A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the most affected in Tunisia are craftsmen, machine operators and elementary occupations in non-agricultural activities.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: While the Covid-19 pandemic had both health and economic effects in rich countries, the first wave impacted many developing countries’ mainly through its economic and social consequences. The objective of this paper is to perform a first-round assessment of the potential consequences on workers using the Tunisian labor force survey. Three main factors of vulnerability are investigated, the inability to work from home, being part of a non essential industry and working for the private sector. We find that the most affected are craftsmen, machine operators and elementary occupations in non-agricultural activities. The typically vulnerable worker is a young individual with low education, a man if self-employed and a woman with a temporary contract and lower earnings if wage-earner. When we take into account self-employed workers, the managers’ category becomes the most affected among high and medium skill occupations. When we look at regional effects, we unexpectedly find that the coastal regions (except the capital) are the most fragile. This is due to the fact that most of the manufacturing, tourism and international transport activities are located in coastal regions.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using data on a generous partial retirement reform in Germanysupports the notion of an intrinsic willingness of older individuals to acquire skills and abilities independent of financial incentives.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Adult education can mitigate the productivity decline in aging societies if older workers are willing to learn. We examine a generous partial retirement reform in Germany that led to a massive increase in early retirement. Using county-level administrative data on voluntary education activities, we employ a difference-in-differences approach for identification. The estimates show a strong increase in participation in adult education, specifically in cognitively demanding courses, for early retirees who would have continued working in the absence of the reform. This supports the notion of an intrinsic willingness of older individuals to acquire skills and abilities independent of financial incentives.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the effect of the 2015 refugee crisis on the integrationof existing immigrants in Germany originating from Turkey and Middle- Eastern and North-African countries. They improved economically due to the increased demand for culturally similar goods and services induced by the new but culturally similar refugees, while their assimilation of German identity was unaffected.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We apply difference-in-differences regressions to study the impact of the 2015 refugee crisis in Germany on the culturally closer diaspora of existing immigrants originating from Turkey and Middle- Eastern and North-African countries (TMENA). Our identification allows us to emphasize the role of immigrants’ culture in estimating immigration’s socio-economic impact. Additionally, we distinguish between the labor demand and labor supply effects associated with immigration, which enables us to reflect on the ambiguous labor market impact of immigration suggested in the existing literature. In particular, we find that TMENA immigrants experienced a substantial reduction in unemployment in 2015, consistent with the differential demand shock induced by refugees’ consumption of culturally similar goods and services. However, the unemployment effects dissipated starting in 2016, coinciding with refugees’ delayed yet incremental labor market integration. We also consider the social impact of the refugee crisis and find that while worries about immigration increased among all respondents, the increases were statistically significantly smaller among TMENA immigrants, primarily due to their cultural proximity to arriving refugees. Our results suggest that TMENA immigrants’ assimilation of German identity was unaffected by the refugee crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows that the 2019 Austrian social assistance reform while cutting substantially social assistance benefits for migrants and families with children had only a small effect on total labor supply.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Financial incentives affect the labour supply decisions of households, but typically the impact of such incentives varies significantly across household types. While there is a substantial literature on the labour supply effects of tax reforms and in-work benefits, the impact of changes in social assistance benefits has received less attention. This paper analyses the impact of the Austrian reform proposal ‘Neue Sozialhilfe’ (“New Social Assistance”), which was introduced in 2019 and substantially cut social assistance benefits for migrants and families with children. We show that the labor supply effects of these changes in social assistance differ substantially across household types. While women exhibit higher labor supply elasticities in our estimates, the overall effects of the reform are especially strong for men and migrants. Couples with children and migrants, i.e. the groups which were hit the hardest by the reform’s social assistance reductions, show the strongest labor supply reactions to the ‘New Social Assistance’. Furthermore, we show that overall the reform has a positive, but small, effect on the intensive margin of labor supply.
A new GLO Discussion Paper using a Roy-Rosen model to simulate the effects of the minimum wage for the Brazilian economy. The policy might be desirable if employment losses are concentrated in jobs characterized by low surplus.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We study the effects of labor market policies using a bargaining model featuring compensating differentials (Rosen, 1986) and self-selection (Roy, 1951). The framework allows us to create a taxonomy of formal and informal employment. We use the model to estimate the effects of the minimum wage for the Brazilian economy using the “PNAD” dataset for the years 2001-2005. Our results suggest that, although the minimum wage generates unemployment and reallocation of labor to the informal sector, the policy might be desirable if the employment losses are concentrated in jobs characterized by low surplus.
A new GLO Discussion Paper empirically examines the influence of fintech innovation on bank fragility for 690 banks across 34 Sub Saharan African countries confirming its destabilizing impact.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: There is a momentous debate on the role played by financial technology (fintech) innovation in the fragility of the banking sector. Considering the importance of financial solidness, contradictory theoretical predictions and empirical evidence, the in-depth re-investigation of this relation is needed. Using data of 690 banks across 34 Sub Saharan African countries for the period 1999-2015 along with FGLS, GMM, Panel Threshold regression and PCA econometric method, this paper empirically examines the influence of fintech innovation on bank fragility. Mainly the destabilizing impact of fintech innovation is confirmed for our baseline investigation but later relativized with a stabilizing impact after a certain threshold. Moreover, the results highlight also that the macroeconomic environment is important in explaining bank fragility and suggested that public policy should take into account some specific destabilizing consequences on the banking system. Besides, the simultaneous hypothesis test of the innovation fragility nexus conditional to some relevant variables reveals that financial openness does matter while investment, commercial openness and monetary policy do not. Lastly, the comparative analysis validates our heterogeneity hypothesis; countries with the high size banking sector, colonialized by France and members of monetary union performs better than the others in terms of bank solidness. These results indicate that suitable fintech innovation policy even between the same regions could be rather different. Financial instability appeared also to increase bank fragility. This paper contributes to the limited literature on fintech innovation at both the macro and micro levels in sub-Saharan Africa.
The GLO Discussion Paper of the Month of May studies the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. It reveals that female single headship among African Americans is more likely in association with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns.
Author Abstract: We empirically assess the effect of historical slavery on the African American family structure. Our hypothesis is that female single headship among blacks is more likely to emerge in association not with slavery per se, but with slavery in sugar plantations, since the extreme demographic and social conditions prevailing in the latter have persistently affected family formation patterns. By exploiting the exogenous variation in sugar suitability, we establish the following. In 1850, sugar suitability is indeed associated with extreme demographic outcomes within the slave population. Over the period 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability determines a higher likelihood of single female headship. The effect is driven by blacks and starts fading in 1920 in connection with the Great Migration. OLS estimates are complemented with a matching estimator and a fuzzy RDD. Over a linked sample between 1880 and 1930, we identify an even stronger intergenerational legacy of sugar planting for migrants. By 1990, the effect of sugar is replaced by that of slavery and the black share, consistent with the spread of its influence through migration and intermarriage, and black incarceration emerges as a powerful mediator. By matching slaves’ ethnic origins with ethnographic data we rule out any influence of African cultural traditions.
GLO DP Team Senior
Editors: Matloob Piracha (University of Kent) & GLO; Klaus F.
Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University and Bonn University). Managing Editor: Magdalena Ulceluse, University of Groningen. DP@glabor.org
A new GLO Discussion Paper shows for UK data that the rise of women in the top 1% is primarily accounted for by their greater increases (relative to men) in the number of years spent in full-time education.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The share of women in the top 1% of the UK’s income distribution has been growing over the last two decades (as in several other countries). Our first contribution is to account for this secular change using regressions of the probability of being in the top 1%, fitted separately for men and women, in order to contrast between the sexes the role of changes in characteristics and changes in returns to characteristics. We show that the rise of women in the top 1% is primarily accounted for by their greater increases (relative to men) in the number of years spent in full-time education. Although most top income analysis uses tax return data, we derive our findings taking advantage of the much more extensive information about personal characteristics that is available in survey data. Our use of survey data requires justification given survey under-coverage of top incomes. Providing this justification is our second contribution.
A new GLO Discussion Paper determines the factors that could increase happiness in New Zealand during the pandemic to ensure rapid restoration of levels before the Covid-19 shock. Results show that the country is in an unhappy state which is lasting longer than predicted.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper estimates Markov switching models with daily happiness (GNH) data from New Zealand for a period inclusive of the Covid-19 global health pandemic. This helps us understand the dynamics of happiness due to an external shock and provides valuable information about its future evolution. Furthermore, we determine the probabilities to transition between states of happiness and estimate the duration in these states. In addition, as maximizing happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that increase happiness, especially during the pandemic to ensure rapid restoration of happiness levels post the Covid-19 shock. The results show New Zealand is currently in an unhappy state which is lasting longer than predicted. To increase the happiness levels to pre-pandemic levels, policymakers could allow free mobility, create economic stimuli, and allow international travel between New Zealand and low-risk Covid-19 countries.
A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that in the Greek economic crisis the relative position of households with unemployed members deteriorated sharply, while their contribution to aggregate poverty skyrocketed.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The Greek economic crisis resulted in a decline in household disposable income by more than 40%. Even though all population groups lost income in absolute terms, some were substantially more severely hit by the crisis. The paper examines the effect of the crisis on the population shares, the mean incomes and the level of poverty of various population groups using SILC data for the period 2007-2016. The population is partitioned according to four criteria: socioeconomic group of the household head, presence of unemployed individuals in the household, age of the population member and household type. When “anchored” poverty lines and distribution-sensitive poverty indices are employed the level of poverty rises to incredibly high levels. When the poverty lines used are “relative”, the poverty rate does not change substantially but when distribution-sensitive indices are used the increase in poverty is very substantial. The most interesting results are related to the changes in the structure of poverty. The crisis was associated with a very substantial increase in unemployment. Unemployment protection in Greece was inadequate while there was no “benefit of last resort”. As a result, the relative position of households with unemployed members (and, especially, with unemployed heads) deteriorated sharply, while their contribution to aggregate poverty skyrocketed. Unlike what is often claimed in the Greek public discourse, the relative position of pensioner-headed households improved, although they also experienced a considerable decline in their living standards.
Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here:
Cookie Policy
