The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

Interview with Author Yoo-Mi Chin, Professor of Economics at Baylor University

GLO: Is a rise of fertility after a disaster not the expected proper Malthusian response?

Yoo-Mi Chin: It is ambiguous whether we can clearly expect a Malthusian response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. It is true that population might recover from a positive check like diseases by increasing fertility. But after all, HIV is a sexually transmitted disease, and proliferation of HIV may lower fertility by inducing the use of contraception for safe sex. Further, HIV takes a heavy toll on working age adults. Like we see in the case of Black Death, as large-scale mortality causes labor shortages and subsequent higher wages, more women participate in labor market, which would lead to lower fertility. On the other hand, it is also possible that higher wages generate an income effect on the number of children. A lower life expectancy may increase fertility through lower returns to education and the child quantity-quality trade-off. Given such theoretical ambiguity, we find that an empirical examination of the issue is warranted.

GLO: How is fertility affected by a rise in the disease risk?

Yoo-Mi Chin: We find that a doubling of HIV prevalence increased total fertility rate by approximately 1.37 births and increased surviving children by approximately 0.38 children, using distance to the origin of the pandemic as an instrument for HIV prevalence. Although HIV/AIDS likely has increased child mortality, our findings suggest that the increase in births exceeded the increase in child mortality.

GLO: What are the policy implications?

Yoo-Mi Chin: The rise of the HIV/AIDS pandemic appears to have increased total fertility and the number of surviving children. Although the net effect of the pandemic on GDP per capita needs to be more thoroughly examined in future research, the increases in total fertility and the number of surviving children coupled with high mortality of working age adults could potentially lead to increases in dependency ratios and decreases in GDP per capita. Our results suggest that positive externalities generated by HIV prevention efforts might be larger than previously thought in that they contribute not only to reductions in HIV prevalence but also to reductions in total fertility, which could potentially enhance future welfare. Therefore, more resources for HIV prevention efforts are warranted.

The Story

Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic, Journal of Population Economics, 31 (2018), 429–451.

The paper is freely downloadable for a short period.

Abstract: A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

The Author

Yoo-Mi Chin is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Baylor University with a Ph.D. from Brown University. She is also a Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO). Most of her research focuses on the analysis of domestic violence. She has published her previous work in the Journal of Applied Statistics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development, among other outlets. Prior to joining Baylor University, she was an Assistant Professor at the Missouri University of Science & Technology.

2019 Journal of Population Economics: Issues

Issue 2019/1: Is already out! Please see Table of Content: Volume 32, Issue 1, January 2019

The Lead Article is about:
Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016

Issue 2019/2: Will be out in a few weeks. See forthcoming announcements.

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Zimmermann is associated with a number of Springer Nature Journals. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics and Associate Editor or member of the Editorial Board of the following outlets affiliated with Springer Nature: International Economics and Economic Policy, Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, Eurasian Economic Review and Comparative Economic Studies.

BELOW: Discussing the strong performance of the Journal of Population Economics with Barbara Fess from Springer Nature at #ASSA2019. The Journal publishes international research on the economics of population, household, and human resources.

BELOW: Discussing the strong development of the Research Journal Comparative Economic Studies at #ASSA2019: Katie Hall, Associate Editor at Palgrave Macmillan & Springer Nature with Editor Nauro Campos, Brunel University London, and Klaus F. Zimmermann, UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, Bonn University and Member of the Editorial Board. Zimmermann is President of the Global Labor Organisation (GLO), Campos is also GLO Fellow.

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He will attend the Reception of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) of Jinan University, on Friday January 4, 2019, which takes place from 6pm to 8pm, at Hilton Atlanta 217.

Friends of GLO and the Journal of Population Economics participating at ASSA 2019 are invited to this reception and to the prominent Kuznets Prize ceremony, which takes place in the IESR Reception. The Kuznets Prize in a particular year is given to the author(s) of the best paper published in the previous year as judged by the editors. The ceremony will start at about 6.30 pm and will take about 15 minutes. Klaus F. Zimmermann who is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics, will announce some journal news including the 2019 prize winner(s). Then the award plate will be given to the author(s).

The Kuznets Prize ceremony takes place on the invitation of Dean Shuaizhang Feng, Head of the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), who is also a GLO Fellow. A larger number of prominent economists will participate at the reception, including many Editorial Board Members of the Journal of Population Economics and Kuznets Prize winners of previous years.

Zimmermann had been a few times in Atlanta before. In October 2013 he was visiting the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University and provided a public speech.

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