Klaus F. Zimmermann

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the successful lockdown in Vietnam kept mortality amazingly low, but had negative effects on unemployment, the temporary layoff rate, and the quality of employment. It also reduced workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 741, 2020

Did a Successful Fight against the COVID-19 pandemic Come at a Cost? Impacts of the Outbreak on Employment outcomes in Vietnam – Download PDF
by Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen, Cuong Viet

GLO Fellows Hai-Anh Dang & Cuong Nguyen

Author Abstract: Vietnam is widely praised for its successful fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The country has had an extremely low mortality rate of 35 deaths to date (out of a population of approximately 100 million) and currently has no community transmission. We offer the first study that examines the effects of the COVID-19-induced lockdown on various employment outcomes for Vietnam. We employ difference-in-differences econometric models to estimate the causal effects of the lockdown, using rich individual-level data from the quarterly Labor Force Surveys. We find that the lockdown increases the unemployment rate, the temporary layoff rate, and decreases the quality of employment. It also reduces workers’ numbers of working hours and their monthly incomes and wages. Our estimation results remain robust to different model specifications and estimation samples. Further heterogeneity analysis suggests that the effects vary across education levels and occupation sectors but are similar across regions or provinces with different lockdown durations.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds for Norway that miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility has similar negative effects for all three children on female earnings in the short-run, while a catch up afterwards shows only for the third child.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Children and labor market outcomes: separating the effects of the first three children
by Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm
Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS .

Author Abstract: We use miscarriage as a biological shock to fertility to estimate the effect of the first three children on women’s and men’s labor market outcomes. For women, we find that the effect is almost the same for the first, second and third child in the short run. The reduction in female earnings in the three first years after birth is on average 28 percent for the first child, 29 percent for the second child and 22 percent for the third child. The reduction is caused by drops in labor supply at the intensive margin and the extensive margin, concentrated among women in the middle part of the income distribution. There is considerable catching up after five years, but effects of the first two children persist ten years later, although they are imprecisely estimated. For men, we find evidence of increased labor supply and earnings after the first two children. We also find indications that having the first child increases take-up of health-related welfare benefits, such as disability insurance, for women, and that having a second and/or a third child increases couple stability.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war — READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics examined a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia to show that it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Health spillover effects of a conditional cash transfer program
by Diana Contreras Suarez & Pushkar Maitra

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021.
Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccQWs

GLO Fellow Diana Contreras Suarez

Author Abstract: We use data from the Familias en Acción program in Colombia to examine the spillover or indirect effects of a conditional cash transfer program. Our results show that the program has significant spillover effects: it leads to an improvement in the health of non-targeted individuals in treatment households in terms of both incidence and severity of illness. The benefits are stronger for women and the elderly in the short run and for men in the medium run. Our analysis suggests that these spillovers are driven by increased access to information in the household that creates a public good.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war — READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics is studying Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA to find high degrees of occupational segregation.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Identifying ethnic occupational segregation
by Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Published ONLINE 2020: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Free Readlink: https://rdcu.be/ccPoZ

GLO Fellows Dafeng Xu & Yuxin Zhang

Author Abstract: Many studies consider occupational segregation among the immigrant population from a given birth country as a whole. This ignores potential ethnic heterogeneity within an immigrant population and may underestimate occupational segregation. We focus on Russian immigrants in the early twentieth century USA—then a major immigrant population with a high degree of ethnic diversity, including Russian, Jewish, German, and Polish ethnics—and study occupational segregation by ethnicity. We apply a machine learning ethnicity classification approach to 1930 US census data based on name and mother tongue. Using the constructed ethnicity variable, we show high degrees of occupational segregation by ethnicity within the Russian-born immigrant population in the USA. For example, Jews, German ethnics, and Polish ethnics were concentrated in trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, respectively. We also find evidence that Russian-born immigrants’ labor market outcomes were associated with networks measured by the spatial concentration of co-ethnics—particularly more established ones—but not by the concentrations of other ethnic groups.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war — READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics suggests on the basis of a historical model analysis that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria
by James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou

Published ONLINE: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. Open Access

Author Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war — READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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The Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the Collaborating Centre for Labour Research (CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand affiliate. The two organizations will support each other in their common missions on research and educational issues. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO in Thailand and beyond. GLO Fellow and GLO Country Lead Thailand Ruttiya Bhula-or will head the local activities. The English website with the announcement will be available soon in January 2021.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

The Collaborating Centre for Labour Research (CU-COLLAR) at Chulalongkorn University is dedicated to promoting cutting-edge labor researches to facilitate the implementation of policies, and to support the development of labor & socioeconomic data infrastructure and analysis to boost dialogues on labor research toward better wellbeing and decent work in an integrated and sustainable manner. The CU-COLLAR supports cooperation and partnership from a wide range of disciplines and universities with government, private sectors, employers’ representatives, workers’ representatives, international organizations, non-for-profit organizations at national and international levels. CU-COLLAR will provide the local platform of GLO at Chulalongkorn University, in Thailand and beyond.

Ruttiya Bhula-or is Associate Dean at the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, and GLO Country Lead Thailand. She will act as Head of the local GLO initiatives at CU-COLLAR.

Chulalongkorn University with its Collaborating Centre for Labour Research (CU-COLLAR) has become a supporting organization of GLO.

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