A new discussion paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term:

Matteo Cervellati (University of Bologna), Uwe Sunde (University of Munich) & Klaus F. Zimmermann (Princeton University and UNU-MERIT)

Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate

Working Paper #604, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section  UNU – MERIT Working Paper # 2016-049                                                                   ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy #226

The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed.

At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development.

The evidence presented in the paper suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Ends;

“Die Auswirkungen der Zuwanderung auf den Arbeitsmarkt”

Unter starker Beteiligung der universitären und außeruniversitären Öffentlichkeit fand die Veranstaltung im Senatssaal der Universität zu Köln statt.

Die beiden Referenten waren sich einig: “Die Zuwanderung nach Deutschland geht mit großen Herausforderungen einher, birgt aber auch Chancen. Entscheidend wird die Integration der Zuwanderer in die Erwerbsgesellschaft sein. Eine zügige Integration der zugewanderten Menschen in den Arbeitsmarkt erscheint auch aus integrations- und sozialpolitischen Gründen dringend geboten.”

Zentrale Thesen von Zimmermann und seine Literaturhinweise.

Zimmermann warb auch für sein neues Buch, das belegt, daß die EU -Osterweiterung positive Wirkungen für die europäischen Arbeitsmärkte hatte:

Kahanec, Martin, und Zimmermann, Klaus F. (Eds.), Labor Migration, EU Enlargement, and the Great Recession, Springer 2016.

Zimmermann nach der Diskussionsveranstaltung am Kölner Hauptbahnhof:

Eva Welskop-Deffaa vom Bundesvorstand ver.di

Steffen J. Roth, Geschäftsführer des Instituts für Wirtschaftspolitik an der Universität zu Köln

ENDS

Kahanec, Martin, and Zimmermann, Klaus F. (Eds.), Labor Migration, EU Enlargement, and the Great Recession, Springer 2016.

A flyer can be found here. More details: Further information!

Recent European migration has provided insights: EU enlargement and internal mobility has not caused Europe a problem, to the contrary it was beneficial. These findings were ignored in the public Brexit debate.

Zimmermann leaving CEPS on July 5, 2016:

ENDS

“Europe is facing a large number of challenges. Its labor force is aging and shrinking. It is economically and politically threatened by the rise of Asian states. It is disorganized and unable to cope with the euro, refugees, terrorism, and the Ukrainian war, and suffers large delays in joint decision-making—if decisions come at all. For years, we have witnessed a rise in EU-skepticism and an ever larger mistrust in European institutions, while anti-
European right-wing parties grow stronger. Hence, Brexit may be seen as a “luxury crisis,” adding to the present disaster and not solving any of the existing problems.

The Brexit would leave a different European Union in its wake. With a loss of about 13 percent of its population and 15 percent of its earnings, the European Union would be a significantly less powerful economic zone. The voting balance between the north and the south would also shift: currently, the northern and the Mediterranean countries have blocking minority votes. The remaining north would face a larger demand for transfers by the lesser-endowed countries in the south and east. Other country-members could leave, and without a common vision the European idea would collapse.

However, an EU disintegration after Brexit is not a likely possibility. While it would probably be a coup to clear the table, we can re-invent the European idea with a better integration and identity strategy that would allow for a more dynamic union. A new flourishing core of Europe could establish the European dream with new trade zones
with the north and the south of the Mediterranean. Turkey could join the new European Union, thereby strengthening the southern element of the community with a large diaspora already present in the current union. In the sequence, the Scots would probably leave the United Kingdom to join the new Europe.

The core of the current crisis is the hesitation of the member states to strengthen the political integration strategy. With the British “no,” the countries left behind after Brexit can develop much faster. The current challenges call for a Europe as a whole, and less for national sovereignty. Europe needs more burden-sharing, more migrants to deal with aging societies, and more labor mobility to increase welfare.

To deal with the dissatisfaction with European institutions, which are part of a larger mistrust in government in general, less bureaucratic interference is needed in matters that can be done at the national level. Essential parts of the European model like the common market as well as reliable solidarity and reciprocity foundations should be strengthened. The further development of the European identity is essential.”

Other contributions:

• The risk of Brexit: an opportunity for the EU?, Policy Network, February 11, 2016. (Authors: Jo Ritzen and Klaus F. Zimmermann.)
• Brexit, Europe & the Economics of Migration, UNU-MERIT, June 23, 2016. (Klaus F. Zimmermann.)

Zimmermann at the Boston waterfront.

Die neueste Ausgabe von “Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte” (APuZ), der Beilage zur Wochenzeitung “Das Parlament“, beschäftigt sich mit dem Thema “Arbeit und Digitalisierung“. Der Leitbeitrag stammt von

Ulf Rinne und Klaus F. Zimmermann: Die digitale Arbeitswelt von heute und morgen, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte” (APuZ), 66. Jahrgang, 18-19, 2. Mai 2016, 3 – 9.

Der Gesamttext der Ausgabe kann kostenfrei bei der Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung abgerufen werden oder ist auch hier verfügbar.

Der Beitrag steht auch im Kontext zu einer Öffentlichen Ansprache von                   Klaus F. Zimmermann zum International Labor Day May 2015 über                                  “The Big Trade-Off in the World of Labor”                                                                  (Linkedin Comment, Text,  VIDEO)

In the morning, Professor Phanindra Wunnava had introduced the theme of the conference. He also presented the two keynote speakers and chaired the discussions in their sessions.

The keynote of Solomon W. Polachek (SUNY-Binghamton) addressed the issue “Gender/Racial Wage Gaps: Not Too Well-Known Trends & Explanations”.

Klaus F. Zimmermann (Harvard University and UNU – MERIT), spoke about “Diaspora Economics: Global Challenges and Perspectives”.

Klaus F. Zimmermann (Harvard University and UNU – MERIT) had an active role in the roundtable panels on (i) “The fast-burning Eurozone crisis and global shifts in monetary policies & economic regulation” and (ii) “The slow-burning crisis in EU economic governance and the global debates on macro-economic policies”. He also participated in the discussion with the other two panels.

The public opening panel took place on April 11 at Boston University. The debate on “The Double Edge Sword of Austerity – European Governance since the Eurozone Crisis” saw Laszlo Andor (former EU Commissioner for Employment & Université Libre de Bruxelles), Vivien Schmidt (Boston University), Chair Daniela Caruso (Boston University), and Mario Telo (Université Libre de Bruxelles):

The public closing panel took place on April 12 at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University. The debate on “Governing Europe after the Crisis – Efficiency and Legitimacy Challenges” saw on the panel Frederik Ponjaert (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Ramona Coman (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Laszlo Andor (former EU Commissioner for Employment & Université Libre de Bruxelles), Vivien Schmidt (Boston University), Loukas Tsoukalis (Harvard University) and Joaquin Almunia (former EU Commissioner for Competition & Harvard University):

• Sir Partha S. Dasgupta, Member of the Section “Economics, Business and Management Science” of the Academica Europaea, The Academy of Europe, has been awarded the 2016 John and Alice Tyler Prize of the University of Southern California.
• Sir Richard Blundell, Member of the section “Economics, Business and Management Science” of the Academica Europaea, The Academy of Europe, has been awarded the 2016 Nemmers Prize in Economics of Northwestern University.

Boston University

• Klaus F. Zimmermann participated in two panels of the Enlighten H2020 AGORA Forum organized on April 12, 2016 at Boston University under the theme “Efficiency & Legitimacy of Crisis-born European Modes of Governance” hosted by Vivien Schmidt of Boston University. The themes of the two panels were (i) “The fast-burning Eurozone crisis and global shifts in monetary policies & economic regulation” and (ii) “The slow-burning crisis in EU economic governance and the global debates on macro-economic policies”.

Middlebury College

• On April 16, 2016 Klaus F. Zimmermann will be a keynote speaker at the Middlebury College Symposium on “The Economics of Skin Tone, Gender, Ethnicity, and Diaspora“. The presentation is on “Diaspora Economics: Global Challenges and Perspectives”.

Preview: Further activities of Klaus F. Zimmermann

• April 19, 2016; Seminar chair and introduction of Miriam Meckel, Editor-in-Chief of the “Wirtschaftswoche”. Seminar on “European Enlightenment Values at Stake:
  Why Individualized Information is Dangerous” at the Center for European Studies, Harvard University.
• April 19 – 20, 2016; visit of Columbia University.
• April 21 – 23, 2016; visit of Yale University.

Labor Supply and Taxation

Richard Blundell
Edited by Andreas Peichl and Klaus F. Zimmermann

Oxford University Press has announced that the book can now be ordered and will be published on May 17, 2016. The work of 488 pages was edited by Andreas Peichl and Klaus F. Zimmermann. Both also wrote the introduction.

• A collection of Richard Blundell’s outstanding research on the modern economic analysis of labour markets and public policy reforms
• Winner of the IZA Prize in Labor Economics 2012
• Up to date analysis of labor market trends, examining differences across the UK, US, and France
• New empirical methods are explained and applied to policy problems
• Modern analysis of tax policy using actual policy reforms
• Includes substantive research contribution

On September 22, 2012, IZA Founding Director Klaus F. Zimmermann awarded the 2012 IZA Prize in Labor Economics to Richard Blundell (University College London and IFS) during the Annual Conference of the European Association of Labour Economists (EALE)  in Bonn. The Prize honors Blundell’s path-breaking contributions to the econometric analysis of labor markets and public policy reforms.

According to the Award Statement, “Professor Blundell has played a major role in the development of modern labor and policy analysis. His work is characterized by a focus on pressing questions in economic policy, the development of cutting-edge econometric methods to tackle such questions, and painstaking analysis of micro data. Blundell’s contributions laid the foundations for the modern economic analysis of labor supply, consumer behavior, and policy reforms.”

Now the relevant articles of Sir Richard Blundell on the topic are collected in a fine selection defining the field.

Kahanec, Martin, and Zimmermann, Klaus F. (Eds.), Labor Migration, EU Enlargement, and the Great Recession

Download the product FLYER.

And why it must be read:

• Addresses some of the most controversial and debated topics in contemporary migration in an enlarged EU, including the effects of the economic crisis
• Deeply rooted in rigorous analysis of hard data, thereby distinguishing myths and reality of EU mobility
• Useful reference and guide for scholars, interested professionals and policy makers
• Strongly opposes to recent policy debates in EU member states on new restrictions for mobility and labor migration

More details about the book:

This volume extends and deepens our knowledge about cross-border mobility and its role in an enlarged EU. More specifically, its main purpose is to enlighten the growing and yet rather uninformed debate about the role of post-enlargement migration for economic adjustment in the crisis-stricken labor markets of the Eurozone and the EU as a whole. The book addresses the political economy aspects of post-enlargement migration, including its broader political contexts, redistributive impacts, but also nationalization of the enlargement agenda. It also covers the experience of receiving and sending countries with post-enlargement migration and its role during the current crisis. Renowned experts in the field study, whether and how post-enlargement mobility has enabled the EU to absorb asymmetric economic shocks, how it has affected the European welfare systems, and whether it has contributed to the sustainability of the Eurozone. The authors also evaluate brain circulation as a sought-after vehicle of improved allocative efficiency of EU labor markets and propose a policy agenda for mobility in an enlarged EU.

This book is completely new frontier research and a follow up of a previous book published 2010 by the same editors and their European teams:

EU Labor Markets After Post-Enlargement Migration

Editors: Kahanec, Martin, Zimmermann, Klaus F.