Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.: New paper published OPEN ACCESS freely available ONLINE FIRST in the Journal of Population Economics by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow.

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics finds that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Timing of social distancing policies and COVID-19 mortality: county-level evidence from the U.S.
by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Neeraj Kaushal & Ashley N. Muchow

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics, scheduled for 2021. OPEN ACCESS free available.

GLO Fellows Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes and Neeraj Kaushal

Author Abstract: Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), we examine how the speed of NPI adoption affected COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Our estimates suggest that adopting safer-at-home orders or non-essential business closures 1 day before infections double can curtail the COVID-19 death rate by 1.9%. This finding proves robust to alternative measures of NPI adoption speed, model specifications that control for testing, other NPIs, and mobility and across various samples (national, the Northeast, excluding New York, and excluding the Northeast). We also find that the adoption speed of NPIs is associated with lower infections and is unrelated to non-COVID deaths, suggesting these measures slowed contagion. Finally, NPI adoption speed appears to have been less effective in Republican counties, suggesting that political ideology might have compromised their efficacy.

Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2021.

LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 1, 2021:
Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač: Names and behavior in a war READLINK: https://rdcu.be/b9xkX

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On Synthetic Income Panels.

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides methodological advances to develop synthetic panels based on matching individuals with the same time-invariant characteristics in consecutive cross-sections to improve the potentials for analysis.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 809, 2021

On Synthetic Income Panels Download PDF
by
Moreno, Héctor & Bourguignon, François & Dang, Hai-Anh

GLO Fellows François Bourguignon and Hai-Anh Dang

Author Abstract: In many developing countries, the increasing public interest in monitoring economic inequality and mobility is hindered by the scarce availability of longitudinal data. Synthetic panels based on matching individuals with the same time-invariant characteristics in consecutive cross-sections have been recently proposed as a substitute to such data. We extend the methodology to construct such synthetic panels in several directions by: a) explicitly assuming the unobserved or time variant determinants of (log) income are AR(1) and relying on pseudo-panel procedures to estimate the corresponding auto-regressive coefficient; b) abstracting from (log) normality assumptions; c) generating a close to perfect match of the terminal year income distribution and d) considering the whole income mobility matrix rather than mobility in and out of poverty. We exploit the cross-sectional dimension of a national-representative Mexican panel survey to evaluate the validity of this approach. With the median estimate of the AR coefficient, the income mobility matrix in the synthetic panel closely approximates that of the genuine matrix observed in the actual panel, except for out-lying values of the AR coefficient.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Personal Characteristics and Intention for Entrepreneurship.

A new GLO Discussion Paper identifies the characteristics of senior university students in Turkey to understand and enhance entrepreneurship potential.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Gokhan Karabulut

GLO Discussion Paper No. 808, 2021

Personal Characteristics and Intention for Entrepreneurship Download PDF
by
Yalcintas, Murat & Iyigun, Oykü & Karabulut, Gokhan

GLO Fellow Gokhan Karabulut

Author Abstract: This study analyzes the relationship between entrepreneurship intention and personal characteristics and skills by using the surveys we conducted in Turkey on 1465 senior university students. We use a modified version of the Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) scale and the Political Skills Inventory to measure some personal characteristics and skills. We also use the nine sub-dimensions of these two scales. Probit model and wavelet coherence analysis results show that proactivity, entrepreneurship, and networking sub-dimensions of the scales are related to entrepreneurship intention. We also find that gender, the number of siblings, the grade point average (GPA) of the students, their family’s education level, the parent’ ownership of an enterprise, and the number of non-governmental organizations (NGO) that they are a member of are also related to entrepreneurship intention. Results may be useful to understand and enhance entrepreneurship potential.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Is Gender Destiny? Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in India.

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for India gender equality in absolute intergenerational educational mobility for children of urban college educated fathers, but not in rural areas.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Hanchen Jiang

GLO Discussion Paper No. 807, 2021

Is Gender Destiny? Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in India Download PDF
by
Emran, M. Shahe & Jiang, Hanchen & Shilpi, Forhad

GLO Affiliate Hanchen Jiang

Author Abstract: We develop a model of intergenerational educational mobility incorporating gender bias against girls in the family, school, and labor market. Mobility and investment equations from the model are estimated for India using data not truncated by coresidency. The standard linear model misses important heterogeneity and yields misleading conclusions. Daughters of uneducated fathers face lower relative and absolute mobility (rural and urban). We find gender equality in absolute mobility for children of urban college educated fathers, but not in rural areas. Theoretical insights help understand the mechanisms. Parental nonfinancial inputs, unwanted girls, and patrilineal states are important for explaining the findings.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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GLO Virtual Seminars: Report & Video of Event with Nicole Simpson on ‘Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives?’

The GLO Virtual Seminar is a monthly internal GLO research event chaired by GLO Director Matloob Piracha and hosted by the GLO partner institution University of Kent. The results are available on the GLO website and the GLO News section, where also the video of the presentation is posted. All GLO related videos are also available in the GLO YouTube channel. (To subscribe go there.)


The last seminar was given on April 8, 2021, London/UK at 1-2 pm, by Nicole Simpson, Colgate University and GLO, on Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives? See below a report, a link to the presentation slides and the full video of the seminar.

Report

Single Mothers and Tax Credits: Insurance Without Disincentives?

GLO Virtual Seminar on April 8, 2021

Nicole Simpson, Colgate University and GLO

Video of Seminar. Presentation slides.

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Labour supply and informal care responses to health shocks within couples.

A new GLO Discussion Paper uses UK longitudinal data to investigate within households both the labour supply and informal care responses of an individual to the event of an acute health shock to their partner to find no evidence of a health-related ‘added worker effect’ .

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Andrew Jones

GLO Discussion Paper No. 806, 2021

Labour supply and informal care responses to health shocks within couples: evidence from the UKHLSDownload PDF
by
Macchioni Giaquinto, Annarita & Jones, Andrew M. & Rice, Nigel & Zantomio, Francesca

GLO Fellow Andrew Jones

Author Abstract: Shocks to health have been shown to reduce labour supply for the individual affected. Less is known about household self-insurance through a partner’s response to a health shock. Previous studies have presented inconclusive empirical evidence on the existence of a healthrelated ‘added worker effect’. We use UK longitudinal data to investigate within households both the labour supply and informal care responses of an individual to the event of an acute health shock to their partner. Relying on the unanticipated timing of shocks, we combine coarsened exact matching and entropy balancing algorithms with parametric analysis and exploit lagged outcomes to remove bias from observed confounders and time-invariant unobservables. We find no evidence of a health-related ‘added worker effect’. A significant and sizeable increase in spousal informal care, irrespective of spousal labour market position or household financial status and ability to purchase formal care provision, suggests a substitution to informal care provision, at the expense of time devoted to leisure activities.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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New Website of the Databank of the Center for Economic and Regional Studies – Hungarian Academy of Sciences, a partner organization of the GLO.

Since 2019 the Databank of the Center for Economic and Regional Studies (CERS) – Hungarian Academy of Sciences is a strategic partner of GLO. The data service has been improved by the availability of a new website. Those interested working with rich Hungarian data sources should explore the possibilities on the web. Köllő János, Head of the Databank, is a GLO Fellow and the GLO Country Lead Hungary.

János Köllő (right) with the GLO President 2019 in the building

The Databank (i) collects, cleans, and harmonizes the most important Hungarian repeated cross-section surveys (ii) builds big LEED panels based on administrative data, which cover up to 5 million people followed on a monthly basis. Data on labor market and school careers, employer characteristics and state of health are available. (iii) Operates a Data Room. Researchers can work with full population and firm censuses, product-level trade data, and a register of inter-firm payments, among others. The data can be linked. Results should go through an output checking procedure. (iv) A laboratory is open for experiments. All the data and facilities are available for joint research with the employees of CERS, and many of them are unconditionally open for the international research community.

LINK to the website: https://adatbank.krtk.mta.hu/en/

KRTK-Adatbank

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GLO and Includovate join forces

Kanika Joshi, Head of Partnerships and Communications, Chicago/USA, of Includovate, and Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President, recently met to discuss perspectives of collaboration between both organizations with strongly overlapping objectives. Includovate joins the set of institutional supporters of GLO; GLO does the same for Includovate. Elena Nikolova, Mauritius, Includovate‘s Quantitative Research Director, is a long-term GLO Fellow and contributor to various GLO research activities.

Includovate is a research incubator that designs solutions for inequality and exclusion among other areas. Includovate was established in 2019 to address an identified gap in the market: namely the development of participatory and innovative methodologies to understand the root causes of social exclusion and to develop change processes to support organizations, sectors and communities to tackle these challenges. Includovate relies on an extensive pool of talented experts – anthropologists, human geographers, sociologists, economists, evaluators, health specialists, and gender and inclusion researchers delivering robust research, conducting evaluations and building capacity for gender equality and social inclusion research and practice. Includovate is 100% female owned and headquartered in Ethiopia and Australia.

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The COVID-19 Pandemic’s Effects on Voter Turnout in Italy

A new GLO Discussion Paper assesses whether the voter turnout in the 2020 local government elections in Italy was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It indeed finds that higher elderly mortality rates induced a decline in voter turnout.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Matteo Picchio

GLO Discussion Paper No. 812, 2021

The COVID-19 Pandemic’s Effects on Voter Turnout Download PDF
by
Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella

GLO Fellow Matteo Picchio

Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of participating in public events, among them elections. We assess whether the voter turnout in the 2020 local government elections in Italy was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We do so by exploiting the variation among municipalities in the intensity of the COVID-19 outbreak as measured by the mortality rate among the elderly. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the elderly mortality rate decreased the voter turnout by 0.5 percentage points, with no gender differences in the behavioural response. The effect was especially strong in densely populated municipalities. We do not detect statistically significant heterogeneous effects between the North and the South or among different levels of autonomy from the central government.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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COVID-19, Race, and Gender in the USA

A new GLO Discussion Paper using data for the Cook County in the USA establishes that Black individuals are affected earlier and more harshly by the disease and that the effect is driven by Black women. The Black female bias is associated with poverty and channeled by occupational segregation in the health care and transportation sectors and by commuting on public transport.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 811, 2021

COVID-19, Race, and Gender Download PDF
by
Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo

GLO Fellows Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico

Author Abstract: The mounting evidence on the demographics of COVID-19 fatalities points to an overrepresentation of minorities and an underrepresentation of women. Using individual-level, race-disaggregated, and georeferenced death data collected by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we jointly investigate the racial and gendered impact of COVID-19, its timing, and its determinants. Through an event study approach we establish that Black individuals are affected earlier and more harshly and that the effect is driven by Black women. Rather than comorbidity or aging, the Black female bias is associated with poverty and channeled by occupational segregation in the health care and transportation sectors and by commuting on public transport. Living arrangements and lack of health insurance are instead found not influential. The Black female bias is spatially concentrated in neighborhoods that were subject to historical redlining.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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