Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities.

A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics finds that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.

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Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities

Jakub Lonsky Download PDF View Article

This is GLO Discussion Paper No. 540, 2020.

OPEN ACCESS – Published Online. Forthcoming in print version: Journal of Population Economics (2021), volume 34.

Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in a municipality decreases the Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for the welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

Access to the just published complete Volume 33, Issue 4, October 2020.


Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, Wei Shi

Pages 1127-1172 Download PDF View Article


Newly available:
IMPACT FACTOR 1.840 (2019) from 1.253 (2018)
5-YEAR IF 2.353 (2019) from 2.072 (2018)


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