A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that existing cross-language variations among migrants from the same countries of originaffected human capital accumulation of second generation migrantsin the US.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This research establishes empirically that existing cross-language variations in the structure of the future tense and the presence of grammatical gender affected human capital accumulation. Exploiting variations in the dominant languages among migrants from the same countries of origin, the study explores the impact of these traits on the educational attainment of second generation migrants in the US. The results suggest that college attendance among individuals with identical ancestry is (i) higher if the dominating language at home has a periphrastic future tense, and (ii) lower for women exposed predominantly to sex-based grammatical gender.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for the US that firms statistically discriminate workers based on race when employer learning is asymmetric.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We test if firms statistically discriminate workers based on race when employer learning is asymmetric. Using data from the NLSY79, we find evidence of asymmetric employer learning. In addition, employers statistically discriminate against non-college educated black workers at time of hiring. We also find that employers directly observe most of the productivity of college graduates at hiring and learn very little over time about these workers.
A new GLO Discussion Paper for Russia suggests that the measured equivalence scale elasticity is sensitive to household demographic composition. Adjustments result in lower estimates of poverty lines.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Hardly any literature exists on the relationship between equivalence scales and poverty dynamics for transitional countries. We offer a new study on the impacts of equivalence scale adjustments on poverty dynamics in the Russian Federation, using equivalence scales constructed from subjective wealth and more than 20 waves of household panel survey data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The analysis suggests that the equivalence scale elasticity is sensitive to household demographic composition. The adjustments for the equivalence of scales result in lower estimates of poverty lines. We decompose poverty into chronic and transient components and find that chronic poverty is positively related to the adult scale parameter. However, chronic poverty is less sensitive to the child scale factor compared with the adult scale factor. Interestingly, the direction of income mobility might change depending on the specific scale parameters that are employed. The results are robust to different measures of chronic poverty, income expectations, reference groups, functional forms, and various other specifications.
Greece has performed very well in the management of the COVID-19 crisis but faces now a huge economic downturn. What are the elements of success, the challenges ahead and the role of scientific experts? Some insights from an interview with top policy advisor Panos Tsakloglou.
Some core messages of the interview:
Greece has done well since the government followed the advice of epidemiologists and the population respected the requested rules.
Non-essential traveling to the Greek islands was forbidden and hence very few cases of COVID-19 infections were reported.
Trust in was a crucial factor of success.
There were few infections recorded in refugee camps and settlements : They were dealt with swiftly and the authorities tried to create a sanitary zone.
Greece will experience the strongest negative economic impact from the pandemic among all EU countries since it relies excessively on activities that particular sensitive in the current crisis.
The country soon expects expert proposals for a new growth plan of the economy and the reforms necessary for its implementation.
Greece lacks behind in Europe in the development of the digital economy, but has made progress in the crisis.
The Greek lesson for the government: (i) listening to the experts, (ii) taking swift and early action, and (iii) convincing the population about the necessity of the actions taken.
The Greek government is prepared to listen to expert opinion.
GLO Fellow Panos Tsakloglou is Professor at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He is a Research Fellow of IZA and the Hellenic Observatory of LSE. During the period 2012-2014 he was Chairman of the Greek Government’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Middle photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
Interview
GLO: How has Greece outperformed most of Europe in the handling of the coronavirus pandemic?
Panos Tsakloglou: It seems that this can be attributed to the combination of two factors. First, the government followed the advice of medical experts (epidemiologists) and imposed lockdown and social distancing measures quite early. Second, unlike the stereotype image of unruly Mediterraneans, the population respected the rules. As a result, in the middle of June Greece has just 18 deaths due to COVID-19 per million of population.
GLO: Are there natural advantages, like the many islands Greece has?
Panos Tsakloglou: Not really. Apart from the largest of these islands, most of them do not have the appropriate hospital facilities to deal with serious COVID-19 cases. However, in the framework of lockdown measures, non-essential traveling to the islands was forbidden and, therefore, very few cases of COVID-19 infections were reported.
GLO: Trust in the activities of the government is often seen as a crucial factor. What role did this play?
Panos Tsakloglou: This was a crucial factor, indeed. Several opinion polls taken since the outbreak of the pandemic record levels of trust to the government handling of the crisis that we have not seen in Greece for a very long period of time.
GLO: Migrants and refugee camps are sensitive elements of the challenge in many countries. What is the Greek strategy?
Panos Tsakloglou: With one major exception that, fortunately, did not result to loss of life, there were few infections recorded in refugee camps and settlements and they were dealt with swiftly. Early on, the authorities tried to create a sanitary zone to such facilities since an outbreak there could have had devastating consequences. On the contrary, the rate of infections of other vulnerable groups, such as Roma, was higher than the population average, although nowhere near the rates recorded in other European countries.
GLO: What role can Europe play for the Greek recovery?
Panos Tsakloglou: The timing of the pandemic was quite unfortunate for Greece, since it happened just when the economy was taking off after years of recession. Although so far Greece has handled the pandemic successfully, the OECD, the IMF and the European Commission predict that this year Greece will experience the strongest impact from the pandemic among all EU countries, since it relies excessively on activities that are likely to be severely hit in the current crisis (such as tourism and shipping) and, further, due to the high public debt the fiscal space of the country is limited. The inclusion of Greece in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme of the ECB allowed Greece to access international capital markets in favorable terms, while if the Recovery Fund proposal of the European Commission is accepted, Greece will be one of the largest beneficiaries with plenty of resources available for investments that can facilitate a speedy recovery in the coming years.
GLO:How does Greece prepare for the economic revival of the country?
Panos Tsakloglou: Even before the eruption of the pandemic, the government had asked a group of economists led by Nobel laureate Sir Christopher Pissaridis to make proposals for a new growth plan of the economy and the reforms necessary for its implementation. Naturally, after the pandemic and in anticipation of the inflow of resources available through the Recovery Fund, the work of this committee had to be adjusted accordingly. Their proposals are expected in the coming weeks.
GLO:What role will the digital economy play for the future of Greece?
Panos Tsakloglou: According to the latest report of the European Commission only Bulgaria ranks below Greece in the EU in terms of digital skills of the population and progress in digital economy. However, during the pandemic there was rapid and substantial progress in several aspects of digital government – an area that Greece’s record is abysmal. The government has stated on many occasions that digital economy is among its priorities. If there is, indeed, a rapid digitization of the economy in the coming years we are likely to experience both an outburst of growth and an improvement in the citizens’ daily lives.
GLO:What can Europe learn from Greece?
Panos Tsakloglou: I think that Greece’s handling of the pandemic was one of the few nice surprises of the current crisis. Greece’s success was due to a combination of government’s (a) listening to the experts, (b) taking swift and early action, and, (c) convincing the population about the necessity of the actions taken. This is, probably, the lesson that Europe can learn from Greece.
GLO: Is the Greek government listening to scientists these days?
Panos Tsakloglou: The examples cited above about decisions on lockdown and social distancing measures based the advice of medical experts and the formation of the Pissaridis committee to draft a growth plan for the economy probably demonstrate that the Greek government is, indeed, prepared to listen to expert opinion. Nevertheless, we should not forget that in democracies decisions are taken by elected politician; not unelected experts.
************* With Panos Tsakloglou spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.
Posted inInterview, Policy|Comments Off on Interview with the Greek Policy Advisor and GLO Fellow Panos Tsakloglou on the Greek Story in the COVID-19 Crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper for the Vietnam finds that having a job is strongly and positively associated with better finance and more income and savings, as well as more optimism about the resilience of the economy in the COVID-19 crisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in income and employment loss in many countries around the world. Yet, hardly any formal study exists on household finance and future economic expectations in poorer countries. To fill in this gap, we implemented and analyzed a web-based rapid assessment survey immediately after the removal of lockdown measures in Vietnam, a lower-middle-income country that has received widespread recognition for its successful fight against the pandemic. We find that having a job is strongly and positively associated with better finance and more income and savings, as well as more optimism about the resilience of the economy. Further disaggregating employment into different types of jobs such as self-employment and jobs with permanent and short-term contracts, we find those with permanent job contracts to be more strongly associated with better assessments and fewer job worries. Individuals with good health and higher educational levels also have more positive evaluations for their current and future finance. These findings are relevant for post-outbreak economic policies, especially regarding the labor market in a developing country context.
Posted inNews, Research|Comments Off on Turning Vietnam’s COVID-19 Success into Economic Recovery: A Job-Focused Analysis of Individual Assessments on Their Finance and the Economy
A new GLO Discussion Paper for the UK finds that psychological distress and inequality of opportunity for it has substantially increased during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We use data from Wave 9 of UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and the April 2020 Wave of the UKHLS COVID-19 survey to compare measures of ex ante inequality of opportunity (IOp) in psychological distress, as measured by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), before (Wave 9) and at the initial peak (April 2020) of the pandemic. Based on a Caseness measure, the prevalence of psychological distress increases from 18.3% to 28.3% between Wave 9 and April 2020. Also, there is a systematic increase in total inequality in the Likert GHQ-12 score. However, measures of IOp have not increased. Specifically, the proportion of total inequality attributed to circumstances has declined, consistent with the notion that the pandemic is, to some extent, a leveller as far as psychological distress is considered. A Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition analysis shows that in the pre-COVID-19 period the largest contributors to IOp were financial strain, employment status and housing conditions. In contrast, in April 2020, these factors decline in their shares and age and gender now account for a larger share. The contribution of working in an industry related to the COVID-19 response plays a small role at Wave 9, but more than triples its share in April 2020. Household composition and parental occupation also increase their shares during the pandemic.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that immigrant inflow has reduced workplace accidents of Spanish workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper examines the effect of immigration on workplace safety, a new and previously unexplored outcome in the literature. We use a novel administrative dataset of the universe of workplace accidents reported in Spain from 2003 to 2015 and follow an IV strategy based on the distribution of early migrants settlements across provinces. Our results show that the massive inflow of immigrants between 2003 and 2009 reduced the number of workplace accidents by 10,980 for native workers (7% of the overall reduction during that period). This is driven by Spanish-born workers shifting away from manual occupations to those involving more interpersonal interactions. Immigrant flows during the economic crisis (2010-2015) had no impact on natives’ workplace safety. The scarcity of jobs during that period could have prevented shifts between occupations. Finally, we find no effects of immigration on the workplace safety of immigrants. These results add a previously unexplored dimension to the immigration debate that should be taken into account when evaluating the costs and benefits of migration flows.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) were jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
The conference was held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar. Full Program.Over 300 participants worldwide.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). Links lead to the videos of the keynote lectures. – June 5, 2020. Daron Acemoglu (MIT): A Multi-risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown Large gains from targeted policy! – June 6, 2020. Charles Manski (Northwestern University): Coping with COVID Uncertainties We must take care when performing!
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
Posted inEvents, News|Comments Off on Report on the ‘Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference’, June 5-7, on COVID-19. With links to videos of the keynote lectures of Acemoglu & Manski.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. It reveals that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its in uence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using Italian data finds that workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks (such as workers employed in service occupations as cashiers or call-center operators) are exposed to a relatively higher risk of becoming unemployed.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011-2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor, 2011) do not display – on average – higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. However, on distinguishing between cognitive and manual tasks, it turns out that workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks (such as workers employed in service occupations as cashiers or call-center operators) are in fact exposed to a relatively higher risk of becoming unemployed. By contrast, a rather lower risk seems to be faced by workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine-manual tasks. Finally, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors – with higher risk in manufacturing and construction – confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities.
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