A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that the rising trend in female labor force participation in Australia largely depends on changes in real wages, population composition changes, and changes in labor supply preference parameters.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Female labor force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labor force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labor supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labor force participation.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes in Canada, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. Reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we document the short-term impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes in Canada. Following a pre-analysis plan, we investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. We find that COVID-19 had drastic negative effects on labour market outcomes, with the largest effects for younger, not married, and less educated workers. We investigate whether the economic consequences of this pandemic were larger for certain occupations. We then built indices for whether (1) workers are relatively more exposed to disease, (2) work with proximity to coworkers, (3) are essential workers, and (4) can easily work remotely. Our estimates suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly more severe for workers more exposed to disease and workers that work in proximity to coworkers, while the effects are significantly less severe for essential workers and workers that can work remotely. Last, we rely on a unique survey, the Canadian Perspective Survey, and show that reported mental health is significantly lower among the most affected workers during the pandemic. We also find that those who were absent form work because of COVID-19 are more concerned with meeting their financial obligations and with losing their job than those who remain working outside of home, while those who transition from working outside the home to from home are not as concerned with job loss.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
T. Paul Schultz is the Malcolm K Brachman Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University. With a BA (1961) from Swarthmore College and a PhD (1966) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he spent most of his academic life at Yale University (since 1974).
He is one of the most outstanding population and development economists of our time. His empirical work has had a huge impact on the profession, in particular he helped to establish economic demography. His research has covered fertility and family planning in developing countries and the fertility transition, household models dealing with health and mortality issues, inequality, migration and gender.
At Yale University, he directed the Economic Growth Center from 1983 – 1996.
T. Paul Schultz is a GLO Fellow since the beginning.
He was a keynote speaker at Yale University on May 11-13, 2018 for the second biennial conference of the China Health Policy and Management Society (CHPAMS), focusing on advances in health policy and health care in China and the United States, an event which was supported by the GLO and organized by GLO Cluster Lead Xi Chen.
For a decade (1991 – 2001), he acted as an Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, and (since 2202) still provides his advice and support as an Associate Editor of this journal.
On May 24, 2020, T. Paul Schultz is celebrating his 80th birthday; the GLO and the Journal of Population Economics express their respect for his immense lifelong achievements and their huge gratitude for the tremendous support received.
Congratulations and best wishes for a healthy, enjoyable and productive future!
A new GLO Discussion Paperinvestigates the impact of Covid-19 on working from home and the consequences in Italy: working from home tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The recent global COVID-19 pandemic forced most of governments in developed countries to introduce severe measures limiting people mobility freedom in order to contain the infection spread. Consequently, working from home (WFH) procedures became of great importance for a large part of employees, since they represent the only option to both continue working and keep staying home. Based on influence function regression methods, our paper explores the role of WFH attitude across labour income distribution in Italy. Results show that increasing WFH attitudes of occupations would lead to a rise of wage inequality among Italian employees. The opportunity of WFH tends to benefit male, older and high-paid employees, as well as those living in provinces more affected by the novel coronavirus.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that immigration indeed decreases far-right votes in Finland and provides an explanation.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party’s vote share by 3.4 percentage points. Placebo tests using pre-period data confirm this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. Turning to potential mechanisms, immigration is found to increase voter turnout, potentially activating local pro-immigration voters. Moreover, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants, consistent with the intergroup contact theory. Finally, I also provide some evidence for welfarestate channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents that entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. It argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, contribute to this.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. This comes as a surprise: many scholars have anticipated an upsurge in entrepreneurship, and expected an “entrepreneurial economy” to replace the post-WW2 “managed” economy. Instead of the “entrepreneurial economy” what has come into being may perhaps better be labelled the “ossified economy.” This paper starts by document the decline. It then critically presents the current explanations offered in the literature. While having merit, these explanations are proximate and supply-side oriented. Given these shortcomings, this paper contributes a new perspective: it argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, are also responsible. Implications for entrepreneurship scholarship are drawn.
A new GLO Discussion Paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Household consumption surveys do not typically cover refugee populations, and poverty estimates for refugees are rare. This paper tests the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad, by combining United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees survey and administrative data. The proposed method offers poverty estimates based on administrative data that fall within a 95 percent margin of poverty estimates based on survey consumption data. This result is robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error term. The method outperforms common targeting methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method currently used by humanitarian organizations in Chad.
A new GLO Discussion Paper replicates two published articles by seven independent research teams each to document the huge variety of different research strategies chosen and their large differences in outcomes.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Researchers make hundreds of decisions about data collection, preparation, and analysis in their research. We use a many-analysts approach to measure the extent and impact of these decisions. Two published causal empirical results are replicated by seven replicators each. We find large differences in data preparation and analysis decisions, many of which would not likely be reported in a publication. No two replicators reported the same sample size. Statistical significance varied across replications, and for one of the studies the effect’s sign varied as well. The standard deviation of estimates across replications was 3-4 times the typical reported standard error.
Like in the financial market crisis, the world struggles again in the #coronavirus crisiswith data needs to proper respond to the challenges. Why are data so important, and why are social media data not a simple solution? Some insights from an interview with data scientist Pablo de Pedraza.
Some core messages of the interview:
Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. The data flow in a data economyis semicircular – from households and firms to data holders, but not back.
If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount.
Many agents that could generate valuable knowledge do not have enough access to data.
The more citizens are responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus.
In a data economy, the race for innovation is a race for data.
A related new research paper of Pablo de Pedraza on the topic is:
The first use of social media data for policy analysis in response to data needs in a huge crisis has been made in the context of the 2009 financial market crisis:
GLO FellowPablo de Pedraza (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre) is an Economist interested in the use of web data for economic research. His research interests are web data, life satisfaction and the semicircular flow of the data economy. The scientific output expressed does not imply a European Commission policy position. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.
Middle photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
Interview
GLO:What is the “data economy” and its “semicircular flow”?
Pablo de Pedraza: The “Data economy” is an economy where data plays a crucial role. From a consumption perspective, personal data is similar to money; citizens pay online services with their data. From a production point of view, data is like oil; a raw material to produce digital services. Data is a source of economic growth and innovation. Theoretical economic concepts also apply to the “data economy” which has its own market failures. The “semicircular” flow is a theoretical model that aims to simplify the complex reality of the “data economy.” It facilitates discussion about the why and how of data policy. The general idea is that the data flow is semicircular; from households and firms to data holders, but not in the other direction. Households and firms receive data-driven services that are the result of knowledge extracted from data. If citizens would receive data, they would not have the capacity to process nor extract knowledge from that data. One of the objectives of data policy is to empower the individual.
GLO:Why is the level of knowledge below the socially desirable amount?
Pablo de Pedraza: The question is whether the process of extracting knowledge from data is a natural monopoly, which is an empirical question for which we have no answer yet. We can observe how data holders like large technology companies behave. They are data hungry, in the search for the perfect marketing tool. In econometric terms, they are in a race towards N=All and X=everything. If knowledge extraction from data is a natural monopoly, and data holders are profit maximization agents and monopoly theory holds, the amount of knowledge generated is below the socially desirable amount. Therefore, public intervention should focus on increasing knowledge generation. What kind of knowledge? Data is a different type of good depending on the kind of knowledge generated. Using data to generate market power is a demerit good. Data is a merit good if used: to deliver nimbler public policy, to protect competitive markets, to forecast economic cycles, to protect consumer’s rights, and study a pandemic.
GLO:Some people say, we have enough data, but not the right one….
Pablo de Pedraza: The data economy has its own sources of access inequalities similar to income inequalities. Many agents that could generate merit knowledge, such as the scientific community, central banks or anti-trust authorities, do not have enough access to data. For example, research literature shows how online searches can improve forecasting models. One of the main conclusions from that literature is that better understanding of results needs the disclosure of more data. More accurate forecasting is an example of merit knowledge that benefits the whole society, including data holders.
GLO:Can your theory help us to understand the data challenge in the coronavirus crisis?
Pablo de Pedraza: Yes. Think about mobile apps to track Covid-19. The more citizens responding to Covid-19 apps, the more data and knowledge we have about the virus. The semicircular flow of the economy defines the data sharing Laffer curve. It explains the theoretical determinants of optimum data sharing as the point where society generates the maximum amount of data and merit knowledge. Principles that define the curve, such as trust, apply to the covid-19 data challenge. When citizens understand the data dimension of the economy and trust the rule of law, they are more willing to contribute to a solution, install the app, and give consent to share their data. If they do not understand what they are giving their consent for, they will be hesitant to install the app and therefore; data generated will be lower and knowledge will be below the socially desirable amount.
GLO: What are the conclusions for data sharing policies?
Pablo de Pedraza: In a data economy, the race for innovation is the race for data. Leaving data policy only in the hands of data holders will not solve antitrust concerns. The lack of competition stifles innovation although it may initially attract investment. However, excessive intervention discourages investment from data holders and generate surveillance concerns. Countries able to empower well-informed citizens by developing their data literacy, fostering user centric approaches, building strong public data infrastructures and institutions will win the race. Citizens operating in a secure environment will generate more data and increase innovation. In my opinion, data sharing policies are just as vital and important as fiscal and monetary policies. The semicircular flow of the economy is a data sharing theoretical framework. The data dimension of the covid-19 crisis is an illustrative example of that framework.
************* With Pablo de Pedraza spoke Klaus F. Zimmermann, GLO President. Further activities and reports of the GLO Research Cluster on the coronavirus.
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) intensify their collaborations, as IESR DirectorShuaizhang Feng and GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann have declared.
IESR Director Shuaizhang Feng has been appointed GLO Country Lead China. IESR provides institutional support as a GLO-related institution and serves as a local host for GLO activities.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference.IESR and GLO are jointly organizing a virtual conference on the economic issues of Covid-19. The event is a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers. Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University). The Virtual Conference takes place on June 5-7, 2020. Deadline for paper submission is May 24. MORE INFO.
Journal of Population Economics: Klaus F. Zimmermann is Editor-in-Chief; Shuaizhang Feng one of the Editors.
IESR-GLO Conferences 2018 – 2020.
2020 June 5-7: Guangzhou, Jinan University, China.Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference on “The Economics of Covit-19”. Virtual event. MORE INFO.
2019, March 21-22: Guangzhou, China. Jinan University.IESR-GLO Conference on “Belt and Road” Labor Markets. Organizers: Shuaizhang Feng and Klaus F. Zimmermann. A focus was China, South Asia and South East Asia. GLO News Report. IESR Report LINK WEBSITE.
2018, March 11-20: Guangzhou/China; Jinan University; Research and contact visit of the GLO President. Career seminar provided by the GLO President. First GLO-IESR Conference on “Labor Economics” and various paper presentations by GLO Fellows. Public Policy Lecture of the GLO President on European Migration. Debate with Editor of “Social Science in China” by the GLO President and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics. Debate with Dean & GLO Fellow Shuaizhang Feng by the GLO President on unemployment.
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