Klaus F. Zimmermann

A new GLO Discussion Paper simulates an increase of public spending in health care and social assistance in the Chinese economy and examines the effects on seven regions of the world economy: China, Japan, the United States, the European Union, Latin America, Asia‐Pacific and the Rest of the World.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 447, 2020

Spending in social services in China: A multi-country analysis – Download PDF
by Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Gómez‐Plana, Antonio G.

GLO Fellow Oscar Bajo-Rubio

Author Abstract: In this paper, we simulate the effects of an increase in the levels of public spending in health care and social assistance in the Chinese economy, and examine its global effects, i.e., the effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy, namely, China, Japan, United States, European Union, Latin America, Asia‐Pacific and Rest of the World. Three different rules to finance the increase in public expenditure are considered. The empirical methodology makes use of a computable general equilibrium model, through an extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project model. The policy measure simulated led to either expansionary or contractionary effects on China’s activity levels, depending on whether the government deficit is left to increase, or if taxes are raised instead in order to offset it. While no sector seemed to be particularly hurt by this measure, trade flows were negatively affected, but this did not seem to have a strong influence on the rest of the world.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper provides a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration; it reveals the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlines the importance of non-economic reasons for return.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 446, 2020

Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence – Download PDF
by Constant, Amelie F.

GLO Fellow Amelie Constant

Author Abstract: This chapter undertook the monumental task of providing a complete outlook about return, repeat, circular and onward migration by bringing together the perspectives of the host and the home country. In this endeavor, it reviewed and evaluated all theories about why people move, when they circulate, where they go, who are the people who migrate, who are the people who return, and how they change the economic and social structures in the home country. In the process, it revealed the new norm of joint decision-making by the family as a unit and underlined the importance of non-economic reasons for return. The chapter further provided a state-of-the-art literature review about empirical evidence regarding the disparate phenomena of return, circular and onward migration. It emphasized commonalities and compared differences in findings, while connecting them to the theories, policies and institutions. Return, repeat, and circular migrants are self-selected and extremely heterogeneous people and cannot conform under one theory or empirical study. Their de facto migration comportment can be understood by several different theories and, in the absence of good data, it can be explained by a variety of studies. The chapter ends with a critical conclusion and hope to inspire new avenues of research on the topic.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals that Russia has similar migration flows than the US and the EU, but they imply rather divergence than convergence across regions.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 445, 2020

It’s the way people move! Labour migration as an adjustment device in Russia – Download PDF
by Pastore, Francesco & Semerikova, Elena

GLO Fellow Francesco Pastore

Author Abstract: This paper aims to assess the role of migration as an adjustment mechanism device to favor convergence across states and regions of Russia. In contrast to previous studies, we use variations in the population of a region as a proxy of its net migration rate and apply spatial econometric methodology in order to distinguish the effect from the neighbouring regions. We provide descriptive statistical evidence showing that Russia has more/less/the same intense migration flows than the USA and EU. The econometric analysis shows that migration flows are sensitive to both regional income and regional unemployment differentials. Nonetheless, we find that internal migration is sensitive to regional unemployment and income differentials of neighbouring regions. Dependent on the welfare, pre- or after-crisis period, income in neighbouring regions can create out- or in-migration flows. The relatively high degree of internal mobility coupled with the low sensitivity of migration flows to the local unemployment rate of distant regions might explain why migration flows tends not to generate convergence, but rather divergence across Russian regions.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper reveals a significant dependence of current financial institutions in Africa on the legal origin and the colonization type.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 444, 2020

Legal History, Institutions and Banking System Development in Africa – Download PDF
by Mutarindwa, Samuel & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas

GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer

Author Abstract: This paper links banking systems development to the colonial and legal history of African countries. Specifically, we investigate the impact of differing legal traditions on the development of existing investor and creditor protection, and on African banking systems. Based on a sample of 40 African countries from 2000 to 2016, our empirical findings show a significant dependence of current financial institutions on the legal origin and the colonization type. Findings also reveal that current legal financial institutions are not the major determinants of banking system development, whereas institutional and regulatory quality significantly matter for banking system development in both common and civil law countries. Strong creditor rights reduce the cost of banking in African countries.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper presents evidence that reshoring in the age of automation is positively associated with wages and employment for high-skilled labor but not for low-skilled labor.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 443, 2020

Robots, Reshoring, and the Lot of Low-Skilled Workers – Download PDF
by Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger

GLO Fellow Klaus Prettner

Author Abstract: We propose a theoretical framework to analyze the offshoring and reshoring decisions of firms in the age of automation. Our theory suggests that increasing productivity in automation leads to a relocation of previously offshored production back to the home economy but without improving low-skilled wages and without creating jobs for low-skilled workers. Since it leads also to increasing wages for high-skilled workers, automation-induced reshoring is associated with an increasing skill premium and increasing inequality. We develop a measure for reshoring activity at the macro-level and, using data from the world input output table, we provide evidence for automation-driven reshoring. On average, within manufacturing sectors, an increase by one robot per 1000 workers is associated with a 3.5% increase of reshoring activity. Using robots in countries with similar sectoral structure as an instrument, we find that an increase by one robot per 1000 workers causes a 2.5% increase of reshoring activity. We also provide the first cross-country evidence that reshoring is positively associated with wages and employment for high-skilled labor but not for low-skilled labor and that tariffs increase the degree of reshoring.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the demand-pull effect on firms’ growth is heterogeneous across different types of demand sources and that success depends on firms’ specific knowledge profiles.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 442, 2020

Competitive strategies, heterogeneous demand sources and firms’ growth trajectories – Download PDF
by Caravella, Serenella & Crespi, Francesco & Guarascio, Dario & Tubiana, Matteo

GLO Fellow Dario Guarascio

Author Abstract: The present paper explores the demand-pull effect of distinct demand sources (i.e. households and retailers, other firms and public sector) on Italian companies’ growth patterns. Data relies on the PEC (Indagine sulle Professioni e le Competenze) survey carried out by the Institute for Public Policy Analysis (INAPP), which provides a rich set of information on a representative sample of Italian companies (~32.000) observed during the years 2012, 2014 and 2017. In particular, we investigate if and to what extent firm-level growth profiles are linked to the prevalent source of the demand flows that such firms face. The analysis contextually accounts for the role played by technological and knowledge-related heterogeneities in shaping the growth pattern-demand type relationship. The empirical analysis shows that the demand-pull effect on firms’ growth is heterogeneous across different types of demand sources and that the ability to seize the growth-related chances provided by distinct demand conditions is contingent on firms’ specific knowledge profiles.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper investigates the evolution of livelihood diversification in Egypt with a particular focus on wealth and urban-rural divides.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 441, 2020

Livelihood Diversification Strategies: Resisting Vulnerability in Egypt – Download PDF
by Helmy, Imane

GLO Fellow Imane Helmy

Author Abstract: Livelihood diversification is attracting considerable interest as a tool to cope with economic shocks and resist vulnerability. This paper investigates the evolution of livelihood diversification in Egypt with a particular focus on wealth and urban-rural divides. Using Egypt Labor Market Panel data from 2006 to 2018, I find that rural households have a more diversified livelihood portfolio, yet they diversified away from farming over time. Poor rural households remained dependent on informal livelihood strategies due to the high entry barriers to formal employment. Urban households had significantly less livelihood diversification than rural households. Wealthy households in urban areas tended to depend on relatively more specialized livelihood clusters which were stable over time. These findings imply that distress is a potential reason for diversification in urban areas.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that benefits do not necessarily reach the poor and vulnerable households at the regional level.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 440, 2020

Social Safety Nets in Tunisia: Do Benefits Reach the Poor and Vulnerable Households at the Regional Level? – Download PDF
by Nasri, Khaled

GLO Fellow Khaled Nasri

Author Abstract: Tunisian social programs provide direct transfers and free or reduced rate access to public health care for families selected by local and regional commissions. In some areas, poor and vulnerable families are excluded from these programs whose places are occupied by other households. The center is often ill-informed about the performance of different regions in reaching the poor and about the exclusion and inclusion errors sources. This lack of information can severely limit the options for designing reforms that will improve targeting performance. In a nutshell : Two components of social safety nets in Tunisia: one covers more, and the other is more generous. The regional commissions often select households headed by women widowed and elderly as beneficiaries. At the regional level, some beneficiaries are not eligible, and the eligible are not beneficiaries. The inclusion of the non-poor and the exclusion of the poor at the regional level are due to disagreement between eligibility criteria and a person’s poverty status.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper presents cross-country evidence that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 439, 2020

Agricultural credits and agricultural productivity: Cross-country evidence – Download PDF
by Seven, Unal & Tumen, Semih

GLO Fellow Semih Tumen

Author Abstract: We present cross-country evidence suggesting that agricultural credits have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. In particular, we find that doubling agricultural credits generates around 4-5 percent increase in agricultural productivity. We use two different agricultural production measures: (i) the agricultural component of GDP and (ii) agricultural labor productivity. Employing a combination of panel-data and instrumental- variable methods, we show that agricultural credits operate mostly on the agricultural component of GDP in developing countries and agricultural labor productivity in developed countries. This suggests that the nature of the relationship between agricultural finance and agricultural output changes along the development path. We conjecture that development of the agricultural finance system generates entry into the agricultural labor market, which pushes up the agricultural component of GDP and keeps down agricultural labor productivity in developing countries; while, in developed countries, it leads to labor-augmenting increase in agricultural production. We argue that replacement of the informal credit channel with formal and advanced agricultural credit markets along the development path is the main force driving the labor market response.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that smartphone use reduces student success.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 438, 2019

Smartphone Use and Academic Performance: First Evidence from Longitudinal Data – Download PDF
by Amez, Simon & Vujić, Sunčica & De Marez, Lieven & Baert, Stijn

GLO Fellows Suncica Vujic & Stijn Baert

Author Abstract: To study the causal impact of smartphone use on academic performance, we collected—for the first time worldwide—longitudinal data on students’ smartphone use and educational performance. For three consecutive years we surveyed all students attending classes in eleven different study programs at two Belgian universities on general smartphone use and other drivers of academic achievement. These survey data were merged with the exam scores of these students. We analyzed the resulting data by means of panel data random effects estimation controlling for unobserved individual characteristics. A one standard deviation increase in overall smartphone use results in a decrease of 0.349 points (out of 20) and a decrease of 2.616 percentage points in the fraction of exams passed.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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