GLO Fellow Colin Cannonier, Associate Professor at Belmont University, has been appointed GLO Country Lead for St. Kitts and Nevis (a dual-island nation between the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea), where he is a frequent advisor to the government. In 2019, he had delivered a prestigious lecture as the featured speaker at the Annual Prime Minister’s Independence Lecture Series.
His research focus is in applied economics with emphasis in health, labor, education, and how they intersect with public policy and economic development.
He has authored several peer-reviewed articles in scholarly journals such as Economics of Education Review, Journal of Labor Research, Review of Economics of the Household, and Journal of Demographic Economics.
A new GLO Discussion Paperdocuments the short-term effects of COVID-19 in the United States: The negative impacts are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less-educated workers, increasing labor market inequalities. Individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are also more affected.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this ongoing project, we examine the short-term consequences of COVID- 19 on employment and wages in the United States. Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we document the impact of COVID-19 at the national-level using a simple difference and test whether states with relatively more confirmed cases/deaths were more affected. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 in- creased the unemployment rate, decreased hours of work and labor force participation and had no significant impacts on wages. The negative impacts on labor market outcomes are larger for men, younger workers, Hispanics and less-educated workers. This suggest that COVID-19 increases labor market inequalities. We also investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We built three indexes using ACS and O*NET data: workers relatively more exposed to disease, workers that work with proximity to coworkers and workers who can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that individuals in occupations working in proximity to others are more affected while occupations able to work remotely are less affected. We also find that occupations classified as more exposed to disease are less affected, possibly due to the large number of essential workers in these occupations.
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A new GLO Discussion Paper proposes a novel misclassification-error-adjusted Sahm recession indicator that offers earlier identification of economic recessions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO FellowShuaizhang Feng & Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
Shuaizhang Feng
Author Abstract: Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The most successful early detector of recessions, the Sahm rule, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to measurement errors in the U.S. labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-error-adjusted Sahm recession indicator and provide empirically-based optimal threshold values. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted Sahm rule offers earlier identification of economic recessions. Based on the newly released U.S. unemployment rate in March 2020, our adjusted Sahm rule diagnoses the U.S. economy is already in recession, while the original Sahm rule does not.
A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the spatial spillover effect of inward FDI on the rural-urban wage inequality. It finds that inward FDI should not be blamed for the exacerbation of rural-urban wage inequality.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: When investigating the relationship between inward FDI and rural-urban inequality, previous studies overlook the inter-regional interactions. Building on the literature that highlights the significant role of rural-urban migration in inequality, this article investigates spatial spillover effect of inward FDI on the rural-urban wage inequality by utilizing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) both in the short run and long run. In particular, we carefully consider the heterogeneity of inward FDI and categorize it with respect to entry modes and sectoral distribution. On the basis of a panel dataset covering 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016, our results show that overall the inward FDI should not be blamed for the exacerbation of rural-urban wage inequality. We do not find significant relationship between inward FDI in secondary and tertiary sector while the FDI in primary sector has a slight negative effect. When we separate the FDI according to entry modes, we find that WFE is shown to have a negative effect on the rural-urban wage inequality and this effect is more pronounced in the long run when we conduct a period average estimation. This change also similarly applies to the equity joint ventures.
A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the proclaimed competition for the world’s leadership in science, technology and innovation between China and the USA.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: China’s proclaimed aim of becoming the world’s leader in science, technology and innovation by the mid twenty first century has triggered an intense competition with the United States. The latter, feeling threatened in its supremacy in this field, has reacted forcefully. This GLO Discussion Paper examines the nature of this contest, the comparative technological standing of both countries, the pros and cons in this area derived from their respective development models and the plausible outcomes of this competition.
A new GLO Discussion Paperdocuments the pessimistic career expectations people currently have due to the corinavirus crisis on the basis of a new survey for Belgium.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This study is the first in the world to investigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis on career outcomes and career aspirations. To this end, highquality survey research with a relevant panel of Belgian employees was conducted. About 21% of them fear losing their jobs due to the crisis—14% are concerned that they will even lose their jobs in the near future. In addition, 26% expect to miss out on promotions that they would have received had the COVID-19 crisis not occurred. This fear of a negative impact is higher in vulnerable groups, such migrants. In addition, we observe that many panel members believe they will look at the labour market differently and will have different work-related priorities in the future. In this respect, more than half of the panel members indicate that they have attached more importance to working conditions and work-life balance since the COVID-19 crisis.
Incomes in surveys suffer from various measurement problems.A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds that the main source of negative disposable incomes is negative self-employment income.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Incomes in surveys suffer from various measurement problems, most notably in the tails of their distributions. We study the prevalence of negative and zero incomes, and their implications for inequality and poverty measurement relying on 57 harmonized surveys covering 12 countries over the period 1995-2016. The paper explains the composition and sources of negative and zero incomes and assesses the distributional impacts of alternative correction methods on poverty and inequality measures. It finds that the main source of negative disposable incomes is negative self-employment income, and that high tax, social security withholdings and high self-paid social-security contributions account for negative incomes in some countries. Using detailed information on expenditure, we conclude that households with negative incomes are typically as well off as, or even better, than other households in terms of material wellbeing. By contrast, zero-income households are found to be materially deprived. Adjusting poverty and inequality measures for these findings can alter these measures significantly.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots.
A new GLO Discussion Paperreveals that observed income inequality in the access to health care is driven by the fact that higher-income people tend to make greater use of healthcare treatment, for any given health and disability status.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Using longitudinal data from a representative UK panel, we focus on a group of apparently healthy individuals with no history of disability or major chronic health condition at baseline. A latent variable structural equation model is used to analyse the predictive role of latent baseline biological health, indicated by a rich set of biomarkers, and other personal characteristics, in determining the individual’s disability state and health service utilisation five years later. We find that baseline health affects future health service utilisation very strongly, via functional disability as a mediating outcome. Our model reveals that observed income inequality in the access to health care, is driven by the fact that higher-income people tend to make greater use of healthcare treatment, for any given health and disability status. This leads to a slight rise in utilisation with income, despite the lower average need for treatment shown by the negative income gradients for both baseline health and disability outcomes. Factor loadings for latent baseline health show that a broader set of blood-based biomarkers, rather than the current focus mainly on blood pressure, cholesterol and adiposity, may need to be considered for public health screening programs.
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