A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that in China institutional trust has been an important factor influencing adequate preventive behavior and seeking formal medical care during the COVID-19 outbreak.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the associations between institution trust and public response to the COVID-19 outbreak. An Internet-based, cross-sectional survey was administered on January 29, 2020 to the epicenter Hubei province, China. A total of 4,393 adults who ≥18 years of age and residing or working in the province of Hubei were included in the study. The majority of the participants expressed a higher level of trust in the information and preventive instructions provided by the central government than by the local government. Being under quarantine (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80–3.08) and having a high institutional trust score (OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.96–2.53) were both strong and significant determinants of higher preventive behavior scores. The majority of study participants (85.7%, n = 3,640) reported that they would seek hospital treatment if they suspected themselves to have been infected with COVID-19. Few of the participants from Wuhan (16.6%, n = 475) and those participants who were under quarantine (13.8%, n = 550) expressed an unwillingness to seek hospital treatment. Institutional trust is an important factor influencing adequate preventive behavior and seeking formal medical care during an outbreak.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference is held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
Day 2; Saturday. June 6, 2020. Keynote: Charles Manski (Northwestern University) Introduced by Session Chair Yingyao Hu (Johns Hopkins University)
A selection of panelists: Bruce A. Weinberg, Sen Ma, Osea Giuntella, Jubo Jan, and Yubo Yan
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
A new GLO Discussion Paper analyzes the impact of both Covid-19 and the lockdown on happiness in South Africa which is significant.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Amidst the rapid global spread of Covid-19, many governments enforced country-wide lockdowns, with likely severe well-being consequences. The actions by governments triggered a debate on whether the well-being and economic costs of a lockdown surpass the benefits perceived from a lower infection rate. In this regard, South Africa is an extreme case: enforcing very stringent lockdown regulations, while amid an economic crisis. We analyze the impact of both Covid-19 and the lockdown on happiness. We use the Gross National Happiness Index to compare the determinants of happiness before and after the Covid-19 lockdown regulations. Further, we estimate the likelihood of happiness levels in 2020, reaching the average levels in 2019 using two models; one predicting the likelihood after the lockdown was enforced and the other if no lockdown regulations were in place. The results shed light on happiness outcomes in a scenario of lockdown versus no lockdown.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
Keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference is held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
Posted inEvents, News|Comments Off on Second Day: IESR-GLO Joint Conference on COVID-19 with Daron Acemoglu, Charles Manski & 16 paper presenters. Some pictures of yesterday.
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the employment losses in April 2020 across various groups using the U.S. Current Population Survey.Individuals with less education and lower family income experienced much larger employment losses than their more educated and higher income counterparts. Hispanics and blacks were more adversely affected than whites.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: COVID-19 substantially decreased employment, but the effects vary among demographic and socioeconomic groups. We document the employment losses in April 2020 across various groups using the U.S. Current Population Survey. The unemployment rate understates employment losses. We focus on the percentage of the civilian population that is employed and at work. Young persons experienced the largest employment losses. Individuals with less education and lower family income experienced much larger employment losses than their more educated and higher income counterparts. Hispanics and blacks were more adversely affected than whites.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper documents the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders’ compliance in the U.S. using cell phone data.Stay-at-home orders reduce mobility by about 8-10 percentage points; high-trust counties decrease their mobility significantly more than low-trust counties post-lockdown.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: Better understanding whether and how communities respond to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders’ compliance in the U.S. Using cell phone data measuring changes in average distance traveled and non- essential visitation, we find that: stay-at-home orders reduce mobility by about 8-10 percentage points; high-trust counties decrease their mobility significantly more than low-trust counties post-lockdown; and counties with relatively more self-declared democrats decrease significantly more their mobility. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on compliance post-lockdown is especially large for trust in the press, and relatively smaller for trust in science, medicine or government.
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper suggests that people’s mental health may have been severely affected by the lockdowns executed during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led many governments to implement lockdowns. While lockdowns may help to contain the spread of the virus, they may result in substantial damage to population well-being. We use Google Trends data to test whether the lockdowns implemented in Europe and America led to changes in well-being related topic search terms. Using differences-in-differences and a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the causal effects of lockdown, we find a substantial increase in the search intensity for boredom in Europe and the US. We also found a significant increase in searches for loneliness, worry and sadness, while searches for stress, suicide and divorce on the contrary fell. Our results suggest that people’s mental health may have been severely affected by the lockdown.
A related paper using Google Trends has studied the health and wellbeing consequences of the Great Recession:
The Journal of Population Economics welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the Coronavirus Crisis.After fast refereeing, successful papers are published in the next available issue. An example:
A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the causal impact of maternal domestic violence on the nutritional status of young children.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we empirically estimate the causal impact of maternal domestic violence on the nutritional status of her children aged below five years. Using detailed dataset from the current and fourth round of the National Family Health Survey, we find robust evidence that violence experienced by mothers at the hands of her husband significantly increases the likelihood of her children being malnourished. When we focus on identifying the pathways through which domestic violence affect child health outcomes, we find that while domestic violence primarily affects child health via deterioration in maternal health, neglect of children in terms of inadequate provision of essential child care also seem to matter. The results from the heterogeneity analysis finally suggest that the detrimental effect of such violence is significantly less pronounced for children born to mothers who are currently working and are thus empowered.
Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference. The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing a virtual conference on economic issues related to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We provide a platform for economists to exchange ideas on improving responses to Covid-19 through a series of presentations of high-quality academic papers.
We are pleased to announce that the conference will feature keynote addresses by Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University).
The conference will be held from June 5 (Friday) to June 7 (Sunday) through Zoom Webinar.Examine the full program with all speakers and detailed time schedule under https://iesr.jnu.edu.cn/Program_23221/list.htm
The conference is supported by theJournal of Population Economics. The Journal welcomes submissions dealing with the demographic aspects of the coronavirus crisis.
Posted inEvents, News, Research|Comments Off on Third IESR-GLO Joint Conference with Daron Acemoglu (MIT) and Charles Manski (Northwestern University) on COVID-19, June 5-7. Full program & registration code now available.
GLO Policy Brief No. 3 – Special theme: COVID-19 and policy implications
COVID-19 and the Consequences for Free Trade
by Ewa Björling, Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Magnus Lodefalk & Fredrik Sjöholm
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global trade, investment and value chains. There is a risk that newly imposed barriers to international trade and mobility will become permanent. Research shows that veiled protectionism in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic would be associated with greater risks and impede the economic recovery needed to avoid a new economic depression. We argue that failing to reboot free trade and to restore global value chains could aggravate an already difficult and delicate situation in regard to global economic development and poverty reduction. In order to reboot globalization, however, there needs to be a new approach. Simply going over old ground would be insufficient. ____________________
Ewa Björling
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou
Magnus Lodefalk
Fredrik Sjöholm
Ewa Björling, MD, Associate Professor of Virology, Sweden’s Minister for Trade 2007-2014.
Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, PhD, CEO of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.
Magnus Lodefalk, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics, Örebro University; Ratio Institute, Sweden; and Fellow of the Global Labor Organization.
Fredrik Sjöholm, PhD, Professor of International Economics, Lund University, and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden.
What we should know
Restrictions and lockdowns to address the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted international markets and global value chains. The travel and trade restrictions imposed by many countries are extreme and unusual both in nature and their implementation, wreaking havoc on global trade and investment flows. These restrictions have been adopted despite lack of evidence of their effectiveness. Some measures go against the guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Protectionism and anti-globalization tides have been rising already before the COVID-19 pandemic, with Brexit and the China-U.S. trade war, as two examples. The policy response to the pandemic now risks to make the situation worse and constitutes a major disruption to global trade, investment and value chains. Early economic indicators suggest that this disruption is severely hurting growth and employment (Gopinath 2020).
Global poverty and inequality are grounds for justifiable concerns. Research suggests that failing to ensure free and predictable markets would be associated with significant risks to poverty and inequality.
Many policies to combat the coronavirus pandemic are actually causing both short-term problems for fighting the pandemic, as well as risks in regard to economic recovery, employment, development and poverty reduction over the medium and long term (Evenett 2020, Hoekman et al 2020, Zimmermann et al. 2020).
Difficulties in getting supplies of medical equipment have triggered an increased interest in de-globalizing value chains (Miroudot 2020). Already before the pandemic, companies and countries were considering a regionalization or even a nationalization of global value chains. This due to a more adverse trade policy environment, rising wages in manufacturing strongholds and technological advances, e.g., in automation.
The state of free trade in the wake of COVID-19
Unilaterally imposing high travel and trade barriers creates uncertainty for exporters and importers of goods and services, as well as for foreign investors. Research indicates that uncertainty about the stability of the rules of the game has a major negative impact on trade and investment, beyond the barriers imposed by the rules themselves (see, e.g., Handley and Limao 2013).
Temporary policies risk becoming permanent. They could become precedents for trade barriers and unilateralism in the future.
Asymmetric timing for when countries reopen and assymetric epidemiological strategies, pose real risks of triggering protectionism (Bown 2020). For example, when one country is back to full production and shipping, countries that still have not reopened their economies will likely face rising pressure to ‘protect’ domestic businesses.
Less-developed countries are more exposed to the risks associated with a failure to reboot and revitalize international trade, investment and value chains. They often face additional difficulties in handling the pandemic itself because of their relatively weaker health care systems. Existing and new trade barriers, such as export restrictions on medical products and food, will exacerbate this situation (Hoekman et al. 2020). Moreover, capital is now fleeing from poor to richer countries. The poorest and most debt-ridden countries can thus be hit twice in the form of the pandemic, and globalization in reverse.
A reboot and a new approach to globalization is needed
In the short term, a coordinated approach among the major economies on measures to address both the pandemic and its economic consequences are needed. A first step should be to tear down the border and trade barriers put up in the wake of the pandemic (Stellinger et al 2020).
In the short to medium term, it is necessary to formulate a strategy to reduce the risks from asymmetric timing in reopening and from differences in the fight against the pandemic.
A head-on measure would be to introduce a new free trade and investment agreement that abolish all tariffs and other barriers to trade and investment in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other equipment used to prevent or combat pandemics (Bown 2020b, Stellinger et al 2020).
Business leaders should act to encourage more resilient and sustainable global value chains, for example by having more suppliers, warehouses and using modern technology to monitor the chains and their resilience in real time (Miroudot 2020). This would be a win-win for the climate and for economic growth.
Governments must refrain from top-down attempts to address current and future difficulties of getting supplies by reshoring production of various goods and services (Stellinger et al. 2020). There is ample research on the harmfulness of import-substitution policies.
In the longer term, countries need to safeguard both global health and prosperity through common strategies and commitments, concrete measures for future crises and mechanisms for consultations. New and even more serious pandemics cannot be excluded. Countries will have to be able to act quickly, in a coordinated fashion and in a transparent way.
A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism.
Mechanisms for applying and enforcing stringent requirements on countries to live up to standards and obligations put in place to minimize the risk of pandemics should be evaluated.
The concept of sustainability within the global trading system could be extended to encompass not only environmental and social aspects, but also aspects that more clearly impact public health and epidemiological risks. Increased cross-institutional links between bodies such as the WHO and the WTO should also be created to promote knowledge exchange and technical assistance.
The policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted international markets. However, simply restoring free trade would mean ignoring massive human suffering caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A new approach is needed to reboot and revitalize globalization, with the aim to design a system which reduces the risk of both pandemics and protectionism. Leaders and policymakers must make concerted efforts to: carefully lift restrictions on travel and trade while protecting health; commit to liberalize essential trade for fighting pandemics; address how to deal with calls for protecting domestic industries in the presence of asymmetric economic reopening; and sustain international yet resilient value chains. The aim should be to develop the international trading system to both reduce the risks of pandemics and protectionism. __________________
References
Bown, C. (2020a). “COVID-19 could bring down the trading system: How to stop protectionism from running amok.”, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.
Hoekman, B.M., Fiorini, M. and A. Yildirim (2020). “Export restrictions: a negative-sum policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.”, EUI RSCAS Working Paper 2020/23.
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