nach einer Periode des Zögerns der Herdeneffekt des Handelns einsetzt. Sobald der/die Erste losrennt, weil sie/er glaubt, etwas zu wissen, finden sich andere, die folgen. Das verstehen alle als Wissen und rennen hinterher. Wir haben ja nicht viel dazugelernt. Deshalb bleiben bereits heute alle zuhause; und alle tragen morgen Gesichtsmasken.

Gerade wer die Gefahr sehr Ernst nimmt, muß sorgfältig abwägen. Warum gab es keinen frühzeitig organisierten internationalen Erfahrungsaustausch über die Ansteckungsprozesse, Erhebung von Individualdaten im laufenden Prozeß und flächendeckende Surveys mit Tests zur Verfolgung des Ausmaßes der Ansteckung? So ist die Datenlage für Regierungshandeln außerordentlich dünn, sie wäre noch dünner, gäbe es nicht die Johns Hopkins University. Die psychischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen der inzwischen vollzogenen globalen “Lockdowns” sind dramatisch; es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, daß sie die direkten Kosten des Virus bei weitem überschreiten. Langfristig wird es immer wahrscheinlicher, daß das Virus die bereits erfolgte Einschränkung der Globalisierung mit den negativen Konsequenzen für die Weltwohlfahrt dauerhaft verstärkt.

Nun ist der Fehler gemacht und wir müssen zunächst sehen, was aus den jetzigen “Lockdowns” gelernt werden kann. Natürlich müssen die medizinischen Kapazitäten unbedingt massiv hochgefahren werden. Aus den Erfahrungen alternativer Strategien wie in Südkorea und Schweden sind Schlüsse zu ziehen. Entscheidend ist aber zu verstehen, wie unter der zunächst weiteren Abwesenheit eines Impfstoffes wirtschaftliche Produktion mit der Identifizierung und Sicherung der Problemgruppen und ihrer Betreuer raschmöglichst kombiniert werden kann. Zu registrieren, wer die Virusinfektion erfolgreich hinter sich hat und welche Jobs bei grundlegenden Verhaltensregeln relativ ansteckungsungefährlich sind, kommt entscheidende Bedeutung zu. Das Virus wird uns so schnell nicht verlassen. (KFZ)

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Wirtschaftsprofessor und Präsident der Global Labor Organization (GLO), äußert hier seine Meinung.

Referenzen
1. Debattenbeiträge aus dem GLO Netzwerk.
2. Gespräch mit Xi Chen von der Yale University über den Erfolg des chinesischen Lockdowns.
3. Gespräch mit Robert Sauer, Royal Halloway, University of London, über seine Forderung nach dem sofortigen Ausstieg aus den globalen Lockdowns.
4. Gespräch mit Erik Lindqvist, Stockholm University, über die schwedische Coronavirus-Strategie. Medienreferenz.
5. Gespräch von Markus Lanz mit dem Virologen der Universität Bonn, Hendrik Streeck. ZDF-Sendung. Medienreferenz.

Ends;

Posted in News, Policy | Comments Off

The lockdown strategy on the Coronavirus has negative consequences for emotions and wellbeing of South Africans.

Posted on April 1, 2020 by admin

“COVID-19 Lockdown plays havoc with emotions and our “Happiness Index” stays under pressure“, GLO Fellows Talita Greyling and Stephanié Rossouw find in a new study. The lockdown strategy shows immediate negative consequences for wellbeing in South Africa. The Gross National Happiness data set used (a real-time Happiness Index) is an ongoing project, the two researchers launched in April 2019 in South- Africa, New-Zealand and Australia. See the detailed analysis below.

The authors

Talita Greyling: School of Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, and GLO; email: talitag@uj.ac.za
Stephanié Rossouw: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand, and GLO; email: stephanie.rossouw@aut.ac.nz

The analysis

South Africans are “angry” after their first weekend under lockdown. COVID-19 has been playing havoc with South African’s emotions over the last month. We have made 180 degrees turn in our emotional state; from being joyful, anticipating good things to happen and showing trust, to being angry, anticipating the worst and showing disgust and fear. Over the period, the most significant gainers, among the emotions, were anger, up with almost 10%, followed by disgust (+8%) (see figure 1, indicated by the black arrows). In contrast, the biggest losers were trust (-13%) and joy (-6%) (see figure 1 indicated by grey arrows) (Greyling & Rossouw 2020).

These are the results of Prof Talita Greyling (University of Johannesburg) and Dr Stephanie Rossouw (Auckland University of Technology) who in collaboration with Afstereo launched South Africa’s Happiness Index in April 2019 and recently expanded their study to include the analysis of the emotions of South Africans.

Why are South Africans so angry? From the analyses of the Tweets (see www.gnh.today) the team (Greyling & Rossouw, 2020) found the following:

Mad at police and military, because of the aggressive and violent manner the COVID – regulations are enforced.
Angry about people being greedy and making money out of COVID-19, when the country is suffering.
Angry at government playing politics in a time of fear, and uncertainty about the future.
Mad about Moody’s downgrade to junk status, “kicking the country when it is already down”.
Angry about being isolated, cut-off and no way to release stress or alleviate depression and anxiety.
Concerned about the increase in domestic violence, interesting not only men towards women, but among all members of the household.
Mad at not being able to buy alcohol (previously also cigarettes).
Being stuck at home and then also having to endure loadshedding
Lack of groceries after the rich has bought everything
God is mad, this is a sign of His wrath

Is there anything that South Africans are positive about at the moment? Well, it seems that in true South African spirit we cling to the silver lining in this storm that threatens to swallow us. “Family time” seems to be one of the few positives. In this never-ending rat race, being able to spend quality time with our loved ones seems to be our saving grace. Other positives mentioned are “time for self-reflection” and “time to turn to God”.

If we turn to the Happiness Index itself, which measures the sentiment levels of South Africans on a scale from zero to 10 J, with 5 being neutral (neither happy or unhappy) (see www.gnh.today), we note that the index stays under pressure. After the significant lows on the days before-, on- and after the announcement of the lockdown (23 March 2020), there was a short lived increase in happiness levels, as people rushed to shops and their home towns/steads (migrating out of the cities), in anticipation of the lockdown. However, the happiness levels soon returned to the “new lows” we have been experiencing since the announcement of the first COVID-19 patient in South Africa (see figure 2).

As reality sinks in and the health and livelihoods of South Africans’ come under threat, it becomes clear that “Twenty Plenty” has made a 180-degree turnaround to “Twenty Catastrophe”.

Reference
Greyling T. & Rossouw S. 2020. Gross National Happiness Project. Afstereo (IT partner). University of Johannesburg (funding agency). Pretoria, South Africa. www.gnh.today.

Ends;

Posted in News, Policy | Comments Off

Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families largely do not claim their benefits.

Posted on April 1, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families to find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 501, 2020

Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke B.

GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen, Huong Le & Luke Connelly

Author Abstract: Recent economic literature has advanced the notion that cognitive biases and behavioral barriers may be important influencers of uptake decisions in respect of public programs that are designed to help disadvantaged people. This paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey linked to administrative data with accurate information on eligibility and uptake, we find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits. These actual uptake rates are about half of the targeted access rates that were announced for them. We provide new and robust evidence consistent with the idea that cognitive biases and behavioral factors are barriers to uptake. For instance, mothers with worse mental health or riskier lifestyles are much less likely to claim the available benefits for their children. These barriers to uptake are particularly large in magnitude: together they reduce the uptake rate by up to 10 percentage points (or 36%). We also find some indicative evidence about the presence of the lack of information barrier to uptake. The results are robust to a wide range of sensitivity checks, including controlling for possible endogenous sample selection.

Ends;

Posted in News, Research | Comments Off

Speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious

Posted on March 31, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 500, 2020

Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity – Download PDF
by Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar & Weber, Clas

GLO Fellows Astghik Mavisakalyan & Yashar Tarverdi

Author Abstract: This paper identifies a new source of differences in religiosity: the presence of future tense marking in language. We argue that the rewards and punishments that incentivize religious behavior are less effective for speakers of languages that contain future tense marking. Consistent with this prediction, we show that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious and to take up the short-term costs associated with religiosity. What is likely to drive this behavior, according to our results, is the relatively lower appeal of the religious rewards for these individuals. Our analysis is based on within country regressions comparing individuals with identical observable characteristics who speak a different language.

Ends;

Posted in News, Research | Comments Off

Globalism and Chinese lessons from the Coronavirus crisis. Interview with CCG President Henry Wang.

Posted on March 30, 2020 by admin

The world struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis and reflects the consequences thereafter: What are the recommendations from Beijing’s top policy advisor Henry Wang?

The most important thing is taking decisive and comprehensive action as soon as the virus starts to spread.
New formats of internet business, including online medical services, online education, and working at home through online apps, have grown significantly.
The virus may rebound if we relax our vigilance.
The pandemic reveals not the failure of globalization, but the need to innovate global governance systems and boost international cooperation.
In the long run, the movement of labor and talent has created more benefits than problems.

GLO Fellow Huiyao (“Henry”) Wang is a Professor and President of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), the largest non-government think tank in China. CCG and GLO are collaborating institutions.

Interview

GLO: China seems to have managed the Corona Crisis. What are the major lessons?

Huiyao Wang: I think the most important thing is taking decisive and comprehensive action as soon as the virus starts to spread. The non-pharmaceutical measures China took might seem economically damaging at first, but it is that the sacrifice gave us a better chance to control the pandemic as quickly as possible. If we had underestimated the coronavirus, the potential losses could have been far greater.

And another thing is the well-equipped internet infrastructure and the thriving internet industries that played a big role in distributing medical resources and basic supplies for people in quarantine during the coronavirus outbreak. Additionally, new formats of internet business, including online medical services, online education, and working at home through online apps, have grown significantly. These businesses helped to allow society to continue operating and lowered the economic pressure so that we could keep the economy going while employing social distancing.

GLO: Will the virus come back?

Huiyao Wang: I think there’s a chance that the virus rebounds if we relax our vigilance. Although China has made it to contain the coronavirus overall, it is too early to relax now due to the global outbreak. We can see that there are dozens of new cases appearing every day, mostly coming from other countries. The Chinese central government and local governments as well as every citizen are staying cautious and alert.

In this special time, all countries should work together and spare no effort against the virus, in line with the joint statement achieved at the G20 summit several days ago. Like President Xi Jinping said, we should build a community with shared future for mankind, since globalization has tied countries together. Discrimination and hatred will not do any good when facing the challenges brought by the virus, and other transnational challenges like climate change.

GLO: Some say the pandemic is the curse of globalism, did it go too far?

Huiyao Wang: The coronavirus indeed has caused a global crisis, however, if we believe globalization will go reverse or countries should decouple to protect themselves, then we are wrong. Coronavirus is just one of the global challenges that we are facing. Climate change, environmental degradation, WTO reforms – these challenges are all awaiting us and none of them can be overcome without international cooperation, bilaterally and multilaterally. The pandemic reveals not the failure of globalization, but the need to innovate global governance systems and boost international cooperation.

I think the G20 meeting was a good start. On the 27th, President Xi and President Trump had a phone call the day after the G20 meeting. This sent a good signal that China and the US are going to set aside the disputes and work together. Despite the talk about competition between China and the US, I believe the two countries have enough reasons to collaborate. Being rivals will do no good to either country.

GLO: How can global solidarity look like in this crisis?

Huiyao Wang: I think it failed to meet our expectations somehow at the beginning, but now after the G20, I hope countries can unite and fight against the virus together.

When the outbreak started in China, many countries donated and helped, which was significant for China to control the coronavirus domestically. However, after the coronavirus began to spread globally, global solidarity appeared vulnerable.

After the G20, the countries have presented a joint statement announcing a fund of 500 million US$ to combat the disease and other key messages about reviving the global economy. If these are carried out, I think we will walk out of the shadow cast by the pandemic.

GLO: The Coronavirus is a strike of nature against globalism: What is its future, in particular for labor migration?

Huiyao Wang: I think it is short-sighted if we blame the outbreak on labor migration, since the cause is more complex than that and we could have taken better precautions to avoid it. In the long run, the movement of labor and talent has created more benefits than problems.

I think we should improve and innovate the global governance of migration rather than go against it. Especially, we should establish an emergency mechanism to regulate transnational movement of people when an outbreak occurs like this time to minimize the impact.

*************
With Huiyao Wang spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

Related GLO research:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.

See also the recent GLO – Interview with GLO Fellow Xi Chen of Yale University.

Henry Wang (right) & Klaus F. Zimmermann at the CCG Headquarter in Beijing in December 2019 during a previous visit.

Ends;

Posted in Interview, News | Comments Off

Klaus F. Zimmermann

An Italian view about the challenges of the #coronacrisis.

Interview

Online Job Vacancy Data to Explore the Wage Setting and Unemployment Trade-off