A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the successful lockdown in Vietnam kept mortality amazingly low, but had negative effects on unemployment, the temporary layoff rate, and the quality of employment. It also reduced workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Vietnam is widely praised for its successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has had an extremely low mortality rate of 35 deaths to date (out of a population of approximately 100 million) and currently has no community transmission. We offer the first study that examines the effects of the COVID-19-induced lockdown on various employment outcomes for Vietnam. We employ difference-in-differences econometric models to estimate the causal effects of the lockdown, using rich individual-level data from the quarterly Labor Force Surveys. We find that the lockdown increases the unemployment rate, the temporary layoff rate, and decreases the quality of employment. It also reduces workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages. Our estimation results remain robust to different model specifications and estimation samples. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects vary across education levels and occupation sectors but are similar across regions or provinces with different lockdown durations.
Posted inNews, Research|Comments Off on Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment Outcomes in Vietnam.
Reflected by the GLO Website glabor.org, 2020 has been another very active year of the network. This was based on the hard work of our activists on all levels and on the constructive support of our various partners around the globe.
Thanks to all GLO Fellows, Affiliates and partners! And the wider audience in the profession and the society for your interest!
While the coronavirus is a challenge to globalization, global collaboration is also the best response. Hence, we went on and started a number of initiatives for which the world has become more open and more flexible. Our experience is that the willingness to communicate and interact has increased.
Below I present a short overview on GLO’s major achievements in the past year 2020.
Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO – President
Overview: GLO Activities 2020
More than daily News(Please register on the GLO cover page to receive email notifications.)
Volume 34, issue 1, 2021 of the Journal of Population Economics is published. See below the list of articles and access links to read or download the contributions.
A Journal of Population Economics Online Workshop hosted by UNU-MERIT, Maastricht took place on November 19, 2020 (2-5 pm CET). The detailed agenda is below presenting highlights on “Covid-19” and “societal conflict” from the new issue.
Journal of Population Economics: Report Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University)
Michaella Vanore
Klaus F. Zimmermann
2.15 – 2.45 pm CET Maastricht
Lead paper Issue 1/2021: Session Chair Terra McKinnish (Editor; University of Colorado Boulder)
Terra McKinnish, Editor, Journal of Population Economics
“Names and behavior in a war” presented by Štěpán Jurajda (CERGE-EI, Prague) Co-author: Dejan Kovač (Princeton University and Zagreb)
Discussion
Michaella Vanore
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Terra McKinnish
Štěpán Jurajda
Dejan Kovač
2.45 – 3.15 pm CET Maastricht
Kuznets Prize 2021: “Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China”, published in the Journal of Population Economics (2020), 33(4), pp. 1127–1172. OPEN ACCESS.
Bartel Van de Walle (Director, UNU-MERIT) presented UNU-MERIT & delivered the prize laudation.
Panel with the authors chaired by Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University): Yun Qiu (Jinan University), Xi Chen (Yale University), and Wei Shi (Jinan University)
Yun Qiu
From the left: Xi Chen, Wei Shi and Klaus F. Zimmermann
Bartel Van de Walle
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Yun Qiu
Xi Chen
Wei Shi
3.15 – 4.00 pm CET Maastricht
Panel: Publishing in Population Economics Alessandro Cigno (Editor; University of Florence), Shuaizhang Feng (Editor; Jinan University), Oded Galor (Editor; Brown University), Pierre Pestieau (Editor; Université de Liège), Erdal Tekin (Editor; American University), Katharina Wetzel-Vandai (Springer Nature), Junsen Zhang (Editor; Chinese University of Hong Kong), Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University)
The Panel debate was organized to honor the contributions of Sandro Cigno to Population Economics and to the success of the Journal of Population Economics. Cigno celebrated his 80th birthday on December 24, 2020 and retired on December 31, 2020 from his position as Editor of the Journal. MORE DETAILS from the Panel see separate post in his honor.
Sandro Cigno, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Katharina Wetzel-Vandai, Erdal Tekin
Shuaizhang Feng
Oded Galor
Pierre Pestieau
Junsen Zhang
Alessandro Cigno (Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 2020)
Shuaizhang Feng (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2020 – )
Oded Galor (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2019 – ; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Economic Growth)
Pierre Pestieau (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 1995; previously: Co-Editor Journal of Public Economics)
Erdal Tekin (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2010 – 2018; Editor-in-Chief Journal of Policy Analysis and Management)
Junsen Zhang (Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2001 – 2019; Coeditor, Journal of Human Resources)
Klaus F. Zimmermann (Editor-in-Chief; Managing Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – ; previously: Managing Editor, Economic Policy)
4.00 – 5.00 pm CET Maastricht
Madeline Zavodny, Managing Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
Covid-19 in Issue 1/2021: Session Chair Madeline Zavodny (Managing Editor; University of North Florida)
Fabio Milani (University of California, Irvine): “COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies” Discussion
Domenico Depalo (Bank of Italy): “True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data” Discussion
Fabio Milani
Domenico Depalo (
Fabrizio Patriarca (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia): “Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures” Co-authors: Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Giovanni Gallo (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis) Discussion
Sergio Scicchitano (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis): “Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19” Co-authors: Luca Bonacini (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Giovanni Gallo (National Institute for Public Policies Analysis) Discussion
Fabrizio Patriarca
Sergio Scicchitano
Madeline Zavodny
Domenico Depalo
Fabrizio Patriarca
Sergio Scicchitano
Luca Bonacini
Giovanni Gallo
END of the event
Michaella Vanore, Managing Editor of the Journal of Population Economics
Posted inEvents, News|Comments Off on Report & Video available: Journal of Population Economics Webinar on the Kuznets Prize 2021 ceremony & the presentation of the newly published Issue 1, 2021.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway that miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility has similar negative effects for all three children on female earnings in the short-run, while a catch up afterwards shows only for the third child.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children by Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS .
Author Abstract: We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics examined a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia to show that it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program by Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccQWs
Author Abstract: We use data from the Familias en Acción program in Colombia to examine the spillover or indirect effects of a conditional cash transfer program. Our results show that the program has significant spillover effects: it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness. The benefits are stronger for women and the elderly in the short run and for men in the medium run. Our analysis suggests that these spillovers are driven by increased access to information in the household that creates a public good.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics is studyingRussian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA to find high degrees of occupational segregation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Identifying ethnic occupational segregation by Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccPoZ
Author Abstract: Many studies consider occupational segregation among the immigrant population from a given birth country as a whole. This ignores potential ethnic heterogeneity within an immigrant population and may underestimate occupational segregation. We focus on Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA—then a major immigrant population with a high degree of ethnic diversity, including Russian, Jewish, German, and Polish ethnics—and study occupational segregation by ethnicity. We apply a machine learning ethnicity classification approach to 1930 US census data based on name and mother tongue. Using the constructed ethnicity variable, we show high degrees of occupational segregation by ethnicity within the Russian-born immigrant population in the USA. For example, Jews, German ethnics, and Polish ethnics were concentrated in trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, respectively. We also find evidence that Russian-born immigrants’ labor market outcomes were associated with networks measured by the spatial concentration of co-ethnics—particularly more established ones—but not by the concentrations of other ethnic groups.
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics suggests on the basis of a historical model analysis that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Open Access
Author Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.
Posted inNews, Research|Comments Off on Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria – new paper open access in the Journal of Population Economics
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Collaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand affiliate. The two organizations will support each other in their common missions on research and educational issues. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO in Thailand and beyond. GLO Fellow and GLO Country Lead Thailand Ruttiya Bhula-or will head the local activities. The English website with the announcement will be available soon in January 2021.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
TheCollaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University is dedicated to promoting cutting-edge labor researches to facilitate the implementation of policies, and to support the development of labor & socioeconomic data infrastructure and analysis to boost dialogues on labor research toward better wellbeing and decent work in an integrated and sustainable manner. The CU-COLLAR supports cooperation and partnership from a wide range of disciplines and universities with government, private sectors, employers’ representatives, workers’ representatives, international organizations, non-for-profit organizations at national and international levels. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO at Chulalongkorn University, in Thailand and beyond.
Ruttiya Bhula-or is Associate Dean at the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, and GLO Country Lead Thailand. She will act as Head of the local GLO initiatives at CU-COLLAR.
Chulalongkorn University with its Collaborating Centre for Labour Research(CU-COLLAR) has become a supporting organization of GLO.
The article “Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics” by GLO Fellow Victoria Vernon and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is now published.
Throughout history, border walls and fences have been built for defense, to claim land, to signal power, and to control migration. The costs of fortifications are large while the benefits are questionable. The recent trend of building walls and fences signals a paradox: In spite of the anti-immigration rhetoric of policymakers, there is little evidence that walls are effective in reducing terrorism, migration, and smuggling. Economic research suggests large benefits to open border policies in the face of increasing global migration pressures. Less restrictive migration policies should be accompanied by institutional changes aimed at increasing growth, improving security and reducing income inequality in poorer countries.
The Journal of Population Economics and GLO communities recently discussed the rise of Population Economics to a significant and flourishing research field in economics and beyond. In an online event on November 19, 2020 hosted by UNU-MERIT/Maastricht, the meeting presented a panel debate on Publishing in Population Economics.
A number of distinguished editors outlined the evolution in the past, expressed their views about future perspectives and the contributions by Alessandro Cigno serving the Journal of Population Economics as an Editor for over 33 years since the beginning.
Professor Cigno had decided to leave this position at the end of the year 2020 while celebrating his 80th birthday on December 24.
Sandro Cigno was one of the founding editors in 1988 and has had a remarkable impact on the position of the Journal in general and its profile in the theory of family and household economics.
Editorial Board of the Journal of Population Economics in 1988
On the occasion, the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal, Klaus F. Zimmermann, said: “We all will miss Sandro as a strong and independent thinker, a fair and engaged editor, and a reliable and loyal partner over three decades. His friendship and the many inspiring contributions have made the joint mission of creating and establishing the field ofPopulation Economicsan enjoyable and doable task. Impressed by his spirit, fitness and ongoing research engagement, we all wish him at his 80th birthday ongoing good health, fun with his work and last but not least enjoyment with his lovely family.”
Happy birthday, happy holidays, all the best for 2021 and beyond; and thank you very much!
Alessandro Cigno
Università di Firenze; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 2020
Alessandro Cigno
“It is a great pleasure to say a few words on behalf of Sandro Cigno and to express my high esteem of his scientific career and of his personality. I have known Sandro for many years. If we had to date it, I would say our friendship goes back to the early days of the European Society of Population Economics and the Journal of Population Economics. I have great respect for his very long scientific career. This career is marked by excellence and consistency. Sandro offers a fine example of academic longevity. This type of longevity seems to me more common in Europe than in North America. The explanation may lie in the specific incentive structures that prevail in these two continents. My first scientific contact with Sandro was reading his remarkable book “Economics of the Family” published in 1991. One of the first books on the subject, which had a great influence on research in family and population economics. In Sandro’s research, I have mainly been interested in his work at the crossroads of population and public economics. He has published several groundbreaking articles in public economics. I would pinpoint two articles. First, there is the one where he shows the implications that endogenous fertility can have on the design of family policy. “Endogenous fertility and the design of family taxation” (with A. Balestrino and A. Pettini). Then there is the article where he studies social policy in a context of asymmetric information in which many individual characteristics are not observable. “Doing wonders with an egg: optimal redistribution when households differ in market and non- market ability” (with A. Balestrino and A. Pettini). When we started the Journal of Population Economics adventure, theory had an important role. Gradually this role has diminished to almost disappear. This development is not unique to Population Economics; it is no less regrettable. I sometimes have the feeling that, to use Tjalling Koopmans‘ expression, we have entered the era of “measurement without theory”. I am grateful to Sandro for having over the past decades pursued the idea that all empirical work needs to be preceded by sound theory. My hope is that soon we will experience a period with more concern for “measurement with theory”. Finally, a last word on the personality of Sandro. Sandro is a true gentleman, a well-rounded person whom I am happy to count among my friends. He has had an indisputable and lasting influence on our discipline, Population Economics.”
In the Panel Debate in the honor of Sandro Cigno participated the following editors:
Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2020 – ) Oded Galor (Brown University; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2019 – ; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Economic Growth) Pierre Pestieau (Université de Liège; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – 1995; previously: Co-Editor Journal of Public Economics) Erdal Tekin (American University; Editor; Journal of Population Economics, 2010 – 2018; Editor-in-Chief Journal of Policy Analysis and Management) Katharina Wetzel-Vandai (Economics Editor, Springer Nature) Junsen Zhang (Chinese University of Hong Kong; Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 2001 – 2019; Coeditor, Journal of Human Resources) Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT & Maastricht University; Editor-in-Chief, Managing Editor, Journal of Population Economics, 1988 – ; previously: Managing Editor, Economic Policy)
Shuaizhang Feng
Junsen Zhang
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Pierre Pestieau
Oded Galor
Erdal Tekin
Katharina Wetzel-Vandai
Sandro Cigno, in the panel debate on November 19, 2020
Video of the Journal event including the panel discussion on Publishing in Population Economics.
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