How Twitter Tweets Relate to Stock Market Movements in Developed and Emerging Markets

Posted on April 2, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that investor sentiments and emotions derived from stock market-related Twitter tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements in developed and emerging markets.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 502, 2020

Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets – Download PDF
by Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M.

GLO Fellow Talita Greyling

Author Abstract: This paper investigates the predictability of stock market movements using text data extracted from the social media platform, Twitter. We analyze text data to determine the sentiment and the emotion embedded in the tweets and use them as explanatory variables to predict stock market movements. The study contributes to the literature by analyzing high-frequency data and comparing the results obtained from analyzing emerging and developed markets, respectively. To this end, the study uses three different Machine Learning Classification Algorithms, the Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors and the Support Vector Machine algorithm. Furthermore, we use several evaluation metrics such as the Precision, Recall, Specificity and the F-1 score to test and compare the performance of these algorithms. Lastly, we use the K-Fold Cross-Validation technique to validate the results of our machine learning models and the Variable Importance Analysis to show which variables play an important role in the prediction of our models. The predictability of the market movements is estimated by first including sentiment only and then sentiment with emotions. Our results indicate that investor sentiment and emotions derived from stock market-related Tweets are significant predictors of stock market movements, not only in developed markets but also in emerging markets.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Global Insights – eine Meinung: Coronavirus und das Elend des “Lockdowns”.

Posted on April 2, 2020 by admin

Wie die Prognostiker in der Finanzmarktkrise können heute die Virologen noch nicht viel über das neue Virus wissen. Deshalb ist nicht überraschend, daß nach einer Periode des Zögerns der Herdeneffekt des Handelns einsetzt. Sobald der/die Erste losrennt, weil sie/er glaubt, etwas zu wissen, finden sich andere, die folgen. Das verstehen alle als Wissen und rennen hinterher. Wir haben ja nicht viel dazugelernt. Deshalb bleiben bereits heute alle zuhause; und alle tragen morgen Gesichtsmasken.

Gerade wer die Gefahr sehr Ernst nimmt, muß sorgfältig abwägen. Warum gab es keinen frühzeitig organisierten internationalen Erfahrungsaustausch über die Ansteckungsprozesse, Erhebung von Individualdaten im laufenden Prozeß und flächendeckende Surveys mit Tests zur Verfolgung des Ausmaßes der Ansteckung? So ist die Datenlage für Regierungshandeln außerordentlich dünn, sie wäre noch dünner, gäbe es nicht die Johns Hopkins University. Die psychischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen der inzwischen vollzogenen globalen “Lockdowns” sind dramatisch; es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, daß sie die direkten Kosten des Virus bei weitem überschreiten. Langfristig wird es immer wahrscheinlicher, daß das Virus die bereits erfolgte Einschränkung der Globalisierung mit den negativen Konsequenzen für die Weltwohlfahrt dauerhaft verstärkt.

Nun ist der Fehler gemacht und wir müssen zunächst sehen, was aus den jetzigen “Lockdowns” gelernt werden kann. Natürlich müssen die medizinischen Kapazitäten unbedingt massiv hochgefahren werden. Aus den Erfahrungen alternativer Strategien wie in Südkorea und Schweden sind Schlüsse zu ziehen. Entscheidend ist aber zu verstehen, wie unter der zunächst weiteren Abwesenheit eines Impfstoffes wirtschaftliche Produktion mit der Identifizierung und Sicherung der Problemgruppen und ihrer Betreuer raschmöglichst kombiniert werden kann. Zu registrieren, wer die Virusinfektion erfolgreich hinter sich hat und welche Jobs bei grundlegenden Verhaltensregeln relativ ansteckungsungefährlich sind, kommt entscheidende Bedeutung zu. Das Virus wird uns so schnell nicht verlassen. (KFZ)

Klaus F. Zimmermann, Wirtschaftsprofessor und Präsident der Global Labor Organization (GLO), äußert hier seine Meinung.

Referenzen
1. Debattenbeiträge aus dem GLO Netzwerk.
2. Gespräch mit Xi Chen von der Yale University über den Erfolg des chinesischen Lockdowns.
3. Gespräch mit Robert Sauer, Royal Halloway, University of London, über seine Forderung nach dem sofortigen Ausstieg aus den globalen Lockdowns.
4. Gespräch mit Erik Lindqvist, Stockholm University, über die schwedische Coronavirus-Strategie. Medienreferenz.
5. Gespräch von Markus Lanz mit dem Virologen der Universität Bonn, Hendrik Streeck. ZDF-Sendung. Medienreferenz.

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The lockdown strategy on the Coronavirus has negative consequences for emotions and wellbeing of South Africans.

Posted on April 1, 2020 by admin

“COVID-19 Lockdown plays havoc with emotions and our “Happiness Index” stays under pressure“, GLO Fellows Talita Greyling and Stephanié Rossouw find in a new study. The lockdown strategy shows immediate negative consequences for wellbeing in South Africa. The Gross National Happiness data set used (a real-time Happiness Index) is an ongoing project, the two researchers launched in April 2019 in South- Africa, New-Zealand and Australia. See the detailed analysis below.

The authors

Talita Greyling: School of Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, and GLO; email: talitag@uj.ac.za
Stephanié Rossouw: Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand, and GLO; email: stephanie.rossouw@aut.ac.nz

  • Stephnie Rossouw
  • Talita Greyling

The analysis

South Africans are “angry” after their first weekend under lockdown. COVID-19 has been playing havoc with South African’s emotions over the last month.  We have made 180 degrees turn in our emotional state; from being joyful, anticipating good things to happen and showing trust, to being angry, anticipating the worst and showing disgust and fear.  Over the period, the most significant gainers, among the emotions, were anger, up with almost 10%, followed by disgust (+8%) (see figure 1, indicated by the black arrows). In contrast, the biggest losers were trust (-13%) and joy (-6%) (see figure 1 indicated by grey arrows) (Greyling & Rossouw 2020). 

These are the results of Prof Talita Greyling (University of Johannesburg) and Dr Stephanie Rossouw (Auckland University of Technology) who in collaboration with Afstereo launched South Africa’s Happiness Index in April 2019 and recently expanded their study to include the analysis of the emotions of South Africans.  

Why are South Africans so angry?  From the analyses of the Tweets (see www.gnh.today) the team (Greyling & Rossouw, 2020) found the following:

  • Mad at police and military, because of the aggressive and violent manner the COVID – regulations are enforced.
  • Angry about people being greedy and making money out of COVID-19, when the country is suffering.
  • Angry at government playing politics in a time of fear, and uncertainty about the future.
  • Mad about Moody’s downgrade to junk status, “kicking the country when it is already down”.
  • Angry about being isolated, cut-off and no way to release stress or alleviate depression and anxiety.
  • Concerned about the increase in domestic violence, interesting not only men towards women, but among all members of the household.
  • Mad at not being able to buy alcohol (previously also cigarettes).
  • Being stuck at home and then also having to endure loadshedding
  • Lack of groceries after the rich has bought everything
  • God is mad, this is a sign of His wrath

Is there anything that South Africans are positive about at the moment? Well, it seems that in true South African spirit we cling to the silver lining in this storm that threatens to swallow us. “Family time” seems to be one of the few positives. In this never-ending rat race, being able to spend quality time with our loved ones seems to be our saving grace. Other positives mentioned are “time for self-reflection” and “time to turn to God”.

If we turn to the Happiness Index itself, which measures the sentiment levels of South Africans on a scale from zero to 10 J, with 5 being neutral (neither happy or unhappy) (see www.gnh.today), we note that the index stays under pressure. After the significant lows on the days before-, on- and after the announcement of the lockdown (23 March 2020), there was a short lived increase in happiness levels, as people rushed to shops and their home towns/steads (migrating out of the cities), in anticipation of the lockdown. However, the happiness levels soon returned to the “new lows” we have been experiencing since the announcement of the first COVID-19 patient in South Africa (see figure 2).

As reality sinks in and the health and livelihoods of South Africans’ come under threat, it becomes clear that “Twenty Plenty” has made a 180-degree turnaround to “Twenty Catastrophe”.  

Reference
Greyling T. & Rossouw S. 2020. Gross National Happiness Project. Afstereo (IT partner). University of Johannesburg (funding agency). Pretoria, South Africa. www.gnh.today.

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Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families largely do not claim their benefits.

Posted on April 1, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families to find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 501, 2020

Who’s declining the “free lunch”? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits – Download PDF
by Nguyen, Ha Trong & Le, Huong Thu & Connelly, Luke B.

GLO Fellows Ha Nguyen, Huong Le & Luke Connelly

Author Abstract: Recent economic literature has advanced the notion that cognitive biases and behavioral barriers may be important influencers of uptake decisions in respect of public programs that are designed to help disadvantaged people. This paper provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey linked to administrative data with accurate information on eligibility and uptake, we find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits. These actual uptake rates are about half of the targeted access rates that were announced for them. We provide new and robust evidence consistent with the idea that cognitive biases and behavioral factors are barriers to uptake. For instance, mothers with worse mental health or riskier lifestyles are much less likely to claim the available benefits for their children. These barriers to uptake are particularly large in magnitude: together they reduce the uptake rate by up to 10 percentage points (or 36%). We also find some indicative evidence about the presence of the lack of information barrier to uptake. The results are robust to a wide range of sensitivity checks, including controlling for possible endogenous sample selection.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious

Posted on March 31, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 500, 2020

Paradise Postponed: Future Tense and Religiosity – Download PDF
by Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar & Weber, Clas

GLO Fellows Astghik Mavisakalyan & Yashar Tarverdi

Mavisakalyan, Astghik

Author Abstract: This paper identifies a new source of differences in religiosity: the presence of future tense marking in language. We argue that the rewards and punishments that incentivize religious behavior are less effective for speakers of languages that contain future tense marking. Consistent with this prediction, we show that speakers of future-tensed languages are less likely to be religious and to take up the short-term costs associated with religiosity. What is likely to drive this behavior, according to our results, is the relatively lower appeal of the religious rewards for these individuals. Our analysis is based on within country regressions comparing individuals with identical observable characteristics who speak a different language.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Globalism and Chinese lessons from the Coronavirus crisis. Interview with CCG President Henry Wang.

Posted on March 30, 2020 by admin

The world struggles about a convincing strategy to handle the #coronavirus crisis and reflects the consequences thereafter: What are the recommendations from Beijing’s top policy advisor Henry Wang?

  • The most important thing is taking decisive and comprehensive action as soon as the virus starts to spread.
  • New formats of internet business, including online medical services, online education, and working at home through online apps, have grown significantly.
  • The virus may rebound if we relax our vigilance.
  • The pandemic reveals not the failure of globalization, but the need to innovate global governance systems and boost international cooperation.
  • In the long run, the movement of labor and talent has created more benefits than problems.

GLO Fellow Huiyao (“Henry”) Wang is a Professor and President of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), the largest non-government think tank in China. CCG and GLO are collaborating institutions.

  • Henry Wang

Interview

GLO: China seems to have managed the Corona Crisis. What are the major lessons?

Huiyao Wang: I think the most important thing is taking decisive and comprehensive action as soon as the virus starts to spread. The non-pharmaceutical measures China took might seem economically damaging at first, but it is that the sacrifice gave us a better chance to control the pandemic as quickly as possible. If we had underestimated the coronavirus, the potential losses could have been far greater. 

And another thing is the well-equipped internet infrastructure and the thriving internet industries that played a big role in distributing medical resources and basic supplies for people in quarantine during the coronavirus outbreak. Additionally, new formats of internet business, including online medical services, online education, and working at home through online apps, have grown significantly. These businesses helped to allow society to continue operating and lowered the economic pressure so that we could keep the economy going while employing social distancing.

GLO: Will the virus come back?

Huiyao Wang: I think there’s a chance that the virus rebounds if we relax our vigilance. Although China has made it to contain the coronavirus overall, it is too early to relax now due to the global outbreak. We can see that there are dozens of new cases appearing every day, mostly coming from other countries. The Chinese central government and local governments as well as every citizen are staying cautious and alert.

In this special time, all countries should work together and spare no effort against the virus, in line with the joint statement achieved at the G20 summit several days ago. Like President Xi Jinping said, we should build a community with shared future for mankind, since globalization has tied countries together. Discrimination and hatred will not do any good when facing the challenges brought by the virus, and other transnational challenges like climate change.

GLO: Some say the pandemic is the curse of globalism, did it go too far?

Huiyao Wang: The coronavirus indeed has caused a global crisis, however, if we believe globalization will go reverse or countries should decouple to protect themselves, then we are wrong. Coronavirus is just one of the global challenges that we are facing. Climate change, environmental degradation, WTO reforms – these challenges are all awaiting us and none of them can be overcome without international cooperation, bilaterally and multilaterally. The pandemic reveals not the failure of globalization, but the need to innovate global governance systems and boost international cooperation.

I think the G20 meeting was a good start. On the 27th, President Xi and President Trump had a phone call the day after the G20 meeting. This sent a good signal that China and the US are going to set aside the disputes and work together. Despite the talk about competition between China and the US, I believe the two countries have enough reasons to collaborate. Being rivals will do no good to either country. 

GLO: How can global solidarity look like in this crisis?

Huiyao Wang: I think it failed to meet our expectations somehow at the beginning, but now after the G20, I hope countries can unite and fight against the virus together.

When the outbreak started in China, many countries donated and helped, which was significant for China to control the coronavirus domestically. However, after the coronavirus began to spread globally, global solidarity appeared vulnerable.

After the G20, the countries have presented a joint statement announcing a fund of 500 million US$ to combat the disease and other key messages about reviving the global economy. If these are carried out, I think we will walk out of the shadow cast by the pandemic.  

GLO: The Coronavirus is a strike of nature against globalism: What is its future, in particular for labor migration?

Huiyao Wang: I think it is short-sighted if we blame the outbreak on labor migration, since the cause is more complex than that and we could have taken better precautions to avoid it. In the long run, the movement of labor and talent has created more benefits than problems.

I think we should improve and innovate the global governance of migration rather than go against it. Especially, we should establish an emergency mechanism to regulate transnational movement of people when an outbreak occurs like this time to minimize the impact.

*************
With Huiyao Wang spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President.

Related GLO research:
Yun Qiu, Xi Chen & Wei Shi (2020): Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, GLO Discussion Paper, No. 494.

See also the recent GLO – Interview with GLO Fellow Xi Chen of Yale University.

Henry Wang (right) & Klaus F. Zimmermann at the CCG Headquarter in Beijing in December 2019 during a previous visit.

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New survey on Life with Corona. An invitation to participate.

Posted on March 29, 2020 by admin

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the COVID-19 disease continue to spread across the world. A new Life with Corona study will provide valuable information for researchers studying the social and economic implications of the Coronavirus pandemic.
LINK to the survey website.

The project is led by GLO Fellow Tilman Brück and his International Security and Development Center (ISDC) in Berlin. ISDC and its Director Tilman Brück are long-term partners of the GLO. GLO congratulates ISDC and Director Brück for this important new initiative at difficult times.

  • Tilman Brück

Life with Corona Study

Have you heard of the new Life with Corona Study?

It is an innovative citizen science project that will help us understand how the Corona crisis is changing our lives. The findings will deliver important insights for policy-makers and researchers into how to better manage and mitigate the crisis.

Based on cutting-edge methodologies, the survey captures the voices and sentiments of citizens around the world.

Be part of the survey now! Just fill in the questionnaire and please forward this call in your networks. The more people participate, the more we know!

#sharethesurveynotthevirus #lifewithcorona

LINK to the survey website.

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WageIndicator Foundation announces CORONA Virus Work Life Survey.

Posted on March 29, 2020 by admin

Amsterdam; 29 March, 2020. The WageIndicator Foundation announces the Continuous Global Online Survey ‘Living and Working in Corona Times’! Press Release.

The WageIndicator Foundation led by GLO Fellow Paulien Osse as the Director, is a long-term partner of the GLO. GLO congratulates the WageIndicator Foundation for this important new initiative at difficult times.

  • Share and Compare Wages, Labor Laws and Career
  • Director Pauline Osse

Continuous Global Online Survey ‘Living and Working in Corona Times’

WageIndicator shows coronavirus-induced changes in living and working conditions in 110 countries. The changes are visualized in maps and graphs. These infographics show, from day to day, the consequences the large majority of the working population of the world experiences, on the basis of answers on the following questions in the Corona survey:

– Is your work affected by the corona crisis?
– Are precautionary measures taken at the workplace?
– Do you have to work from home?
– Has your workload increased/decreased?
– Have you lost your job/work/assignments?

First results show an enormous impact of the coronavirus on work in general. In the Netherlands for instance, a country severely hit, 95 percent of participants in the survey state that their work is impacted by the corona-crisis.

The survey contains questions about the home situation of respondents as well as about the possible manifestation of the corona disease in members of the household. Also the effect of having a pet in the house in corona-crisis times is included.

WageIndicator – a respected partner of GLO – is a non-profit foundation, which aims to share and compare wages and labour law on a global scale through its national websites in 140 countries with millions of web visitors. WageIndicator’s web visitors are invited to complete the survey on Living and Working in Corona Times. The survey reaches out to all people in working age, contracted, self-employed and unemployed alike.

WageIndicator’s online infrastructure is built up over the past two decades and consists of online and offline surveys and data collection. For this particular survey, the international WageIndicator team cooperates with academic research institutes from half a dozen countries. The survey asks the same questions across countries. Therefore WageIndicator is able to closely monitor the development of the corona crisis and its impact on the world of work.

WageIndicator has rolled out its survey on March 26, 2020. From March 31 onwards WageIndicator maps changes in 110 countries, shown permanently online and updated each day.

Crucial links:
For the list of participating countries. Do the survey and find the results!
Link project page and team.
Contact: office@wageindicator.org
+31 6 539 77 695

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Game of Prejudice – how to fight taste-based discrimination.

Posted on March 28, 2020 by admin

A new GLO Discussion Paper provides evidence based on field experiments for the Roma community in Europe that when the cost of taste-based discrimination is made sufficiently high, such behavior disappears.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 499, 2020

Game of Prejudice – Experiments at the Extensive and Intensive Margin – Download PDF
by Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Vecci, Joe & Želinský, Tomáš

GLO Fellow Mani Subha

Author Abstract: In an unique lab-in-the-field experiment we design a novel labor market environment, the Game of Prejudice, to elicit preferences for discrimination towards the largest minority group in Europe (the Roma) at the intensive margins as well as at the extensive margins. Our unique experiment design allows us to separate taste-based discrimination from statistical discrimination and examine the impacts of raising the costs of discrimination in such situations. We find discrimination to be commonplace at both margins, with stronger incidence at the extensive margin. We also find higher incidence of taste-based discrimination compared to statistical discrimination. Importantly, we find that when the cost of taste-based discrimination is made sufficiently high, such behaviour disappears at the intensive and extensive margins, providing support for labor market policies that make discrimination very costly for the employer.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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Coronavirus and the Future of Work: Interview with the Brazilian Daily ‘Valor Econômico’

Posted on March 28, 2020 by admin

Background interview with Diego Viana, reporter of the Brazilian daily Valor Econômico, who publishes a story on the relationship between the #Coronavirus Crisis and the future of work. Valor Econômico is the largest financial newspaper in Brazil.

A Federal Reserve official estimated a hike in unemployment of up to 30% in the second quarter for the United States. Is this the kind of figures we should be expecting worldwide? How calamitous is this? If the economy recovers quickly, does it leave long-term scars?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: The impression currently is that the damage will be much larger than during the Great Recession in the financial market crisis where the effects were substantially smaller and much more selective to economies and societies. There cannot be a fast recovery, and society will have to carry a long-term burden.

Can the incentive measures announced so far in the US, Europa, Asia, aimed at reducing the dimension of the economic slump, avoid a depression-like scenario of mass unemployment?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: A focus is on compensation (“whatever it takes for everybody”) and to stabilize jobs; but at the same time public life and large parts of production and consumption have been stopped on command. This is not the setting to avoid mass unemployment, just to make it more acceptable. The pressing question, however, is how long the available financial reserves of countries will allow governments to keep such a policy going.

With many people around the world working from home, some analysts see the epidemic as precipitating a trend towards an increase in remote working. Is this the case? Once the coronavirus crisis is over, will home office have become much stronger, maybe to the point where half of the time spent working is outside the office?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Remote working will get some push, since the available technology now meets the forced increased demand with some persistence. But I nevertheless expect the adjustments to be small. Since two decades people speculate about the rise of the home office and the end of the traditional firm, with only slow practical changes. For instance, digital communication is no substitute for personal social interactions. Also the recent financial market crisis did not sufficiently change the constraints of the banking sector.

As autonomous workers are particularly exposed to a halt in activities, some analysts see the crisis as demanding – or rather precipitating a preexistence demand for – improved forms of social protection for these workers. What could be done for them in the short term, i.e. the acute moment of this crisis? And in the long term, is there anything in view that would correspond to unemployment insurances?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Social protection for freelancers as the rising work model including health and unemployment is since long recognized as a challenge issue for the future of work. In the current acute crisis, many governments have already decided to offer self-employed individuals and all types of companies generous credit lines or even fixed amounts of non-repayable transfers.

Hong Kong, and now probably the US as well, are adopting a strategy of depositing a lump sum for everyone, which sounds like an emergency basic income. I reckon you are not in favor of a universal basic income, but how do you evaluate an emergency mechanism such as this one?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: All kinds of helicopter money and government transfers to everybody may help to stabilize consumer demand. But such measures are not helpful at this very moment where most government commands aim at social distancing and lower consumption. Such measures could be useful, however, to jump-start the economy after the end of the Corona pandemic. 

Maybe I should wrap up the themes of all the previous questions into a more general one: for some, this pandemic will usher in a new “great transformation” in Polanyian terms, with a new form of welfare state, adapted to the 21st century. Could this be the case? Is it possible to give the outlines of what such a welfare state would be like?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: The much I am a believer of the old saying, “Never let a good crisis go to waste”, I am afraid that the Corona Crisis will not initiate the new welfare state needed for the 21st century. What we see will strengthen anti-globalism, nationalism and populism. One can only hope that the global threat of this disease reminds us of the benefits of collaborations and solidarity.

Another attempted response is the reduction of working hours and pay, but many economists consider that this is not a regular crisis and the effect of reduced hours would not be as expected (and may even backfire). Do you see this as a sound possibility?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Creating jobs for all and re-distributing income through the current reduction of working hours and pay is a bad strategy in the middle and longer perspective, since it can only backfire to keep the most productive underemployed.

Labor conditions in the developing world are already much worse than in the developed world. Do you envisage an even more dire scenario in these countries?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Core in this crisis is the strength of the health care system of the countries. Given the large differences between the developing and the developed world in health care, I am afraid, global inequality will rise with the Corona Crisis.

Another vulnerable category is that of immigrants, as they often occupy the worst positions in the labor market and also frequently lack any rights at all. How hard can we expect them to be hit?

Klaus F. Zimmermann: Refugees and labor migrants will both be affected strongly, since the short-term effects will be followed by even more powerful long-term consequences. Migrant workers, in general, have to fear a higher risk of unemployment and a stronger wage depression if at work. Further: It was now demonstrated that it is (at least seemingly) possible to close country borders, or even the European Union in general. Labor migration has to be expected to further decline with the end of the Carona Crisis.

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