TheGLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)
The last seminar was given on October 1, 2020 by Alfonso Flores-Lagunes on The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans. Below find a report, the video of the seminar and the presentation slides.
Announcement/forthcoming seminar: November 5, 2020:London/UKat 1-2 pm Ira Gang, Rutgers University and GLO Topic: To be announced. Registration details will be provided in time.
Report
The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans
GLO Virtual Seminar on October 1, 2020 Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Syracuse University and GLO Presentation slides and video of the seminar.
Study finds significant and relevant long-term effects for volunteers.
Based on a joint paper with Xintong Wang and Carlos A. Flores on “The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis”, forthcoming.
Posted inEvents, News, Research|Comments Off on ‘The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans’. Video from the GLO Virtual Seminar Series with GLO Fellow Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (Syracuse University).
A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economicsdemonstrates how to use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, a hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
True Covid-19 mortality rates from administrative data by Depalo, Domenico
Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for issue 1/2020. Free Readlink – Download PDF GLO Discussion Paper No. 630, 2020
GLO Fellow Domenico Depalo
Author Abstract: In this paper I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from Covid-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information is relevant for the policy maker, to make decisions, and for the public, to adopt appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias I use partial identification to derive these quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values, or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions, but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than before 2020. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from Covid-19 are between 0.1% and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed for long time. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.
LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 4: Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi, Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Journal of Population Economics33, 1127–1172 (2020). OPEN ACCESS Over 21K journal downloads & over 60 Google Scholar cites as of September 10, 2020.
OTHER COVID-19 ARTICLES JUST PUBLISHED ONLINE FIRST.
Fabio Milani: COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: A global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4. PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Fabrizio Patriarca: Identifying policy challenges of COVID-19 in hardly reliable data and judging the success of lockdown measures. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00799-x PDF free accessible.
Luca Bonacini, Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano: Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19. Journal of Population Economics, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00800-7 PDF free accessible.
Posted inNews, Research|Comments Off on How to get true Covid-19 Mortality Rates from Administrative Data? Read an article free access in the Journal of Population Economics.
A new GLO Discussion Paperdevelops and applies a new econometric identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization with problematic findings for the reform.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in- discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans’ health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7.0% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7.2% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that access to finance affects employment growth in small and medium-sized enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In the past decade inclusive growth, that is job-rich growth, has topped the policy agenda in developing countries. This paper investigates how the access to finance affects employment in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. It first presents a model where firm creation requires entrepreneurial search and paying the start-up costs, while the firm’s size in terms of employment depends on the access to credit. Under the financial market imperfections, access to credit can be a binding constraint on firm entry and employment even when the banks have sufficient liquidity. Using an impact evaluation-based approach on firm-level data from 42 African countries, we show that SMEs with access to formal financing create more jobs than firms without access, with employment in firms having access to more affordable and larger loans growing the fastest. The impact of access to finance is stronger for firms in manufacturing than in services, pointing to sectoral targeting of finance as a possible policy supporting industrialization.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows for Turkey that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile, but no such results are obtained for men.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The paper aims to identify the effect of non-standard employment on wages in the Turkish labor market across gender and decompose the gap to understand the role of endowments and returns in generating the earning differences. Our findings show that non-standard employment reduces wages for women at every quantile but no such results are obtained for men. Besides, females with standard jobs in Turkey earn more than men, however, the opposite holds for females in non-standard positions. Also, a big part of the gender pay gap is attributable to returns, especially at the lower end of the distribution. Women in low-paid and atypical jobs face larger pay gaps, and the role of unexplained component suggests they are discriminated. The distinct impact of non-standard employment on men and women suggest that policies geared towards labor market flexibility should take gender perspective into account.
A new GLO Discussion Papercontributes to the rising literature on the impact of natural light on economic behavior. Using Daylight Saving Time as a natural experiment it finds that the increase of light has reduced crime in Montevideo strongly.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Emiliano Tealde
Author Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between ambient light and criminal activity. A Becker-style crime model is developed where it is shown that in areas with less public lighting a sudden increase in ambient light produces a higher reduction in crime. The Daylight Saving Time, the natural experiment used, induces a sharp increase in natural light during crime-intense hours. Using geolocated data on crime and public lighting for the city of Montevideo in Uruguay, regression discontinuity estimates identify a strong and statistically significant decrease in robbery of 17-percent. The decrease is larger in poorly lit areas. Computing the level of public lighting at which DST has no effect on crime reduction, we identify the minimum level of public lighting that an area should target.
A new GLO Discussion Paperstudies the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. New requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in Denmark led to limited employment effects among males but not for females.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Accepted for publication in the Journal of Population Economics.
GLO Fellow Jacob Arendt
Author Abstract: This study estimates the labor market effects of a work-first policy that aimed at speeding up the labor market integration of refugees. The policy added new requirements for refugees to actively search for jobs and to participate in on-the-job training immediately upon arrival in the host country. The requirements were added to an existing policy that emphasizes human capital investments in language training. The results show that the work-first policy speeded up the entry into regular jobs for males, but that they find work in precarious jobs with few hours. The long-run effects are uncertain since the policy crowds out language investments but raises enrollment in education. The policy had no or very small effects for women, which is partly explained by a lower treatment intensity for women.
A new GLO Discussion Papershows that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We show that the descendants of ancient farmers may have an interest in marrying among themselves, and thus maintaining the gendered division of labor, originally justified on comparative-advantage grounds by the advent of the plough, even after they emigrate to a modern industrial economy where individual productivity depends on education rather than physical characteristics. The result rests on the argument that, if efficiency requires the more productive spouse to specialize in raising income, and the less productive one in raising children, irrespective of gender, an efficient domestic equilibrium will be implemented by a costlessly enforceable pre-marital contract stipulating that the husband should do the former and the wife the latter. A contract may not be needed, however, if time spent with children gives direct utility, because an efficient equilibrium may then be characterized by little or no division of labor.
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A new GLO Discussion Paperfinds for Sweden a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using data from rural Bangladesh. It further investigates how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
GLO Discussion Paper No. 658, 2020; forthcoming 2021 in the Journal of Population Economics.
Author Abstract: We elicit adolescent girls’ attitudes towards intimate partner violence and child marriage using purposefully collected data from rural Bangladesh. Alongside direct survey questions, we conduct list experiments to elicit true preferences for intimate partner violence and marriage before age eighteen. Responses to direct survey questions suggest that very few adolescent girls in the study accept the practises of intimate partner violence and child marriage (5% and 2%). However, our list experiments reveal significantly higher support for both intimate partner violence and child marriage (at 30% and 24%). We further investigate how numerous variables relate to preferences for egalitarian gender norms in rural Bangladesh.
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