Does the the forced removal of undocumented immigrants from the United States increases violent crime in Mexican municipalities?A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that municipalities with greater geographic exposure to deportation flows have indeed higher violent crime.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We study whether the forced removal of undocumented immigrants from the United States increases violent crime in Mexican municipalities. Using municipal panel data on homicide rates matched with annual deportation flows from the United States to Mexico, we assess whether municipalities with repatriation points experience higher violent crime with surges in deportation flows. We consistently find that municipalities with greater geographic exposure to deportation flows have higher violent crime. The effects are mostly driven by increments in homicide rates of young males and minors.
Featured image: Photo by Cristian Newman on Unsplash
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public in response to the coronavirus crisis increases dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increases feelings of anxiety.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Fellows Pablo de Pedraza, Martin Guzi & Kea Tijdens
Pablo de Pedraza
Martin Guzi
Kea Tijdens
Author Abstract: The rising numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, prolonged lockdowns, substantial restrictions on public life and an economic downturn negatively affect personal well-being. In this paper, we explore COVID- 19-related determinants of life dissatisfaction and feelings of anxiety using data collected from March 23 to April 30 2020 in 25 advanced and developing countries from four continents. We find that persons with better general health, with a paid job, living with a partner, daily exercising and those avoiding loneliness report less dissatisfaction and less anxiety. The presence of children and a pet in the household has no effect. Women report anxiety feelings more often than men. Older people report lower dissatisfaction and anxiety, remarkable given that the older population is among the most vulnerable in the current pandemic. Jobrelated changes due to COVID-19 such as income reduction and increase or decrease of workload are associated with more dissatisfaction and more anxiety. In reaction to the pandemic governments have adopted a range of measures. We show that restrictions on mobility and requirements to wear protective gear in public increase dissatisfaction and that the state-imposed emergency increase feelings of anxiety. We find that a growing number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increases dissatisfaction and anxiety but that this effect levels off with a higher number of cases. Our findings support targeted government policies to preserve economic security, and increase stability of employment.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that the rising trend in female labor force participation in Australia largely depends on changes in real wages, population composition changes, and changes in labor supply preference parameters.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Female labor force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labor force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labor supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labor force participation.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes in Canada, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. Reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
T. Paul Schultz is the Malcolm K Brachman Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University. With a BA (1961) from Swarthmore College and a PhD (1966) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he spent most of his academic life at Yale University (since 1974).
He is one of the most outstanding population and development economists of our time. His empirical work has had a huge impact on the profession, in particular he helped to establish economic demography. His research has covered fertility and family planning in developing countries and the fertility transition, household models dealing with health and mortality issues, inequality, migration and gender.
At Yale University, he directed the Economic Growth Center from 1983 – 1996.
T. Paul Schultz is a GLO Fellow since the beginning.
He was a keynote speaker at Yale University on May 11-13, 2018 for the second biennial conference of the China Health Policy and Management Society (CHPAMS), focusing on advances in health policy and health care in China and the United States, an event which was supported by the GLO and organized by GLO Cluster Lead Xi Chen.
For a decade (1991 – 2001), he acted as an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and (since 2202) still provides his advice and support as an Associate Editor of this journal.
On May 24, 2020, T. Paul Schultz is celebrating his 80th birthday; the GLO and the Journal of Population Economics express their respect for his immense lifelong achievements and their huge gratitude for the tremendous support received.
Congratulations and best wishes for a healthy, enjoyable and productive future!
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the impact of Covid-19 on working from home and the consequences in Italy: working from home tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The recent global COVID-19 pandemic forced most of governments in developed countries to introduce severe measures limiting people mobility freedom in order to contain the infection spread. Consequently, working from home (WFH) procedures became of great importance for a large part of employees, since they represent the only option to both continue working and keep staying home. Based on influence function regression methods, our paper explores the role of WFH attitude across labour income distribution in Italy. Results show that increasing WFH attitudes of occupations would lead to a rise of wage inequality among Italian employees. The opportunity of WFH tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for welfarestate channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. It argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, contribute to this.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. This comes as a surprise: many scholars have anticipated an upsurge in entrepreneurship, and expected an “entrepreneurial economy” to replace the post-WW2 “managed” economy. Instead of the “entrepreneurial economy” what has come into being may perhaps better be labelled the “ossified economy.” This paper starts by document the decline. It then critically presents the current explanations offered in the literature. While having merit, these explanations are proximate and supply-side oriented. Given these shortcomings, this paper contributes a new perspective: it argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, are also responsible. Implications for entrepreneurship scholarship are drawn.
A new GLO Discussion Paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Household consumption surveys do not typically cover refugee populations, and poverty estimates for refugees are rare. This paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad, by combining United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees survey and administrative data. The proposed method offers poverty estimates based on administrative data that fall within a 95 percent margin of poverty estimates based on survey consumption data. This result is robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error term. The method outperforms common targeting methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method currently used by humanitarian organizations in Chad.
A new GLO Discussion Paper replicates two published articles by seven independent research teams each to document the huge variety of different research strategies chosen and their large differences in outcomes.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Researchers make hundreds of decisions about data collection, preparation, and analysis in their research. We use a many-analysts approach to measure the extent and impact of these decisions. Two published causal empirical results are replicated by seven replicators each. We find large differences in data preparation and analysis decisions, many of which would not likely be reported in a publication. No two replicators reported the same sample size. Statistical significance varied across replications, and for one of the studies the effect’s sign varied as well. The standard deviation of estimates across replications was 3-4 times the typical reported standard error.
